There are still moves to be made, with an entire offseason still to go. But already, we can see what’s taking shape. And it’s that the NBA has as much parity as it has at any time in its history — a trend that’s likely to continue.
Still, some teams are giving signals they’re ready to contend. Some are leftover contenders from last year, who are ready to take the next step. Others are liquidating talent for youth (Phoenix Suns, anyone?) and still others are planning for the future, already knowing that 2026 won’t be their year (Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, etc.).
Let’s start with the Eastern Conference. The defending conference champion Indiana Pacers have suffered two massive hits, losing Myles Turner in free agency and Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) for likely all of next season. The window was probably already open in the East. Now it’s been smashed to the point where just about anyone can squeeze through.
An ESPN poll, as of this weekend, predicted that the Cleveland Cavaliers will be the East’s next beasts, and that is indeed a possibility. The Cavs went 64-18 in their first season under coach Kenny Atkinson and are running it back with their core. A few changes/additions around the margins and some serious motivation may be all they need.
Others undoubtedly in play: The New York Knicks with new coach Mike Brown, the Orlando Magic with finally some outside shooting (Desmond Bane) next to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, probably the Milwaukee Bucks assuming Giannis Antetokounmpo stays, and perhaps the surprising and rising Detroit Pistons.
And hey, maybe this is the year the Philadelphia 76ers finally stay relatively healthy and pull it together. While the Pacers and Boston Celtics are expected to drop, the Atlanta Hawks and maybe even Chicago Bulls could be a surprise.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat likely only need another piece, though that piece won’t be so easy to find. The Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards are probably headed for another season of either aiming for the play-in or draft lottery.
Out West, you’d have to think the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder will enter the season as fairly clear favorites. That playoff defense and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are two big reasons to believe in the possibility of a back-to-back.
But the competition will be equally as stiff, if not more so. Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves have made two straight appearances in the Western Conference finals and are at some point destined to get over the hump.
The Houston Rockets landed Kevin Durant, who may have one good run left, and the Denver Nuggets (who gave the Thunder all they could handle) somehow have improved their bench. Oh, and LeBron James, Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers finally got a center in Deandre Ayton.
Then there are the many others on the fence — the L.A. Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. All already have the look of a team that could make a serious run.
Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers are your West darkhorses, seemingly not realizing they’re too young to get very far, and the New Orleans Pelicans are the West’s version of the Hawks. It’s hard to say which way they will go, but either wouldn’t be a big surprise.
Finally, the Sacramento Kings, Suns and Jazz appear to be the three with the most work to do in early July.
Yes, this is an incredibly early synopsis, as a lot can and will happen before the season even arrives. Never forget that teams have all the way until February to make a trade. The rich can get richer, the lottery squads even worse, and injuries and lousy chemistry change the course of what is expected to be a banner year.
Basically, no one has ever won a title on paper, and in this version of the NBA, nearly everyone has some sort of hope. Regardless of what happens next, that is where the league is today.
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