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August 22, 2023: MLB best bets: With Mets' Alonso, that ball is gonzo

Well, no dice for us on Monday's preseason game. We'll revisit the NFL at the tail end of this week. It's Tuesday, and we've been hitting our fair share of homer bets here to celebrate FanDuel's promotional day.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB best bets: With Mets' Alonso, that ball is gonzo

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates with second baseman Jeff McNeil (1) after hitting a homer. Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Well, no dice for us on Monday's preseason game. We'll revisit the NFL at the tail end of this week. It's Tuesday, and we've been hitting our fair share of homer bets here to celebrate FanDuel's promotional day. Seems best if we keep that rolling today.

Mets-Braves

This New York-Atlanta game feels ripe for some HRs and fits nicely into the criteria needed to fully maximize the Dinger Tuesday promotion. The Braves hit more homers than anyone else in the league, and the Mets rank 10th. The Atlanta heat and wind are aiding a 14% boost to HRs, making this game all the better to target.

Pete Alonso (+425 PointsBet best price, +350 FD for promotion)

Pete Alonso is rolling right now for the Mets, knocking four homers in his past six games. At its core sometimes simplicity is best when looking to bet a HR prop, and we'll gladly hop on the Alonso train here.

The Mets slugger has seen Braves' starter Bryce Elder four times, and he's blasted a HR in that small sample size. That's extremely encouraging and enough for us to make Alonso our choice in this one.

Mariners-White Sox

The Chicago weather is leading the way in projected home run increase at 19%, and we'd like to follow the Seattle end here considering their second in baseball in HRs per game over the past three (2.67).

As one might guess based on the Mariners' recent numbers, there are a handful of batters that have been hitting HRs of late. 

Cal Raleigh (+290 FD)

Cal Raleigh strolled into Guaranteed Rate Field yesterday and knocked two homers, of course we're going back to him tonight. That's now two straight visits to the White Sox in which Raleigh has recorded a HR, and he's hit four homers in his past six games.

To top it off, Raleigh hits righties for power far better (.245 ISO vs. .147 ISO), and 20 of his 24 HRs this season have been against RHP. That's who he'll see to begin tonight with Mike Clevinger, so give us more Raleigh bombs tonight in Chicago.


In the news ...

College Football starts this weekend — We are nearly there! Meaningful football will be played this weekend, and every weekend until the Super Bowl. It's one of the most beautiful times of the year, and we've got you covered with plenty of coverage for the season to come. We've got Heisman futures and thoughts on candidates like Caleb Williams at +550 to repeat. We're going team-by-team as well on the site, like our dive into Michigan's outlook and how this may be one of the best teams they've had in years. We'll touch on more later this week in Bark Bets, but get a head start with our offering directly on Yardbarker.

United States goes 5-0 on showcase games in advance of FIBA World Cup starting this week — The U.S. men's basketball team finished in seventh in the 2019 FIBA World Cup, and there are expectations for a win as the 2023 tournament gets ready to begin. The U.S. team wrapped up their showcase schedule with a win on Monday, going a clean 5-0 before official play begins. The team is headlined by Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Brandon Ingram and Tyrese Haliburton. The U.S. are -125 to win it all, followed by Canada (+900) and France (+900). Slovenia has the top player in the tournament in Luka Doncic, and the NBA star's home country is +1600 to win the tournament.

Colts grant Jonathan Taylor permission to seek trade — The impasse between the Colts and their star running back is growing wider, as the team has given Jonathan Taylor permission to find a trade partner. The irony here is that Indianapolis is refusing to give Taylor a contract he feels he deserves, yet is asking for a first-round pick in return for his services. It's hard to see a team shelling out that type of compensation, but a Super Bowl contender in need of a running back might jump as the season gets underway. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees

The Yankees are in the midst of one of the worst slides the franchise has seen in decades. New York has dropped eight straight games and has fallen 9.5 games back of the wild card because of it. Today they're trotting out Carlos Rodon and his 7.33 ERA. We're taking the Nationals' moneyline at +160.
Tuesday, 7:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Nationals
+1.5 (-125) +158 > 8 (-120)
Yankees
-1 (-132) -180 < 8 (-110)
2 Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

Blake Snell is a pitcher we'd like to bet on. He hasn't allowed more than four hits in a start for San Diego in five straight games, and he's got the decided edge over Jesus Luzardo tonight. The Padres are hitting lefties at the fifth-best rate this season, back San Diego to win at -178 this evening.
Tuesday, 9:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Marlins
+1.5 (-135) +160 > 7.5 (-105)
Padres
-1 (-132) -178 < 7.5 (-107)
3 Ty Blach under 2.5 Ks 

If you want a sweaty bet, look no further than fading Colorado's Ty Blach and his strikeout line. It's set at just 2.5, and he's facing a Tampa Bay team that tends to force lefties out of the game early. Blach has started going for 80+ pitches, yet he is one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. He's never struck out more than two batters in a game, and his Ks/inning mark is the worst in MLB. Fade him here and hope for an early exit.

Latest Odds:  +125
4 Noah Syndergaard over 5.5 hits allowed 

Cleveland's Syndergaard has allowed 6+ hits in six of his last seven games, often seeing teams record at least seven hits. Today he's facing the Dodgers, a team that hits righties fourth-best in the league and get on base at the second-highest rate. It figures to be a rough go for Syndergaard here.

Latest Odds:  -170
5 Jake Burger 1+ hit 

Miami's Jake Burger is rolling, currently riding a 12-game hitting streak. Burger has recorded 2+ hits six times in this stretch, including last night against San Diego. At this price, it seems best to hop on the Burger train until something changes. For good measure, his splits against lefties are better, and that's who he faces tonight to start.

Latest Odds:  -130
6 Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics

When looking at both advanced and traditional metrics, Connecticut reigns supreme over Washington, and the Sun have taken down the Mystics in all three tries this season. Connecticut has covered this spread in all three meetings this season, let's go for 4-4. Grab the Sun at -4.5 today.
Tuesday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Sun
-3.5 (-115) -179 > 159.5 (-105)
Mystics
+5 (-114) +170 < 159.5 (-110)

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