The Democratic National Convention is approaching, and its significance is heightened by Kamala Harris's likely nomination as the Democratic candidate for the upcoming presidential election — and who her pick for vice president will be, too.
The choice of a running mate is crucial as the Democratic Party navigates the electoral dynamics of the 2024 presidential race. Factors such as endorsements, nomination chances and key issues like reproductive rights will play a significant role in the selection process.
With Minnesota governor Tim Walz joining a public "White Dudes for Harris" fundraising effort on Monday night, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper removing himself from consideration to be the Democratic nominee for Vice President, and potential Kamala Harris running mates Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer campaigning together on behalf of Harris, the latest odds on who will join Harris on the Democratic ticket in the 2024 presidential election tell quite the story.
When President Joe Biden first announced he would not seek reelection and would instead endorse Harris, it was Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, who opened as the betting favorite to be the 2024 Democratic vice presidential candidate at +140. He was followed by Cooper, with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly just behind them.
Vice Presidential Candidate | Odds to Be Nominee | Chance to Be Nominee |
---|---|---|
Josh Shapiro | -110 | 33.49% |
Mark Kelly | +175 | 25.58% |
Tim Walz | +400 | 12.79% |
Andy Beshear | +600 | 9.13% |
Roy Cooper | +1400 | 4.26% |
Pete Buttigieg | +1600 | 3.76% |
Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 1.88% |
Hillary Clinton | +4000 | 1.56% |
Catherine Cortez Masto | +5000 | 1.25% |
Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.25% |
Jay Robert Pritzker | +5000 | 1.25% |
Michelle Obama | +5000 | 1.25% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +10000 | 0.63% |
Amy Klobuchar | +10000 | 0.63% |
Andrew Yang | +10000 | 0.63% |
Joe Biden | +10000 | 0.63% |
Odds are according to BetMGM in the UK.Chance to be the nominee are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. These markets are not available at sportsbooks in the U.S.
Late last week, it was Kelly who had moved ahead of the pack, with his odds shifting moving from +500 to +125. There were even times this weekend where Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, who was the victim of gun violence when she served in Congress, was even money to be Harris' running mate.
Now, Shapiro has seen his odds move to even better than even money, with the Pennsylvania governor being -110 as of Tuesday morning, with Kelly having dipped to +150. Those are two lead horses at the moment, followed by Walz, the Minnesota governor known for his progressive policies, at +400 and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear at +500.
Interestingly, Cooper remains fairly high on the Kamala Harris running mate odds at +1400 despite publicly saying he's no longer pursuing the position.
As the Democratic National Convention approaches, various potential vice presidential candidates are being considered, making this a crucial decision for Harris.
Both Shapiro and Cooper are popular, relatively bipartisan leaders of crucial swing states — states that will change the tide of the November election.
Walz, the two-term governor of Minnesota, is also the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, which is actively involved in fundraising and campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial candidates.
Gretchen Whitmer, the Michigan governor, has also been mentioned, particularly for her focus on abortion rights during her reelection campaign.
A report last week indicated the Harris campaign had reached out to the camps of Cooper, Kelly, Shapiro, Walz and Whitmer to "request vetting materials."
During a combined rally with Whitmer and Shapiro on Monday, Whitmer called out the Republican nominee for vice president, JD Vance (per NBC News):
“To be clear, Kamala Harris has more experience than the Trump-Vance ticket combined,” she said, adding of Vance: “He’s really made his values clear lately. He does not see women as equals. He does not want everyone to have a seat at the table. He’s scared of us.”
Although the Michigan governor is seen by many as a strong potential vice-presidential candidate, that strength is not necessarily reflected in the latest election betting odds, where she is +3300 — behind Cooper and United States Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.
Buttigieg is also a national figure after coming out of nowhere to compete in the 2020 Democratic primary. The former Afghanistan veteran, Harvard grad and South Bend mayor has proven he can be popular in more moderate swing states.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear's influence on the election, particularly his stance on critical issues like abortion access and partisanship, is also a significant factor to consider, and one that is almost certainly playing into his odds to be the Democratic candidate for vice president at +600.
The significance of the vice presidential nominee selection cannot be overstated, as it will play a pivotal role in the upcoming election. Still, the further we move down the Democratic vice presidential candidate odds, the more amusing some of the names become.
The idea of Hillary Clinton (+4000) as a vice president doesn't really pass the smell test, as one imagines she'd be more interested in the chief executive position if she were going to put herself through another election cycle.
Michelle Obama at +5000 is another eye-catching name, and while we can't rule it out, the former First Lady has insisted she has no plans on running for office at this time.
Last but not least, you might get a chuckle at President Joe Biden being on the list at 100-to-1.
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