We have another closeout game on our hands tonight, with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final. Vegas has a chance to put away Florida, and based on how they did at home to begin this series, it feels likely that the Golden Knights clinch the Cup tonight. The last time the Panthers were down 3-1, it was to the Bruins. Florida won that Game 5 in Boston 4-3 in overtime before of course going on to win the series, so perhaps the Panthers stand a chance after all.
Our bets tonight are very focused on shots on goal props. It feels like the one constant we can project. Elimination games such as these tend to see an uptick in shots, and there is some nice value on the table on both ends.
Take a shot on some shots
So often when betting NHL props, it's best to trust a player to bounce back off a down game, particularly if you liked what you saw leading up to the dud. We have two such players on our hands who deserve some trust to make something happen tonight.
Sam Bennett over 3.5 SOG (+115 DraftKings)
Sam Bennett went under in Game 4, but the volume very much remains worthy of our backing. Bennett has tallied 30 shot attempts this series, the most for Florida. He has gone over 3.5 SOG in three of his last four on the road, and with linemate Matthew Tkachuk hobbled, the burden of offensive production likely falls heavier on Bennett's shoulders this evening.
Mark Stone over 2.5 SOG (+100 DraftKings)
Mark Stone finished Game 4 with zero shots, but prior to that, he finished with SOG totals of seven, three and three this series. He's over in three straight games at home, and in the two closeout opportunities last round against Dallas, Stone finished with three SOG both times. He seems likely to get more involved tonight in that situation again.
Dinger Tuesday trends
We'd hate to not celebrate Dinger Tuesday in some capacity. Be sure to opt in to the FanDuel promotion before placing any of your HR bets! The Toronto-Baltimore and Washington-Houston games are looking like our best options thanks to the weather forecast, and the starters also seem homer-prone, which should aid a few batters.
Toronto-Baltimore HR picks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350 FD)
In 21 plate appearances against Dean Kremer, Guerrero has knocked four homers.
Gunnar Henderson (+425 FD)
Three HRs in his last four games.
Washington-Houston HR pick
Chas McCormick (+500 FD)
Three HRs in his last 10 games. One homer in three at-bats against Patrick Corbin.
In the news ...
Nuggets win first NBA title in franchise history — Thanks to a strong defensive showing that limited Miami to just 89 points, the Denver Nuggets took Game 5 94-89 and won their first NBA title in franchise history. Denver was +1800 before the season to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy and is the current favorite for next season at +475. Nikola Jokic took home Finals MVP honors, averaging 30.2 points, 14.0 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game.
U.S. Open tees off Thursday — All eyes turn to the golf world in the wake of the PGA-LIV merger. The third major of the year gets going on Thursday at the Los Angeles Country Club, and it's time to get some prep in. There unfortunately is no course history to call upon here, so you may prefer to make your picks based on momentum or how you feel the weekend goes. This isn't too scientific, but we can't help but feel that a massive weight has been lifted off Phil Mickelson's shoulders with this merger, and we may see a more loose and confident "Lefty" this weekend. We sprinkled on Phil at +1000 to finish inside the top 10. We'll save our winner picks for tomorrow's Bark Bets. Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are the two favorites. Scheffler has yet to pick up a major this season. It may be his time.
Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll