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August 10, 2022: Props power peachy pitching parlay

MLB will carry us throughout the whole day, as Wednesday means afternoon baseball. We have a few pitcher props that stand out based on matchups and recent trends.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Props power peachy pitching parlay

Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

MLB will carry us throughout the whole day, as Wednesday means afternoon baseball. We have a few pitcher props that stand out based on matchups and recent trends.

Brandon Woodruff under 18.5 outs (-155 DK)

This is an interesting line for Milwaukee Brewers' Brandon Woodruff against Tampa Bay for one of the early afternoon games. Woodruff has gone 6.1 innings in two straight starts, which equates to 19 outs. Besides those two recent outings, Woodruff is under this number in each of his prior 14 starts this year. That's a hit rate of just 13%, and now he gets a Rays lineup that ranks inside the top-10 at hitting RHPs. Woodruff faced off against Tampa Bay at the end of June, lasting just five innings (15 outs). In Milwaukee, where this game is being played, Woodruff has yet to pitch into the seventh inning this season in his six home starts. We're fading this number, which is available only on DraftKings.

Kris Bubic over 16.5 outs (-120 DK)

Bubic, the Kansas City lefty, has had some nice longevity in his starts lately. He has gone over this 16.5 number in five straight, including three straight at home. The Royals host the White Sox today, a team with a bottom-10 wRC+ over the past month against LHPs, suggesting some recent offensive struggles for Chicago. With Bubic limiting his walks lately and striking out more batters, we'd like to follow what appears to be a hot hand and bet on Bubic making it through the sixth inning tonight.

Strikeout prop parlay: Jeffrey Springs 5+ Ks, Kyle Wright 4+ Ks, Nick Pivetta 4+ Ks (-108 FD)

FanDuel is the only book that offers us alternate lines on strikeouts, and it's there where we load up on these three pitchers to hit these numbers today. The reasoning is quite simply built by the numbers.  A look:

  • Springs has 5+ strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 games, which includes four straight home starts. No team is striking out more against lefties in the last 30 days than Milwaukee.
  • Wright has 4+ Ks in 19 of his 21 starts this year, including seven of his eight road starts. Boston is striking out at the third-highest rate vs RHP over the past 30. Wright had 4 Ks in a May start vs. the Red Sox. 
  • Pivetta has reached 4 Ks in 20 of his 22 starts this year. No team is striking out more against RHP than Atlanta in the last month. 

Enjoy MLB today. Good luck with your bets!


In other news ...

Serena Williams announced she will retire after the U.S. Open — What a career for Serena! Williams will leave the sport of tennis as the best to ever do it. Williams' 23 Grand Slam titles top Steffi Graf's 22 for the most all-time. Williams announced that she will be retiring after this year's U.S. Open, a tournament she has won six times. Serena didn't have a very strong showing in her last tournament, but if you want to bet on a storybook ending, you can bet on Williams to go out on top with a U.S. Open win at +1600 on DraftKings.

FedEx Cup playoffs start tomorrow — While the battle of whether or not those who joined LIV Golf can play in the FedEx Cup playoffs has been brewing on the side, the action on the course is finally beginning tomorrow. The favorite to win at St. Jude this week is Rory McIlroy at +900. Our bet is on Tony Finau at +2000. Finau has won each of his last two tournaments, the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic. He also won here at St. Jude last year. That's a recipe for success we want to follow, and we love this price for the red-hot Finau.

NFL Rookie of the Year odds are up and worth a look — We've been wading through the NFL futures market for weeks now, and our latest stop was into the Rookie of the Year options. On offense, we're intrigued by the potential role that could emerge for pass-catching back James Cook in this Bills offense. The defensive side could go in a few directions, but Ahmad Gardner at +1000 is a bet we're planning to make.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers

We mentioned above that Tampa Bay hits righties well and that we're fading Brandon Woodruff accordingly. That logic certainly stretches to the game's outcome. After all, Milwaukee has really had its issues against LHPs, which the Brewers have today in Jeffrey Springs. We're betting on Tampa Bay at +135.
Wednesday, 2:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Rays
+1.5 (-164) +135 > 7 (-125)
Brewers
-1 (-105) -145 < 7 (-120)
2 New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners

The over is looking good to us in this Yankees-Mariners game this afternoon. Both teams rank near the top of hitting lefties, and with Nestor Cortes and Robbie Ray on the bump for these two AL teams, it seems to suggest the bats should come alive after last night's 1-0 extra-inning contest. Ray in particular has been getting hit lately, allowing 5+ hits in four straight starts. We're taking the over at 7 runs, and a bet on New York at -112 looks pretty good too.
Wednesday, 4:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Yankees
-1 (+110) -112 > 7 (-120)
Mariners
+1.5 (-164) +105 < 7 (-122)
3 San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

This is an over pick for us with both offenses looking primed to jump on the starters tonight (Jakob Junis, Sean Manaea). Both Junis and Manaea surrended four runs to these lineups when they last faced, and based on these teams' splits, more scoring should be expected. We're betting over 8.5 runs.
Wednesday, 4:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Giants
+1.5 (-140) +147 > 8.5 (-118)
Padres
-1 (-110) -156 < 8.5 (-120)
4 Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

It'll be Dean Kremer against Jose Berrios on the mound tonight as these two AL East teams meet once again. Both are RHPs, and both of these teams have had strong recent success against righties. Berrios is getting hit a lot lately, allowing 6+ hits in seven of his last nine starts. After winning yesterday, we're thinking host Baltimore can do it again. Orioles +135 is our pick.
Wednesday, 7:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Blue Jays
-1 (-124) -142 > 9 (+100)
Orioles
+1.5 (-125) +135 < 9 (-147)
5 St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

Colorado came out hot last night, helping us cash the over with ease. The Rockies cashed the over by themselves by the end of the third inning, en route to a 16-5 win. Here we are again, and the Colorado weather is suggesting a +15% increase in runs scored. We're going back to what worked yesterday and betting over 12 runs.
Wednesday, 8:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Cardinals
-1.5 (+100) -147 > 12 (-112)
Rockies
+1.5 (-106) +140 < 12 (-115)
6 New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings

We remarked on an interesting development occurring with this Dallas team on Monday, and the trend came through, so we're going back to it. The development we reference is how much better they have been playing with leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale out of the lineup. Without her, Dallas has beat the two top teams in the WNBA in Chicago and Las Vegas, and the Wings came from behind to beat Indiana once Ogunbowale got hurt again. The Wings beat the Liberty by nine without Ogunbowale on Monday and get New York again tonight. What changes? Not our bet. Dallas -4 is our choice.
Wednesday, 8:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Liberty
+4.5 (-115) +170 > 162.5 (-112)
Wings
-4 (-110) -185 < 162.5 (-112)

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