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Which Teams Will Determine NBA Trade Deadline’s Direction?
Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Which Teams Will Determine NBA Trade Deadline’s Direction?

Originally posted on The Lead  |  By Reyaz Ally  |  Last updated Jan 2, 2026 6:45 PM ET

One of the most anticipated dates on the NBA calendar every year is the February trade deadline.

Executives, media members, and fans alike eagerly anticipate the drama and unpredictability the trade deadline brings. The shockwaves from the Luka Dončić trade are still rippling through the league and will continue to shape how front offices and fans approach the deadline moving forward.

This year’s deadline once again promises intrigue, with several teams potentially entering rebuilds after underperforming in a league with parity.

What should you look for in the next couple of months leading up to the deadline? All-Star and superstar players get the most attention at the trade deadline, and for good reason, but it is also important to account for the smaller deals that happen more frequently. The details of the salary cap will play a massive role at every trade deadline.

Teams Looking to Avoid the Luxury Tax

Depending on the market, teams may not want to pay the luxury tax, especially if they are not winning. Teams could also choose to get out of the tax if they are barely over the line, since it would not take much to get under.

According to Spotrac, the luxury tax teams this year are the Celtics, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Knicks, Magic, Sixers, and Raptors.

Out of these thirteen teams, six are at least in the first apron, making it nearly impossible to get below the luxury tax. This leaves the Clippers, Nuggets, Rockets, Lakers, Magic, Sixers, and Raptors as the teams that can realistically get out of the luxury tax through trades.

The most practical teams to get out of the luxury tax are the Clippers, Raptors, and Sixers because they are closer to the tax line and can get under it without sacrificing their main core. The Clippers are also not having a good year, and the Sixers and Raptors, while possible playoff teams, are unlikely to find themselves in title contention.

Outlook on the Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are currently around $2 million above the luxury tax.

While they are a solid team, they are not a title contender, so paying the tax does not make much sense. Toronto could avoid the tax and still improve. Some salaries they could move include RJ Barrett’s $27 million cap hit, along with Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji, who are both in the $5 million range.

According to Mike Scotto of HoopsHype, the Raptors are in search of a center and have unsuccessfully discussed a trade for Nick Richards. Jakob Poeltl was recently extended this offseason, and the big man has not played well. His contract also looks difficult to move unless he is included in a larger package for a player like Anthony Davis or Domantas Sabonis.

Outlook on the Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers sit around $4 million over the luxury tax.

President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey is experienced in navigating the luxury tax in Philadelphia. After a rough season that landed the Sixers in the lottery, Morey cut costs by trading KJ Martin and Caleb Martin last season. Philadelphia could execute a similar move by dealing Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond, or Quentin Grimes, all of whom carry cap hits above $5 million.

Outlook on the Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles is off to a rough start, but a small winning streak and a massive fifty-five-point performance from Kawhi Leonard have the Clippers eyeing a comeback into the playoff picture.

The Clippers sit $6.7 million above the luxury tax. If they continue winning, cutting salaries may not be necessary, as they would need these players to compete. If they decide to reduce costs, moving Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, or Brook Lopez would help them get under the luxury tax.

Los Angeles could also explore a James Harden trade, as reports suggest there are multiple teams interested. The Clippers will need to evaluate their level of competitiveness leading up to the deadline. If they do not see themselves as a playoff contender, they should consider selling, even with no control of their first-round pick.

Trade Routes Run Through Milwaukee

The biggest name every team is monitoring is Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Giannis dealt with a calf injury for most of December. Without him, the Bucks finished 2025 under .500.

Milwaukee does not have a clear second option to pair with Giannis. Myles Turner has not lived up to expectations as a secondary scorer and impact player. Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins have shown significant improvement, but it has not been enough.

According to multiple sources, the Bucks want to keep Giannis and want to add to their roster. They have targeted Zach LaVine, Jerami Grant, and Malik Monk. However, it is unlikely that any of those moves would dramatically change Milwaukee’s outlook. If the Bucks cannot find a way to keep Giannis happy, which ultimately comes down to winning, a split feels inevitable.

Giannis has a contract decision to make in the 2026 offseason. He can sign a three-year extension on top of the two years remaining on his deal. If he chooses not to extend, it would be the clearest signal yet that he prefers to leave.

This article first appeared on The Lead and was syndicated with permission.

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