Yardbarker

The Bark Bets Newsletter

August 10, 2023: Betting on NFL preseason? It's a smart move, with the right strategy

With so few MLB games on the schedule, we're seeing something in preseason NFL. The least we can do is share what's on our mind.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
Subscribe  |  Read in Browser

Betting on NFL preseason? It's a smart move, with the right strategy

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

We didn't quite think we'd be here, touting a potential edge in a preseason game, but alas, desperate times call for desperate measures. With so few MLB games on the schedule, we're seeing something. The least we could do is share with you what's on our minds.

Houston Texans -3.5 (-108 DK)

If we're going to bet on some preseason NFL, backup QBs are the first stop to look. The logic there is relatively sound: these are the guys expected to play the bulk of the game. While the quality of the offensive line and wide receivers will affect the play of these quarterbacks, we still lean on true NFL experience when possible if we're going to place a wager on a preseason spread.

Houston checks these boxes demonstratively. They selected CJ Stroud with the second overall pick, and the rookie passer is expected to get a few series tonight with the starters. After Stroud, Houston actually has perhaps an enviable QB room, with Davis Mills and Case Keenum behind their rookie investment. Mills has started for the past two seasons, and Keenum has been in the NFL since 2013.

The Patriots have Bailey Zappe behind Mac Jones, who played well in relief last year, but then it drops down to Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham, who we're less confident in.

Bill Belichick went 1-2 last year in the preseason, while DeMeco Ryans has been a part of Kyle Shanahan's staff that has gone 7-3 over the past three preseasons. 

Give us Houston here to cover the spread, with a fourth-quarter drive by Keenum securing us the win.


In the news ...

Michael Lorenzen tosses no-hitter in second start with Phillies — It's looking like a hell of a pickup for Philadelphia, who added Michael Lorenzen to their rotation before the trade deadline. Lorenzen threw a gem in his first start and followed it up with a no-hitter on Wednesday night against the Nationals. The Phillies currently own the top wild-card spot in the National League, 3.5 games up. They got hot last year shortly after this time, can they do it again? Philadelphia is +750 to win the NL pennant.

PGA Tour merger with PIF may not happen after all — PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan declared himself a hypocrite a few months back with the announced merger with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, but it seems that partnership is far from certain. Multiple PGA Tour players, including Rickie Fowler, have expressed doubt that the deal comes together, citing the need for more buy-in and moving parts that are making the deal more complicated. We'll have to wait and see what happens here.

Meanwhile, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs begin today with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +600, but we're liking the value on Collin Morikawa at +2500. This course tends to favor the most accurate golfers, and Morikawa is second in strokes gained on his approaches and fourth in driving accuracy.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Backup quarterbacks are where our eyes tend to go when determining the value in an NFL preseason game, and both of these teams have some rough second- and third-string situations. For two teams with playoff aspirations, we also have to imagine many key contributors and key depth pieces don't see much of the field. As such, under 34.5 points is the logical place to land.
Thursday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Vikings
+3.5 (-110) +160 > 34.5 (-120)
Seahawks
-3.5 (-110) -175 < 34.5 (-107)
2 Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

That Philly weather has been kind to homers this week, and that very much so remains today. Current forecasts have this game slotted for a 34% boost to homers. With two so-so arms on the mound this evening, let's run with the over, set at nine runs.
Thursday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Nationals
+1.5 (+105) +210 > 9 (-110)
Phillies
-1.5 (-118) -235 < 9 (-137)
3 Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

James Paxton had a rough outing the last time he toed the rubber for Boston, but a date with the Royals is a good way to right the ship. Paxton has never yielded more than two runs to a Kansas City team in seven starts against the team. Load up on Boston -1.5 at -121. The Red Sox really need to turn things around.
Thursday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Royals
+1.5 (+110) +210 > 10.5 (-108)
Red Sox
-1.5 (-120) -235 < 10.5 (-110)
4 Ty Blach over 5.5 hits allowed

Colorado's Blach threw for 80+ pitches in his last outing, his longest appearance of the year. The extended work yielded eight total hits, and now he'll face a Dodgers team that whacks lefties (sixth-best wRC+, ninth-best OBP). Sounds to us like a recipe for plenty of hits. Grab the over here.

Latest Odds:  -155
5 Nolan Gorman 1+ hit

St. Louis' Gorman is cruising along at the moment, piling up seven hits across his last five games. We're definitely okay loading up some Cardinals bats against the unproven Tampa starter in Zack Littell, so why not Gorman? His odds based on recent production don't quite match, so while you may need to parlay this with another look, it's seeming like some nice value today.

Latest Odds:  -185
6 Atlanta Dream @ Seattle Storm

While the Storm are trending up a bit in advanced metrics, they're still losing games. Atlanta's offense has drastically slowed down, but its defense is powering a solid year, and the Storm should be able to keep Seattle at bay. Atlanta beat the Storm by 10 when they last met. Grab the Dream at -5.5.
Thursday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Dream
-5.5 (-110) -220 > 164.5 (-105)
Storm
+5.5 (-108) +190 < 164.5 (-110)

Betting News & Notes

MLB best bets, strikeout props for Thursday 8/10: Ty-ing one on with Blach

Read More

DraftKings Promo Code NFL: Bet $5, Win $150 on Patriots vs Texans, Seahawks vs Vikings

Read More

NFL futures: The case for Haason Reddick winning Defensive Player of the Year

Read More

NCAAF Top 25 futures: Penn State offers viable alternative to OSU/Michigan dominance

Read More

EPL best bets: Finding smart wagers for Premier League's opening weekend

Read More

CFL best bets: Lawler continues to be a baller

Read More

Golf best bets: Four top props for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Read More

How to Bet on the NFL Preseason With DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM

Read More
For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
Sports News, Rumors & Quizzes

TERMS OF SERVICE    PRIVACY POLICY    CONTACT US    MY ACCOUNT    SUBSCRIBE    ADVERTISE    JOBS

     

To ensure delivery of these emails, please add news@yardbarker.com to your address book.
If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can safely unsubscribe here.

Copyright 2025 YB Media, LLC.
1534 Plaza Lane, #146, Burlingame, CA 94010.
All Rights Reserved