Why The Nuggets Struggle Against The Thunder

In terms of personnel, the Thunder have many ways they can beat the Nuggets. A prime example was Monday night. OKC was down Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, so they were forced to play small ball. That, however, worked in their favor because it spread out Denver’s defense.

The Thunder forced Nikola Jokic to work much harder defensively, and Jonas Valanciunas was nearly unplayable if he wasn’t productive offensively. Everyone on Oklahoma City has a respectable three-point shot, which led to them shooting 40% from three, going 19/47.

This type of play style from the Thunder forces Denver to hit shots from outside. With Cam Johnson and Christian Braun struggling from deep, that becomes a recipe for disaster. Conversely, it doesn’t get much easier when Hartenstein and Holmgren are back on the floor.

The game becomes less high scoring and puts less stress on the Nuggets’ perimeter defense. It, however, comes at the price of Jokic’s production significantly dipping. In the 2025 playoff series between these two teams, he shot under 40% three times.

In the first two matchups against OKC, Jokic had just 16 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists. It was by far one of his quieter games in the season. In the second matchup, he had 23, 17, and 14, but did it on 9/25 shooting—another sub 40% game.

In the game where neither big was playing, Joker had 32, 14, 13 on 12/19 shooting. That, however, came at the cost of greater difficulty defensively for Denver.

The Thunder can trot any lineup out against the Nuggets, and it feels like they have a significant advantage in some form.

Unable To Knockout

There’s been an interesting trend that’s taken place in this rivalry dating back to Game Seven of the 2025 series. Denver’s last three games in Oklahoma City have been a tale of starting strong and not being able to sustain it.

In each game, the Nuggets have had a double-digit lead in the first quarter, and the lead has vanished quickly, well before halftime. In that Game Seven, Denver was up 26-16 with one minute to go left in the first quarter. That lead evaporated by the 11-minute mark in the second quarter.

In the first game in Oklahoma City this season, the Nuggets were up 27-13 with just two minutes to go in the first quarter and 33-21 at the end of one. That lead was down to 40-38 midway through the second quarter. That, however, ballooned back to 78-68 late in the third, and somehow became a Thunder lead by the 10:30 mark in the fourth.

Finally, in the game on Monday, Denver came out of the gates red hot as Aaron Gordon was making nearly every shot. They were up 21-8 halfway through the first quarter, and the quarter ended with the Nuggets leading 40-37. At one point, the Thunder went up 48-60 with three minutes left in the third.

Denver did a good job rallying, but that’s besides the point. There’s a common theme of this team not being able to hold any type of lead. The combination of Oklahoma City being able to score at any level and the Nuggets’ poor defense keeps no lead safe for Jokic and company.

It’s a tough spot to be in when you can’t beat a team of OKC’s caliber in the clutch. This Denver team can’t blow out the Thunder, so the wins have to come in the clutch. That, unfortunately, has not been the case as the home team has come out on top down the wire.

End Of My Denver Nuggets Rant

It’s a dangerous time for the Nuggets and Jokic. They sit just 1.5 games ahead of a play-in spot. Their next three games are against the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and Los Angeles Lakers.

The team MUST go 2-1 at least, with the wins being against the Rockets and Lakers, for them to have any shot at the third seed still. Despite the 6-10 stretch in the last 16 by Denver, its seeding is very much in its hands.

Can the Nuggets get it together?