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Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) hugs his brother, Bucks forward Thanasis Antetokounmpo (43) Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Why being the favorite to open the NBA playoffs could be a bad thing

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 4/15/23

The Bucks are the favorites to win the NBA Finals this season, a label that could be more a curse than a blessing.

Milwaukee looks to become the first consensus favorite entering the first round to win the NBA Finals since Golden State five years ago.
That was the Warriors' third NBA title with the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. They entered the next postseason in 2019 with the expectation of being a threepeat champion. Instead, they lost in six games to the Toronto Raptors, who entered the playoffs that season at +1400 to win the title.

That kickstarted an era of parity in the NBA we're still seeing. From 2015-19, three teams—Golden State, Cleveland and Toronto—played for an NBA title. From 2020-22, six teams—the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Golden State and Boston—reached the NBA Finals, and none were the favorite entering the playoffs.

The 2020 bubble playoffs didn't feature a clear-cut favorite. While some sportsbooks accurately gave that designation to the eventual-champion Lakers, depending on who was asked, the Bucks or Clippers could also have been considered the favorites.

In 2021, the Bucks won their first NBA title since 1971 when they defeated the Suns in six games. Milwaukee entered its championship run with the six-best odds of winning the title at +800. The Nets entered that postseason as the favorite at +250 before losing in the conference semifinals.

Last year, Golden State was +850 (tied-fourth) entering the first round before winning the title in six over Boston. Entering the playoffs, Phoenix (+255) was the favorite and like Brooklyn, the Suns lost in the conference semifinals.

The Raptors' 2019 win featured the longest odds of any eventual champion since at least 2015 and using that +1400 as a baseline, that would give us six realistic contenders for the title this season. The past four NBA Finals participants—the Bucks (+275), Celtics (+350), Suns (+480) and Warriors (+900)—have the best odds and are followed by the 76ers (+1000) and Nuggets (+1100).

Philadelphia has the likely 2023 MVP in Joel Embiid, while the Nuggets have the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic. And those title odds don't account for Memphis, Sacramento or Cleveland, three young, exciting teams who deserve more respect than oddsmakers are giving them.

The Bucks are a deserving favorite, but they're far from a sure thing. Not only because recent history has been unkind to the favorite but also because there's so much to like about everyone else.

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