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September 12, 2022: Wilson gives Broncos massive edge over Seahawks

Hope your weekend was full of football and winning some bets! Ours was a bit light on the latter, there's no hiding from that. So let's turn that around with Monday Night Football and then say goodbye to NFL Week 1.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Wilson gives Broncos massive edge over Seahawks

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Hope your weekend was full of football and winning some bets! Ours was a bit light on the latter, there's no hiding from that. So let's turn that around with Monday Night Football and then say goodbye to NFL Week 1.

Broncos appear to have a massive edge tonight

The story of tonight is Russell Wilson's first game as a Bronco, and it just so happens to be against the team he spent his first 10 years with. Seattle traded Wilson to Denver this offseason, which simultaneously set these two franchises on drastically different courses. Quarterback is obviously the most important position on the field, and all of a sudden the Broncos have an elite passer to help elevate what is a solid offense throughout. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are moving forward with veteran Geno Smith this year, and while he has a strong WR duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, he's working behind one of the worst offensive lines in football.

Seattle also said goodbye to their defensive leader in linebacker Bobby Wagner, who leaves a massive hole in the middle of the field now that he's a member of the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle is switching to a 3-4 defense this season, which should accentuate their lone bright spots in defensive tackles Al Woods and Poona Ford. Their line did not generate much pressure last season, and if they can't make Wilson uncomfortable, he's going to pick them apart. The Seahawks are trotting out Tariq Woolen as one of the starting corners, making his first career appearance after being selected in the fifth round. Expect Wilson to test him early.

The Broncos are hoping that corner Pat Surtain takes a leap in his second season, and he'll likely be matched up with Metcalf. Surtain has ideal size to keep up with Metcalf, who caught four of Smith's five touchdown passes last season. The Denver defensive line has some questions to answer, but they'll get a preferred first game to succeed against the aforementioned weak Seattle offensive line. It's feeling like a successful homecoming for Wilson, who brings with him a much better team top-to-bottom.

Betting: Denver Broncos -6.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Look for Albert Okwuegbunam to find the end zone

Seattle allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends last season, and Okwuegbunam is set to be TE1 in a high-powered offense flanked by Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. While Wilson will push the ball down field to his receivers, that success will only bring about an exploitable matchup for Albert O. You can bet him to score at +265 on Caesars.


In the news ...

Dak Prescott out 6-8 weeks — There's plenty to take away from Week 1: we had upsets, ties and everything in between. One of the more tangible impacts on the betting market from Sunday was that Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has an injury to his thumb that will require surgery. Expected to be out two months, Dallas is now +340 to win the NFC East following the news and a loss yesterday to the Bucs. The remaining three NFC East teams all won their first games. Philadelphia is -140 to win the division, Washington is +550, and New York is +600.

Weekend of upsets in College Football — What a weekend in College Football, if you missed it we have you covered here. Numerous Top-25 teams fell, headlined by No. 6 Texas A&M losing to Appalachian State and No. 8 Notre Dame falling to Marshall. Alabama just squeaked by Texas on a last-second field goal, which would have sent Austin into a frenzy. The Crimson Tide are still the favorite to win it all at +200, but there's some value in Georgia at +210 and Ohio State and +290, two teams who have shown nothing but consistency to start the year.

Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek wins U.S. Open singles titles — As the field narrowed in New York, the two favorites eventually outlasted the rest. Carlos Alcaraz became the youngest U.S. Open winner ever in Men's singles, taking down Casper Ruud in four sets. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, the favorite from start to finish, won her first U.S. Open title over Ons Jabeur on Saturday.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll


Quick Picks

1 Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

While it doesn't appear that the Russell Wilson-Seattle Seahawks marriage ended in drama, it's still safe to assume that Russ wants to beat his former team. More than that narrative, it's just the right matchup for a team of the Broncos' caliber, who should be able to take care of business in the trenches and make plays through the air. Broncos by a touchdown to cover the 6.5-point spread.
Monday, 8:15 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Broncos
-6 (-115) -270 > 43.5 (-110)
Seahawks
+6.5 (-105) +250 < 43.5 (-107)
2 Courtland Sutton over 22.5 longest reception

Wilson proved in Seattle that he loves to air it out, consistently supporting long catches from both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Courtland Sutton is the vertical threat on this offense and primed for a big season, which starts tonight with a long catch.

Latest Odds:  -114
3 Framber Valdez over 6.5 Ks

Houston pitcher Framber Valdez has been rolling on the mound, piling up 27 Ks in his past three starts. He's over this 6.5 total in six of his last eight games and had seven strikeouts when he last faced Detroit. 

Latest Odds:  -105
4 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

Potential fireworks could be coming in Cincinnati today, as the weather is suggesting a 13% boost to home runs. Aiding the cause are two pitchers in Bryse Wilson and Mike Minor, who have been generous to the long bomb this season. We're going with over 9 runs here.
Monday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Pirates
+1.5 (-160) +125 > 9 (-114)
Reds
-1 (+105) -135 < 9 (-132)
5 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Listen, Ryne Nelson had himself a great debut last week, tossing seven innings of no-hit ball against San Diego, but he's still very fresh in the league. The Dodgers hit righties better than anyone, and we expect them to jump on Nelson tonight. While the Diamondbacks have gotten their hits off against Tyler Anderson, they remain one of the worst hitting teams against LHPs. We're taking Los Angeles at -1.5.
Monday, 9:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Dodgers
-1.5 (-130) -208 > 8.5 (-118)
Diamondbacks
+2.5 (-130) +190 < 8.5 (-115)
6 Spencer Strider over 7.5 Ks

Spencer Strider has had a magnificent rookie season in Atlanta and has immediately slotted into the league as a dominant strikeout pitcher. Strider's Ks/inning are in the 99th percentile, and his swinging strike rate is in the 95th percentile. He gets himself an ideal matchup to keep it rolling tonight in the San Francisco Giants. No team is striking out at a higher rate against RHPs than the Giants, and they haven't been hitting well against righties either. Strider should make it six-to-seven innings and reach this K total tonight. He has 9+ strikeouts in three of his past four starts.

Latest Odds:  +100

Betting News & Notes

King of Props: Riding with Russ

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DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5, Win $200 on Seahawks v Broncos in Monday Night Football

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College football Week 2: What we learned to help us win more bets

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds prediction, pick and odds Mon. 9/12: Mike Minor seeks another win

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Two Monday Night Football player props

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FanDuel Promo Code: Win $150 Guaranteed on Seahawks v Broncos Monday Night Football

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, pick and odds Mon. 9/12: LA closing in on division title

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AFC North Odds: Ravens up, Bengals down after Week 1

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