Why The 2026 Lakers Won’t Win A Championship

The Lakers have a severe defense problem. The first issue is that their best players are not great defenders. James might be the best one at 41 years old, but he can only be so consistent.

The other two, Austin Reaves and Doncic, are not good defenders. Los Angeles’ offense has been their calling card in the league. The worst part is that they, especially Doncic, don’t seem to be interested in trying on defense. When playing together, the big three have a defensive rating of 120.5, which would be ranked 29th.

When your best players don’t give consistent effort on defense, it trickles down to the rest of the team. The Lakers, as of March 6th, have a 117.3 defensive rating, which is good for 25th in the league. It’s hard to win games in the clutch when the opposition can get anything they want offensively.

On Thursday Night, the Purple and Gold were out-executed down the stretch by a Denver Nuggets team that has major issues in the clutch. For context, Denver ranks 27th in clutch net rating at the moment, at -12.5. They couldn’t get a stop when they needed it, and that’s one major reason they can’t contend this year.

The roster is also an issue. The only good defender Los Angeles has is Marcus Smart. Otherwise, they have solid shooters, which helps space the offense, but that’s about it. General Manager Rob Pelinka needs to clean house to rebuild around Doncic.

Doncic Is Too Ball Centric

We all know the greatness of Doncic. He is arguably a top-three player in the league today and is a walking triple-double. His play style, however, doesn’t translate to winning at the highest level.

History backs me up on this. A perfect comp is James Harden. He, back in the day, would average north of 30 points per game year in and year out and lead the league in usage. His usage rate in the 2018 season was 36.1%, which is up there with the highest all-time. That Houston Rockets team was bounced in round two.

The Rockets never won the finals or even made one. Michael Jordan, in his early days, averaged 36 points per game like it was nothing. The Chicago Bulls didn’t win until Phil Jackson installed the triangle offense.

In Jordan’s season, where he averaged 37.1 points per game, he had a usage of 38.3%. That Bulls team got beaten in five games in round two. In the dynasty years from 1990 to 1999, his highest usage rate in a season was 34.7%, a significant drop.

It’s not fair to say Doncic has never won at a high level. He has made two conference finals and an NBA finals. To WIN the finals, however, he has to make some adjustments. He is at a point in his career where it’s championship or bust, and it only gets harder each year.

It’s time for the Slovenian Sensation to play off the ball a little more and put some effort into other parts of the game. It’s not unreasonable to correlate his lack of trying on defense to his high usage on offense. His defensive rating has been hovering around 115-115.3, which ranks 187 out of 250 according to the hustle index.

It’s time Doncic buys into a system rather than being the system. He’s still young and has plenty of time to make any necessary adjustments.

End Of Los Angeles Lakers Rant

In 2026, the Lakers have a hard round two ceiling. This team has struggled against winning teams with a 14-19 record. It’s hard to see how they build with James on the roster due to his 52 million dollar cap hit.

The team will have to move on from the 23-year NBA veteran to begin fostering a new regime. In addition to making that move, Los Angeles needs a proper big man.

The De’Andre Ayton experiment has been a total failure. I think the Lakers should start from there and then work their way over to the wings. They can’t squander Doncic’s prime.