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December 12, 2023: NBA best bets: James Harden will prop up your Tuesday

It's always good to start the week with a winner, and that's what we did with our simple +120 SGP+ across yesterday's two games. We'll look to continue stacking green slips with some prop plays across the NBA and NHL tonight.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NBA best bets: James Harden will prop up your Tuesday 

Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden (1). Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

It's always good to start the week with a winner, and that's what we did with our simple +120 SGP+ across yesterday's two games. If only Jaylen Waddle found the end zone, we would have cashed that TD parlay too. We're not crying.

We'll look to continue stacking green slips with some prop plays across the NBA and NHL tonight.

Let the threes fly: James Harden over 2.5 threes made (+120 DK) 

James Harden and the Clippers are squaring off against the Sacramento Kings tonight, in a game that should see plenty of scoring. The Kings are allowing the ninth-most points per game and the fifth-highest 3PT %, which should lend itself to some made threes.

James Harden is our preferred choice on the Los Angeles end. Harden is averaging 6.67 three-point attempts/game over the past six games. As long as he can continue finding that volume, the threes follow more often than not.

Over the past two seasons, Harden is over this line at a 60% rate when he chucks up 6+ threes, which includes two games against the Kings in which the SG finished with four and five made threes. Grab this one at plus-money.

Connor McDavid a bet worth backing vs. Blackhawks

McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers are picking up steam, and that success should continue against the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago has allowed the third-most shots on goal per game to opposing centers, and few centers are as dynamic as McDavid.

The Edmonton star has a goal in four of the past six games, piling up 22 points across his last nine. Against the Blackhawks, McDavid has a goal in three straight to go along with nine points and 19 shots on goal. Load it all up tonight with the Edmonton center.

Betting: Connor McDavid goal (-115 DK), Connor McDavid over 3.5 SOG (-105 DK)


In the news ...

'MNF' sees a pair of upsets with Titans and Giants last-second wins — We had a pair of surprising results on "MNF" last night, headlined by the 14-point underdog Tennessee Titans mounting a furious comeback to take down the Miami Dolphins. Will Levis looked fantastic and fiery out there, and maybe just maybe Tennessee has found its QB. The Titans don't have much of a postseason chance, and the loss dropped Miami to 9-4. The Dolphins remain the two-seed in the AFC at the moment, but their schedule gets very tough here. Don't sleep on the 7-6 Bills to win the AFC East at +300. The Dolphins and Bills will play in Week 18, which could be for the division. In the NFC, the Packers fell to the New York Giants with a field goal as time expired. Green Bay is now 6-7, but they still hold the final wild-card spot in the conference for now, and they're +104 to make the playoffs, favorites among the five 6-7 NFC teams.

Shohei Ohtani's unique contact structure should allow Dodgers to keep adding talent — We'd be lying if we said we had heard of such a thing, but reports suggest that Shohei Ohtani is deferring $680 million of his $700 million contract until 10 years from now. Instead, Ohtani will be making just $2 million a year for 10 years, which frees up the Dodgers big time to keep adding pieces for a World Series run (or 10). Japanese RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be next. Yamamoto is expected to sign the richest ever deal for a Japanese pitcher. The 25-year old has all the makings of an ace, sporting a 1.82 ERA across seven seasons in Japan. The Dodgers are +550 to win it all this season.

UNC quarterback Drake Maye declares for NFL draft — North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has been projected as a top-five pick for months, and he's confirmed that he's done with college football, declaring for the NFL Draft on Monday. Maye stands at 6-foot-4 and has dual-threat ability to go along with his prototypical size. He's widely accepted to be the second QB taken next April behind Caleb Williams. As it stands, the top of the draft is Chicago, New England and Arizona.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics

The Cavs and Celtics both play relatively slow compared to most of the league, and each team is known more for their defensive prowess. At first glance that screams under, so don't mind if we do. Grab under 223.5 points.
Tuesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Cavaliers
+11.5 (-110) +460 > 223.5 (-118)
Celtics
-10.5 (-113) -550 < 223.5 (-105)
2 Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers

There have been some fun meetings between these two teams over the past year, and the one commonality has been points scored. Buoyed a bit by a 2-OT game, the last three games between the Kings and Clippers have averaged 284.7 points, but all three also went over this line. We'll be on over 234 points out west tonight.
Tuesday, 10:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Kings
+3.5 (-115) +130 > 234 (-110)
Clippers
-2.5 (-115) -147 < 234 (-110)
3 Jusuf Nurkic over 2.5 assists 

Nurkic has dished out 3+ dimes in six of his last seven games and 16 of 22 games on the year. That should be able to continue here against a Golden State defense allowing the fourth-most assists/game to centers. 

Latest Odds:  -145
4 Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Rangers

We're thinking the right path is to take advantage of the Toronto Maple Leafs, playing their second game in as many nights. The Maple Leafs have been getting peppered by shots of late on the road, allowing 3+ goals per game. The Rangers offense should find their spots, so we'll opt for New York moneyline at -160.
Tuesday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Maple Leafs
+1.5 (-160) +150 > 6 (-115)
Rangers
-1 (-110) -170 < 6 (-120)
5 Detroit Red Wings @ St. Louis Blues

The numbers are saying goals are coming, and we're thinking of listening. Detroit is scoring 3.4 goals per game and allowing 4.2 more per game on the road over the past month, while St. Louis has allowed 4.5 goals per game to go along with 4.3 goals per game at home in the same span. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 7+ goals, so grab this over.
Tuesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Red Wings
+1.5 (-200) +120 > 6.5 (-106)
Blues
-1 (+110) -135 < 6.5 (+100)
6 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins assist 


RNH is facing a Chicago Blackhawks team allowing 4+ goals per game, and he should continue rolling with his offensive creation for Edmonton. Nugent-Hopkins has six assists in his last three games and has notched five in the past three meetings with Chicago.

Latest Odds:  -140

Betting News & Notes

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