Will Chet Holmgren’s Health Be an Issue Next Season?

Sure, rookies should go all out and be healthy in their first years in the NBA. However, there’s a good precedent for those who have missed out on their rookie years. For starters, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Blake Griffin all missed out on their projected first years (and it’s a trend in OKC so far). If you take a deeper look, two of those are big men who would go on to be forces in the league later on. They experienced injuries, but they sure dominated, too.

In his first two years, Chet is certainly swinging well. He’s already setting records in the NBA Finals, commanding a bigger contract with OKC, and is coming into the season at full strength for the Thunder.

Should Chet Holmgren’s Health Be Tied to Bulking Up?

There’s always the talk about how Holmgren is way too skinny to be a strong center, or how his frame is easily going to get him prone to injuries in the long run. Remember when Giannis Antetokounmpo was just starting out in the league? The Milwaukee Bucks star was a skinny player, too, until he put on some weight and was soon a hammering force in the paint. Embiid is also a strong center, and then there’s Nikola Jokic and his MVPs, which says a lot already.

But don’t get carried away on that fact. Kristaps Porzingis is one of the players whom Holmgren often is compared to because of his frame and size. It is worth noting that the Latvian big man was also prone to injuries—having never played a full season in his career. Still, the Thunder center is doing way better in his first two years than Porzingis.

What about Yao Ming ? The former Houston Rockets big was close to logging three straight 82-season games into his belt. Injuries were a problem, sure, but he was an All-Star for his whole career. In fact, he did not miss a full season after setting foot in the NBA. If you are not impressed, he was also the first rookie to start in the All-Star Game since Grant Hill in 1995.

So what does Holmgren have in common with these big men? They are floor stretchers. They are tall and lengthy enough to defend but still light and agile to be fast enough to either run the floor or cover big spaces. Holmgren is the next generation of unicorns, and being able to play in the Finals in his second year gives him a bigger chance to adjust his game at another level.

Chet Holmgren is More Durable than Most People Think

Before the hip fracture, Holmgren was averaging 18.2 points, 9.2 boards, and 3.0 blocks. Sure, that’s an acceptable range of stats, but did you know that he was also at 52/40/81 shooting splits? That’s nearly a guaranteed DPOY and even an All-Star appearance to begin with. That’s a healthy Chet. However, post-injury was an even more delightful sight, considering that he’s hunted on offense by a lot.

See how that interior defense is standing at a whopping -16.1%? Well, there have been a total of 235 attempts to score on Holmgren over there, and his defense just stands out. He’s been a significant factor in OKC’s defensive success. If there’s one concern about Chet Holmgren, health is not going to be it. After all, some may mock his lanky frame, but that same frame is giving him the flexibility he needs.

Too much weight on the arms will cost his shooting to drop hard—as we have seen in Russell Westbrook, whose jump shot has declined since he bulked up. That jumper allows Chet to space the floor, providing opportunities for his teammates. This opens up a lot of scoring options for both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams to begin with.

This is also an advantage that Holmgren utilizes a lot, especially with big centers giving him a hard closeout. His speed and frame allows him to come up with sudden drives to the rim. That collapses the opponent’s defense and can either easily see him score or let cutting teammates get the bucket.

What’s the Potential for Chet Holmgren Barring Health Concerns?

Should health not be an issue, Holmgren is due for an All-Star campaign this season, and we may be seeing yet another 82-game run from him. After all, he uses his length and frame better and smarter than most people think. If he continues on the same pace he was on in the NBA Finals, we should see him finish strong this year with a lot of potential accolades and records set.

If you’re a betting man, you’re likely going to love the fact that Holmgren was also an MVP candidate in the early ladder of the previous season. Think of the possibility if he hadn’t had an injury to begin with. This is going to be a landmark year for the Thunder center, provided he stays healthy, of course.