Why Rockets are in big trouble. (Hint: It starts with a 'D.')

The Russell Westbrook era in Houston hit a significant bump Sunday when the Rockets got boat-raced by the Miami Heat, losing the first quarter, 46-14, and falling behind, 59-18, at one point in the second. By mid-game, general manager Daryl Morey was probably wishing owner Tilman Fertitta had fired him. 

The debacle in Miami came on the heels of Houston giving up 123 points to the Nets and 158 to the Wizards. No, that game didn’t go into overtime; Houston gave up three 40-plus-point quarters. Neither of those Rockets opponents is an offensive powerhouse. There’s no shame in giving up buckets to Kyrie Irving and Bradley Beal, but the Rockets were shredded by Duncan Robinson and Meyers Leonard and lineups full of rookies.

This isn’t new for the Rockets, but it has never been this extreme. They began last season 8-9 because of injuries, a porous Carmelo Anthony-related defense and the absence of defensive guru Jeff Bzdelik, who had retired but was eventually rehired later in the season to stop the bleeding. In their turnaround, they abandoned a lot of their switching, stars got healthy, and the team improved its defense from bad to average. Of course, in Game 6 of the playoffs, facing a Warriors team missing Kevin Durant, the Rockets were helpless when Golden State ran the same Draymond Green-Steph Curry pick-and-roll over and over to eliminate them.  

Now Bzdelik is in New Orleans, after Morey let him go along with half of Mike D’Antoni’s coaching staff. There’s no obvious Band-Aid for this current staff, especially since Morey has made it clear that he’s not interested in extending D’Antoni, which doesn't do much for his authority in the eyes of the players. It was easy last season to say goodbye to Melo and his minimum salary. It’s not so easy to fix the turnstile backcourt of Westbrook and Harden, who routinely keep the team in games with their offensive heroics but play disinterested defense that often puts them in huge holes. 

Another factor not in the Rockets' favor? They're old and won't get quicker as the season grinds on. Harden is 30, Westbrook turns 31 on November 12 and Eric Gordon turns 31 on Christmas Day. P.J. Tucker is still tough, but he’s 34. Thabo Sefolosha, a 35-year-old defensive wing, comes off the bench, not a good thing. Houston could play 26-year-old Danuel House Jr. more, but ultimately it's going to be hunting for help in the G League or buyout market, because 26-year-old Ben McLemore isn’t going to save the Rockets either.

Houston's defensive downgrade from Chris Paul to Westbrook is significant, and not just in their individual defending. CP3’s absence is seen in the team’s lack of communication, with confusion making stalwart defenders Tucker and Clint Capela look like, well, Harden. Maybe they miss the bonding experience of shooting State Farm commercials together every summer. 

Harden does fine as a post defender, but he struggles against the pick-and-roll, and his defense has already received the Shaqtin’ A Fool treatment. Westbrook’s defense has been a problem since at least the 2016 playoffs, but in OKC it was understandable, given his sizable offensive load and eternal quest for triple-doubles. Now he’s the secondary scorer, but Harden is still having to score 40-plus points for the Rockets to pull out wins –- not a good sign for him getting rest in the regular season.

The Rockets have a defensive rating of 117.17, which would be the worst in the league if it weren’t for the decimated Warriors. (Note: defensive rating is estimated points allowed per 100 possessions.) In 2018, Houston was 18th in defensive rating, down from sixth in 2017-18. For context, the 2018-19 playoff team with the worst defensive numbers was the Clippers, who were 21st in the league with a defensive rating of 112.33. You simply can’t be a legitimate title contender in the NBA without at least an average defense, especially given the ample evidence that Houston’s threes-and-free-throws offense gets bogged down in May.

It’s telling that the Rockets were ultimately exposed by the Heat, who are full of overachieving hustle players and lean heavily on rookie Tyler Herro and G League development projects like Robinson. A team doesn’t get blown out like Houston did without a serious deficit in effort and hustle. 

It’s possible the Rockets' organizational philosophy is hurting them. Last season, House was a valuable wing for Houston on a two-way contract. But when that deal ran out, the Rockets let him languish in the G League for two months before finally guaranteeing his deal, because they wanted to lock him into a three-year minimum contract. (House ultimately signed for three years and $11 million this summer.) In Miami, it genuinely feels like a meritocracy, with starting jobs available to whomever is playing the hardest. James Johnson started 55 games last season, but the Heat still sent him home when he wasn’t in shape. When Harden was out of shape to start the 2015-16 season, Morey fired the coach.

Of course, the other thing Miami has that Houston lacks is Jimmy Butler, for whom Morey famously offered four first-round picks to Minnesota last season. Instead, Butler went to Philadelphia and then took his talents to South Beach, while Morey used those picks to get Westbrook from OKC  (and dump Paul’s mega-deal). It’s hard to imagine Harden waking up at 3 a.m. to work out with Butler (for the record, this is insane behavior), but his skills are much more complementary to Houston’s needs than those of Westbrook, who duplicates many of Harden’s strengths (driving, scoring, rebounds) and weaknesses (allowing a million layups). 

Will Houston be the league’s second-worst defense all season? No, but the Rockets are likely to be a bottom-10 defense unless they make significant changes. Harden can score 40 points a night if he has to drag this team into the playoffs. But if he already must do that in November, the team is in big trouble.