Yardbarker

The Bark Bets Newsletter

June 09, 2023: NBA Finals Game 4: We're in a hurry to bet on Murray

We end our week on the hardwood, as the Nuggets and Heat meet in Miami with Denver holding a 2-1 series lead. To us, the Nuggets look like the far superior team.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
Subscribe  |  Read in Browser

NBA Finals Game 4: We're in a hurry to bet on Murray

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

We end our week on the hardwood, as the Nuggets and Heat meet in Miami with Denver holding a 2-1 series lead. To us, the Nuggets look like the far superior team. While the Heat did step up after Game 1's loss, they have looked outmatched and have now dropped three straight at home. We lean toward Denver winning, which makes our choice simple for the prop market.

Jamal Murray has been pivotal in Denver wins

When the Nuggets have won lately, it's very likely that a big Jamal Murray game accompanied that result. Over the past six Denver victories, Murray is averaging 31.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game.

The guard is burying contested looks, finding easy shots and facilitating for his teammates, and we'd like that to continue here tonight. In this series, Murray has surpassed his points and rebound prop twice, and his assists prop in all three meetings.

The dimes are what really catch the eye. Murray has dished out 10 in all three NBA Finals games to go along with a clean 26 points per game average. The Heat have seemed unable to slow down Murray, something that Derrick White was able to take advantage of to a lesser degree last series.

White surpassed his Pts + Reb + Ast (PRA) prop in each of the final three games against the Heat, and it's there we like looking to Murray tonight.

Murray's PRA line is set at 39.5, a number he's hit in five of his last seven, 61% throughout this postseason, and in five of the last six Denver wins. Fresh off a 54-PRA outing, we're rolling with an encore performance from the secondary star on this Nuggets squad.

Betting: Jamal Murray over 39.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-102 FanDuel)


In the news ...

Florida wins in OT to cut series deficit to a game — On the brink of going down 0-3, Matthew Tkachuk buried a tying goal with just 2:13 left, forcing overtime where Carter Verhaeghe would bury the game-winner shortly thereafter. Suddenly, we have ourselves a series in this Stanley Cup Final. Game 4 will be tomorrow in Florida, with the Panthers as slight favorites at -125. Vegas is -260 to win the series, and the Conn Smythe seems to be between Jonathan Marchessault (-110) if the Golden Knights win and Tkachuk (+350).

Belmont Stakes this weekend — The third jewel of the Triple Crown will be run on Saturday at Belmont Park, with a field of nine competing. Forte is the favorite at 5-2. You may remember Forte, he was the Kentucky Derby favorite before a bruised hoof forced him to be scratched. He seems likely to take it home as well. He's on a five-race win streak. A deserved favorite, ride with Forte on Saturday.

Vikings cut Dalvin Cook — After six seasons in Minnesota, four-time Pro Bowl RB Dalvin Cook has been released. At 27, Cook was a cap casualty, and while the market may not be plentiful for a 27-year-old running back, he's sure to have plenty of suitors for his services. The early odds suggest Cook is likely to hit the AFC East. The Dolphins are the favorite to land the playmaker at +100, followed by the Jets (+250) and Bills (+550).


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat

Denver continues to look like the better team to us, and while this Heat run has been magical, we're bought into the Nuggets bringing home a title. They get some breathing room tonight with a comfortable win, the Heat have dropped three straight at home. Give us Denver -3.5.
Friday, 8:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Nuggets
-3.5 (-105) -160 > 210.5 (-110)
Heat
+4 (-114) +140 < 210.5 (-110)
2 Caleb Martin over 9.5 points 

Caleb Martin scratched his way to 10 points in Game 3 after failing to do much of anything in Games 1 or 2, which feels like a step in the right direction. The volume rose, and if we can find the version of Martin that terrorized the Celtics, this line is a discount. Martin has 10+ points in seven of his last nine at home.

Latest Odds:  -110 
3 New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

We're liking runs in this one. Neither pitcher Tylor Megill nor Rich Hill have been very impressive this year, the foundation for such a read. Four straight Mets games have hit today's line, and three straight for the Pirates. Over 9 runs is our play here.
Friday, 7:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mets
+1.5 (-200) +100 > 9.5 (+100)
Pirates
+1.5 (-179) -110 < 9.5 (-115)
4 Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

The Yankees have had the Red Sox's number of late, winning six straight meetings. We'll give the decisive edge on the mound to New York's Gerrit Cole, who is 7-0 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. We'll take the Yankees moneyline at -150.
Friday, 7:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Red Sox
+1.5 (-154) +135 > 7.5 (-138)
Yankees
-1 (-105) -150 < 7.5 (-106)
5 Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts 

Arizona's Merrill Kelly has gone over 5.5 Ks in five of his last six games, averaging 7.83/game in that stretch. Today he gets a Tigers team seriously struggling against right-handed pitching. On the year, Detroit has fanned at the sixth-highest rate against RHP, and just this week, four straight starting righties have piled up 8+ strikeouts against the Tigers. Seven straight have gotten to at least six, which is all we need tonight.

Latest Odds:  -145
6 Saturday: Vegas Golden Knights @ Florida Panthers 

On death's doorstep, Florida tied it late and won in overtime, and suddenly we have a series on our hands. The energy in Florida was undeniable, but the sloppiness from this Panthers squad continues to be an issue. A gentlemen's sweep seems imminent and that will start with a Vegas win tomorrow. We're rolling with Golden Knights +105.

Latest Odds:  +105

Betting News & Notes

NBA Finals best bets: Two player props for Game 4 of Nuggets-Heat

Read More

How to Bet on Heat vs Nuggets in Game 4 of the NBA Finals

Read More

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees prediction, pick for 6/9

Read More

Belmont best bets: How to approach betting the Belmont Stakes

Read More

NFL rookie head-to-head bets: More sacks between Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson

Read More

DraftKings Sportsbook NBA: Bet $5, Win $200 on Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4

Read More

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, pick for 6/9

Read More

NASCAR best bets: Toyota/Save Mart 350 preview, best bets, longshot pick

Read More
For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
Sports News, Rumors & Quizzes

TERMS OF SERVICE    PRIVACY POLICY    CONTACT US    MY ACCOUNT    SUBSCRIBE    ADVERTISE    JOBS

     

To ensure delivery of these emails, please add news@yardbarker.com to your address book.
If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can safely unsubscribe here.

Copyright 2024 YB Media, LLC.
1534 Plaza Lane, #146, Burlingame, CA 94010.
All Rights Reserved