2024 Presidential election odds, predictions after latest polls; odds for every state

Kamala Harris Leads in Key Swing States, According to Poll

The latest swing state polling by Quinnipiac has Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by a 51% to 46% margin in Michigan, a 51% to 46% margin in Pennsylvania and a 49% to 48% in Wisconsin.

How do those polls compare to the presidential election odds for each state? According to the betting market, Harris has a 59% to 40% lead in Michigan (-182 to +130), a 51.3% to 48.6% lead in Pennsylvania (-125 to -111) and a 59% to 40% lead in Wisconsin (-182 to +130).

Further down this post, you can find the odds to win each state in the 2024 presidential election, as well as how those odds translate to percentage chances to win the election in every state. Those tables are pretty lengthy, though, so I wanted to put them below a few of these other tables. So first, let's take a look at the odds on how many electoral votes each candidate will win, then we'll circle back to the odds for every state.

Odds on How Many Electoral Votes Harris Will Win

According to the electoral college odds, the likeliest outcome for Vice President Harris is to win between 270 and 299 electoral votes, at 24.54%, which would mean she'd win the election. The next likeliest outcome at 22.79% is for Harris to win between 240 and 269 electoral votes and narrowly lose to Donald Trump.

Odds on How Many Electoral Votes Trump Will Win

The likeliest outcome for Donald Trump, according to the electoral college odds, is for the former president to win between 240 and 269 votes, a 25.56% chance. That would mean a narrow defeat for Trump. The next likeliest outcome is for Trump to win the election with between 270 and 299 electoral votes, which the odds give a 23.73% chance of happening.

Based on the presidential election odds, the most likely presidential election prediction is for Kamala Harris to defeat Donald Trump by winning between 270 and 299 electoral votes.

On that note, here are the 2024 election odds for every state. Buckle up — this is quite a long list as I've broken up the odds and the implied chance to win based on those odds into two different tables to make it easier to read on a mobile device.

Presidential Election Odds for Every State

*BetMGM does not have listed odds for Texas. This does not appear to be because the Lone Star State is all but decided, since states that are polling even more heavily for Trump are on the board. We have reached out to MGM to see if they have any comment. 

OK, that's definitely a lot — which makes sense since, you know, there are 50 states! Also, I apologize to the District of Columbia, as MGM does not have odds on which candidate will win Washington, D.C. You can chalk those three electoral votes up for Vice President Harris, though.

Based on the current odds for every state in the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump by a count of 276 to 262 electoral votes.

Here is how the election betting odds translate to a percentage chance to win for each candidate in each state.

Presidential Election Predictions for Every State

2024 Election Odds on Which Party Will Win

If we zoom out from the candidates and just look at the parties, the odds on who will win the White House in November effectively remain the same. Like Harris, the Democrats are -125 favorites. Like Trump, the Republicans are +110 underdogs. And the odds of an Independent or third-party candidate winning are 100-to-1, although the true chance of such an outcome is probably far, far less likely.

Odds for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote

While the winner of the 2024 popular vote doesn't really matter, it is an interesting barometer of voter sentiment, particularly from a national perspective. The Democrats are back up to -500 to win the popular vote after having dropped to -333 in the previous few weeks.

The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008. Various polls have consistently shown the Democrats leading in the popular vote, which aligns with the current odds.

Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.