Who won the Karl-Anthony Towns-Julius Randle trade?

The preseason trade between the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves was fascinating, even in the moment. 

New York, after trading a haul of picks for Mikal Bridges, turned depth and ill-fitting "star" Julius Randle into perhaps the ideal second option in Karl-Anthony Towns; the Wolves turned their much-maligned star into depth and potential cap relief. One team going all in for a Finals berth, the other a conference finalist, perhaps taking a step back with the longer game in view.

And here we are. Both teams are playing for their conference championships, and both teams are trailing 2-0. So, who won this trade?

Given the potential financial flexibility and the first-round draft pick (this year’s 17th pick) that they gained, the Wolves' mark is somewhat incomplete. That said, we still have plenty to assess.

Despite his playoff heater, Randle is nowhere near the shooter that Towns is. However, Towns’ deep impact was somewhat dissipated by playing at the four, next to Rudy Gobert. Randle’s playmaking has traditionally come in fits and starts, though playing next to an all-encompassing force like Anthony Edwards has allowed him to pick his spots a little more, attacking shifting defenses rather than pounding the rock.

When Edwards sits, the Wolves have been a far better team this season than last. When Randle played without Edwards, the Wolves were ranked ninth in offensive rating, per Basketball Reference. Last season, Towns-without-Edwards lineups for the Wolves ranked 22nd. Defensively, the pair is a wash, despite the different tools they bring.

Donte DiVincenzo’s addition can’t be overlooked. The Wolves needed a knockdown movement shooter in the worst way. The gravity that he draws mitigates the complete non-shooting Rudy Gobert, the inconsistency (though he has improved markedly) of Jaden McDaniels and the calcification of Mike Conley.

The Knicks made their intentions clear in acquiring Bridges and then Towns. Let’s not forget, though, that Towns also filled a position of need. Precious Achiuwa is merely a borderline rotation piece, Mitchell Robinson is as likely to play as not and Isaiah Hartenstein’s Early Bird Rights made his re-upping with the Knicks a non-starter.

Towns’ spacing also fit hand-in-glove with the Knicks core. Josh Hart thrives as a cutter and driver; for all his outside shooting, Jalen Brunson is at heart a penetrator; ditto Bridges. That propelled the Knicks to fifth in offensive rating through the regular season, almost an anomaly for a Tom Thibodeau-coached team.

This trade also sets out the Knicks' stall, for better or worse, for the foreseeable future. Their top seven players by minutes played are all under 30, with Robinson (injuries saw him rank 12th in minutes) still only 27. The core is locked in.

Though expensive, the Knicks do have some levers to pull. They avoided the second apron this season and look like doing so again next year. Like Brunson, there are rumors of Bridges taking a discounted deal to keep this group together when his deal comes due. 

Owner James Dolan is a man of many faults, but you cannot question his willingness to spend. Presuming that the Knicks spend into that second apron for the maximum two years before their draft picks are compromised, that gives this roster three more seasons to break through, by which time some of them will be at or near the end of their primes in any case.

So, who won the trade? The Wolves may end up with the overall advantage depending on who they draft and what they do with their proposed financial flexibility, but a draftee may not be ready to contribute in May or June until Gobert is well past his best. Given Minnesota won seven fewer games this season than last, you can’t conclude it has done anything other than go slightly backward in the immediate term.

New York, on the other hand, has an identity and a core that should compete until the end of the decade. Luck often dictates a series. A fluky bounce on a stepback three, and the Pacers win. A devastating injury and the Celtics lose. You just have to be in the race, and the Knicks are.

Advantage: New York. But only just.