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June 29, 2023: These K props are A-OK

We've been focusing on the bats a lot around here. Let's turn our attention back to the rubber and see if we can't find a bit of player prop success on the diamond tonight.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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These K props are A-OK

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

We've been focusing on the bats a lot around here. Let's turn our attention back to the rubber and see if we can't find a bit of player prop success on the diamond tonight.

K, these plays look good

Betting: Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 BetMGM)

This game starts at 2:10 p.m. ET, so if you like the read don't postpone locking in the play!

Bieber and the Guardians are squaring off against the Royals this afternoon, and it makes the Cleveland righty an intriguing option to back. Bieber has picked up his strikeout tally big time over the last few games, piling up 22 total across his last three starts.

Kansas City is fanning at the fifth-highest rate against RHP, and Bieber should be able to secure at least six innings today seeing as no team hits righties worse than the Royals. Six of the last seven starting right-handed pitchers have gone over their K prop total against Kansas City, with five of them reaching at least six.

That's the number we need today, and the last time Bieber pitched in KC he finished with seven strikeouts.

Betting: Max Scherzer over 7.5 strikeouts (-105 BetMGM)
 
Max Scherzer of the New York Mets has gotten his K game going, fanning 8+ batters in five of his last six starts. An important metric to identify the quality of one's strikeouts is his swinging-strike rate, which helps to show how often he's beating the batter vs. the batter beating himself.

Scherzer ranks in the 85th percentile for swinging-strike rate, and we like him to have another solid outing tonight.

The Brewers are striking out at the fourth-highest clip against RHP, and 11 of the past 14 starting righties have covered the over on their K prop. Load up Scherzer for another solid day.


In the news ...

Domingo German throws 24th perfect game in MLB history — For just the 24th time in MLB history, and the first time since 2012, a perfect game was thrown. The honor was accomplished by Yankees pitcher Domingo German Wednesday night against Oakland. Baseball is a funny sport. German's previous two starts saw him allow 17 runs in just 5.1 IP. He then comes back and tosses a perfect game — go figure.

Isaiah Rodgers and other NFL players expected to receive season-long suspensions for gambling — It is expected that Colts starting cornerback Isaiah Rodgers will be receiving a season-long suspension for betting on NFL games, along with a few other players to be named. This punishment is consistent with past offenses from multiple Lions players and Calvin Ridley last year. The NFL says they're working on better educating their players on the do's and don'ts of when and if to bet, but it's a tricky situation for a league that has partnered with three sportsbooks.
 
Devils extend Timo Meier a day after trading for Tyler Toffoli — The New Jersey Devils' Stanley Cup window is open. After trading for Tyler Toffoli on Tuesday, the team extended mid-season pickup Timo Meier, signing him to an eight-year, $70.4M contract. The Devils made a surprise run to the second round this year and have now locked down a core of forwards all 26 years or younger. New Jersey is +1000 to win next year's Stanley Cup Final, tied for the third-best odds in the league.


 Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

It's that time of the week to fade Zack Greinke again. The Royals starter is 1-8 on the year with a 5.31 ERA, and he's allowed 17 hits and 11 runs in his past two starts. That's enough for us. We're going with Cleveland's moneyline at -155.
Thursday, 2:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Guardians
-1 (-117) -145 > 8.5 (-133)
Royals
+1.5 (-130) +135 < 8.5 (-114)
2 Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are looking to win this four-game series against the White Sox, and we think they do just that. Lance Lynn has not been too threatening on the mound this year, bringing a 6.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP to tonight's game. The Angels are a top-five hitting team against RHP, and we expect them to jump on Lynn early and often. Los Angeles moneyline at -125 is the play for us.
Thursday, 4:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
White Sox
+1.5 (-165) +120 > 9 (-115)
Angels
-1 (+106) -130 < 9 (-120)
3 Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases 

Ohtani is rolling, what else do we really need to say? He's gone for 4+ total bases in five of his last six games, and we're only asking for two tonight. He's over this 1.5 mark in 21 of his 27 games, and he hits righties better. The cherry on top is his history against Lance Lynn, hitting .476 against the White Sox pitcher in 21 plate appearances.

Latest Odds:  -105
4 Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

We're liking the bats to come alive tonight in Chicago. Kyle Hendricks has been solid for the Cubs, but so have the Phillies at the plate. Taijuan Walker has been known to let up some hits, and after seeing 13 combined runs last night, we're thinking another high-scoring affair is in order. Grab over 9.5 here. 
Thursday, 8:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Phillies
-1 (+106) -115 > 9.5 (-110)
Cubs
+1.5 (-155) +105 < 9.5 (-110)
5 Tommy Pham over 1.5 total bases

Tommy Pham of the Mets has had a real solid week, accounting for 2+ total bases in three of his last four, including six last night against Milwaukee. He'll look to build on that momentum, and seeing as he's hitting .444 against Adrian Houser in 13 plate appearances, we like his chances.

Latest Odds:  +140
6 Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury

We've got two of the worst defenses in the WNBA squaring off, but the difference is on the other end, where the Fever rank as the third-most efficient offense in the league, and the Mercury are at the bottom of that metric too. We're backing Indiana at -3.5.
Thursday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Fever
-2.5 (-105) -139 > 161.5 (-108)
Mercury
+2.5 (-110) +125 < 161.5 (-116)

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