2024 Presidential election odds, predictions, chances to win | Super Tuesday

2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions, Chances to Win

Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Click here to learn more about that concept, which is important in betting and using odds to evaluate the chances of something happening. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.

Headed into Super Tuesday, the 2024 presidential election odds reflect the fact that this is essentially a two-person race, with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden almost certainly on tap.

Nikki Haley's campaign is in such rough shape that she actually has far longer odds (+2500) than Michelle Obama (+800) to win the 2024 presidential election, and we can all agree that Michelle probably isn't running for president, barring some huge unforeseen circumstances.

Former president Donald Trump, on the other hand, has been the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election for almost the entire time since odds first opened in July 2022. At that time, Trump was +250 to win. The only time that Trump's chances to win the election have been worse than Biden's in the past 20 months is when he was indicted by the federal government on four criminal charges related to overturn the 2020 presidential election. That happened in August, but by the time of the second Republican presidential debate in September, Trump had become the favorite once again.

Winning Party of 2024 Election

Fifteen states are holding their nominating events, be they primaries or caucuses, on Super Tuesday on both the Republican and Democrat side. In addition, the results of Iowa's Democratic caucuses will be announced on Tuesday, although voting by mail in that caucus began earlier this year.

With that said, Trump has all but wrapped up the 2024 Republican nomination for president. In fact, as of Super Tuesday, Trump has a 99% chance to win the Republican nomination over Nikki Haley, according to the latest Republican presidential nominee odds.

2024 Republican Nominee Odds

*While Trump's odds to win the Republican nomination when you remove the vigorish are "only" 93.69%, the sportsbook's cut of the bets placed on this market is so high that his real chance to win is closer to the 99% implied by the -10000 odds.

Super Tuesday Republican Primaries, Caucuses

Primaries:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• California
• Colorado
• Maine
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• North Carolina
• Oklahoma
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Vermont
• Virginia

Caucuses:

• Alaska
• Utah

On the Democrat side, the race is still technically more competitive, although it's hard to see a scenario where current president Biden is not the nominee. With that said, Biden is only -286 in the latest Democratic presidential nominee odds.

2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

Super Tuesday Democratic Primaries, Caucuses

Primaries:

• Alabama
• Arkansas
• California
• Colorado
• Maine
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• North Carolina
• Oklahoma
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia

Caucuses:

• American Samoa

Lastly, while Kamala Harris is the presumptive vice presidential candidate for the Democrats, the race to be Donald Trump's 2024 Republican vice presidential running mate is wide open, with no potential nominee having odds of better than +350.

2024 Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Odds