Where a Heat Finals upset would rank this century

The Miami Heat shouldn't be concerned that few people believe they will win the 2023 NBA Finals. The Heat have overcome doubters all postseason and delivering South Beach a fourth championship since 2006 would fit this team's character.

But the Nuggets (-410) are rightfully favored by a considerable margin considering they have the best player in the series, Nikola Jokic. Miami center Bam Adebayo, an All-Defensive Second Team player this season, will have his hands full – but is a dark horse contender to win Finals MVP should the Heat pull off the upset. After all, it's hard to envision Miami winning if Jokic averages 30-10-10 for the series. And Adebayo is the only Heat player that stands a chance of slowing him down.

Jokic isn't the only thing the Nuggets have going for them, however. Denver's supporting cast features multiple former first-round picks, while Miami is relying on undrafted players to fuel its miraculous run.  

Per SportsOddsHistory, Miami (+320) is the largest Finals underdog since the Cleveland Cavaliers (+688) in 2018, when the Cavvs faced the indestructible Golden State Warriors with Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. The only teams other than the Heat with worse championship odds prior to Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 2000-01 are the Philadelphia 76ers (+1600 in 2001), the then-New Jersey Nets (+550 in 2002), the Detroit Pistons (+500 in 2004) and the Cavaliers again (+360 in 2007).

Among those teams, the 2003-04 Pistons are the only one to win the NBA Finals. Overall, eight underdogs have won the Finals since 2000-01, with the Bucks (+160 in 2021) being the last to do so. 

While the pre-Game 1 numbers suggest Miami is the biggest underdog since Detroit in 2004, that might not necessarily be true.

Preseason odds seem insignificant at this time of year, but they have been a better indicator of Finals outcomes since 2001 than odds directly before Game 1.

Data from SportsOddsHistory shows that among finalists since the 2000-01 season, the team with the better preseason odds won the title 76.2 percent of the time, as opposed to 63.4 percent of the time when favored prior to Game 1.

This season, Miami began the year at +1600 while Denver was at +1800. It's worth remembering the Heat finished last season with the best regular season record in the Eastern Conference at 53-29 and were a win away from playing in the NBA Finals.

During these playoffs, they are playing a lot closer to that level than the team that was outscored during the 2022-23 regular season. For that reason, a Heat win might not be as surprising as when the Pistons prevailed over the Lakers in 2004 or the Dallas Mavericks overcoming LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2011. The Cavaliers dethroning a 73-9 Warriors team might even be more stunning.

When it comes to the Heat, nothing they do should surprise us anymore.