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November 20, 2023: 'MNF' bets: Everything points to a Super rematch

It doesn't seem to be hyperbole to say this is the most anticipated NFL game of the season, and we can only hope this Monday night clash lives up to the billing.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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'MNF' bets: Everything points to a Super rematch

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1). Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn't seem to be hyperbole to say this is the most anticipated NFL game of the season, and we can only hope this Monday night clash lives up to the billing. We've got a Super Bowl LVII rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. 

On one end, the 8-1 Eagles are first in the NFC. On the other, the 7-2 Chiefs are first in the AFC. We've got two MVP favorites in Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, and both teams are rested off their bye and ready for the home stretch. Could we ask for anything better? We suppose a winning wager could help the cause.

We've got revenge on the mind

We do often try to bring forth numbers, trends and defensive weaknesses to this intro to help guide your decisions and thoughtfully explain why we're backing a certain angle.

In this case, we'd like to throw out the more traditional and advanced metrics and simply look at this game for what it is: A chance at revenge.

Philadelphia went into the half up 10 in February, and they lost to Kansas City 38-35. There was plenty of drama surrounding that one, from the questionable grass that mitigated the Philly pass rush to a bad punt from the Eagles setting up the Chiefs at the six and a ticky-tack James Bradberry penalty to put the game on ice.

Listen, Kansas City won that game and was the better team. We list all that to simply suggest that maybe, just maybe, a win tonight means more to the Eagles than it does to the Chiefs. You have to imagine this team is still upset about what happened in Arizona, and we like them to come out fired up because of it.

Expect Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat to rack up sacks to make up for their silent Super Bowl performance, and bet on the Eagles to keep this one close in Kansas City.

Betting: Philadelphia +3


In the news ...

NFL Week 11 sees Houston, Cleveland take power position in AFC Wild Card, plus a few teams get much needed wins — The Houston Texans won again, and at 6-4, they're sitting pretty at sixth in the AFC standings with seven games remaining. C.J. Stroud continued to pile up the passing yards in the win over Arizona and is a shoo-in to win Rookie of the Year. Cleveland likely had the win of the day, holding on for a 13-10 win over Pittsburgh to move to 7-3. Myles Garrett piled up multiple sacks and tackles for loss for the Browns, and Garrett now sits at +120 to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Buffalo had to beat the Jets on Sunday and beat them they did, winning 32-6. The Bills are now 6-5 and a half-game back of the Texans and Steelers for the final wild-card spot. Buffalo is +160 to make the playoffs, and with some of the quarterbacks for these teams above them (Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Kenny Pickett in particular), are we really ready to fade the Bills down the home stretch? Some of the week's biggest losers include the Chicago Bears blowing a game to Detroit, Brandon Staley and the Chargers coming up short and dropping a crucial game, and the Washington Commanders for losing to a Tommy DeVito-led Giants team.

Phillies sign Aaron Nola to seven-year extension — The Philadelphia Phillies were able to retain one of their most important pieces, re-signing starting pitcher Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172M deal. The RHP has been with the Phillies for his entire career and has been a stable force for Philly's postseason rotation. Philadelphia has come up short two years in a row and is currently +1100 to win next year's World Series.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

Our heart tells us to bet the over because we've got two great QBs going at it and they combined for so many points in the Super Bowl this past season. How often does this happen on a prime-time game just for both defenses to step up and keep it tight? We're fading our own hopes in this one and taking under 45 points.
Monday, 8:15 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Eagles
+3 (-120) +125 > 45 (-110)
Chiefs
-2.5 (-115) -138 < 45 (-110)
2 Rashee Rice over 43.5 receiving yards

Based on volume, Rashee Rice is the Chiefs wide receiver to know in this one. He leads the group in targets and has gone for 56+ yards in three of his last four games. Every single week a WR is having themselves a big game against Philly and it's hard to see that suddenly changing. Take Rice's over.

Latest Odds:  -125
3 Patrick Mahomes over 38.5 pass attempts

The Chiefs throw the ball at the sixth-highest percentage per game this season, while no team gets thrown on more than Philadelphia. Over 71% of the opposition plays against the Eagles this season have been passes, which suggests plenty of volume for this KC passing attack. Load up Mahomes's attempts because of it. He's over in three of his last five games, and seven of nine QBs to face Philly have hit their attempts over.

Latest Odds:  -110
4 Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards

Both the Bucks and Wizards rank inside the top 10 fastest teams this season, and last time they met they accounted for 268 points. Could it be as simple as that? It sure seems like it here; we'll take the over at 244.5 points.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Bucks
-9.5 (-110) -420 > 244.5 (-115)
Wizards
+9.5 (-106) +360 < 244.5 (-109)
5 Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets

The Celtics are rolling, winners of six straight games and leading the Eastern Conference at 11-2. The Hornets are struggling, dropping four straight and sitting at 3-9 on the young year. Boston has taken six straight meetings against Charlotte, with five straight by double digits. We'll gladly back the Cs at -8.5 here.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Celtics
-8.5 (-115) -395 > 232.5 (-110)
Hornets
+9.5 (-112) +370 < 232.5 (-108)
6 San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks

This one is clear as day. Vancouver is one of the top scoring teams in the league, averaging 4.0 goals/game at home and allowing only 2.1 goals/game. San Jose is the complete inverse, allowing 4.1 goals/game on the road and scoring just 0.6 goals per contest when the visitor. The Canucks beat the Sharks 10-1 earlier this season and have won 10 straight against San Jose, often by massive margins. Grab Vancouver -1.5.
Monday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Sharks
+2.5 (-135) +300 > 6.5 (-103)
Canucks
-1.5 (-146) -360 < 6.5 (-110)

Betting News & Notes

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