Why Timberwolves own West’s easiest playoff path despite current play-in status

The Minnesota Timberwolves have no reason to panic. While everything may look awful with Minnesota holding the 8-seed in the Western Conference with two games left, this team actually has the easiest path out of any team to make the playoffs and avoid the play-in tournament.

How could this even be possible?

Well, the Wolves played a huge game on Thursday in Memphis. Although Anthony Edwards and his crew didn’t move up in the standings, getting to 47-33 with two games left was essential for Minnesota to try and avoid the play-in tournament.

The Timberwolves defeated the Grizzlies 141-125 in a game that has completely flipped the Western Conference standings without anyone changing position.

Before Friday night’s games across the league, both the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers find themselves with a 48-32 record. Minnesota is in a group with the Golden State Warriors and Grizzlies, one game behind Denver and LA.

Even though the Timberwolves are the 8-seed and don’t own tiebreakers over the Warriors or Grizzlies, they own tiebreakers over the Nuggets and Clippers. This is very important when discussing the different scenarios in the West standings because of pending matchups.

The Clippers will face the Warriors on Sunday, and the Nuggets are playing the Grizzlies on Friday. At some point, the standings are going to change because these teams in the West are going to beat up on one another.

That is when the Timberwolves can make the most of their opportunity, especially with an easy schedule down the stretch.

Minnesota will play the Brooklyn Nets on Friday, followed by the Utah Jazz to close out the season. Both Brooklyn and Utah are tanking for the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and there is no reason why the Timberwolves should struggle in either matchup.

Should the Wolves finish the year with two wins and a 49-33 record, they will be guaranteed to make the playoffs.

Although Denver and LA could win their final two games of the season, that means both Memphis and Golden State would suffer losses. As a result, the Timberwolves could jump both of them for the 6-seed.

If the Grizzlies were to beat the Nuggets and the Clippers beat the Warriors, Minnesota could climb to the 5-seed. There is even a scenario where a five-team tiebreaker in the West results in the Timberwolves getting home-court advantage in a first-round series.

It may not appear as if the Timberwolves control their own playoff fate, but PlayoffStatus is giving them a 68 percent chance of claiming the 4-seed or 5-seed in the conference. That is the best probability out of any other team Minnesota has been going back and forth with, as the Clippers are second at 60 percent.

The task is simple for Edwards and the Timberwolves: win your last two games and wait to see what happens. In this scenario, the worst spot that Minnesota would be in is the 6-seed, which isn’t a terrible spot to be in considering that they have been in the play-in region leading up to the final few games of the regular season.

No team is in a better position right now to make the playoffs than the Timberwolves.