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February 09, 2024: You'll be high-fiving when you hit this HUGE Super Bowl long-shot lotto parlay

By this point, you likely have plenty of Super Bowl bets in your pocket. It's time to look at a safer bankroll builder style play and a long shot look, just for fun.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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You'll be high-fiving when you hit this HUGE Super Bowl long-shot lotto parlay

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates with wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11). Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Well, this is it, isn't it? We have covered the Super Bowl wall-to-wall for the past two weeks, and you likely have plenty of bets in your pocket at this point.

Some of our favorites we've previously covered include ...

  • Chiefs moneyline (+110)
  • Christian McCaffrey MVP (+425)
  • Rashee Rice to lead game in receptions (+195)
  • Isiah Pacheco & McCaffrey 25+ rush yards in each half (+260)

Now, we load up one or two more bets, looking at a safer bankroll builder style play and a longer-shot look for fun.

Bankroll builder and lotto parlay for Super Bowl Sunday

Four players who seem poised for prop success

We've studied these offenses for two weeks now, and most of our research kept coming back to these names in some form. We've got four legs in this parlay, coming in at +292 on FanDuel. We've moved them down a tad off their normal line to give us a bit of breathing room.

First leg: Travis Kelce 60+ receiving yards

Kelce is going to see his targets. He has 70+ yards in 12 straight postseason games, and here we are, asking for just 60 or more. Sam LaPorta nearly went for 100 against San Francisco last game, so figure to hear Kelce's name early and often in this one.

Second leg: Christian McCaffrey 80+ rushing yards

McCaffrey has averaged 91.5 rushing yards per game this year, and he has 80+ yards in 12 of 18 games. Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most yards per rush this season, and McCaffrey should see close to 20 carries in this one. 

Third leg: Rashee Rice 5+ receptions

San Francisco has allowed the fifth-most receptions to WRs on the year, and Rashee Rice has been Patrick Mahomes's favorite non-Kelce option in the passing game. Rice has 5+ catches in eight of his last nine games, with six of those contests seeing him haul in 7+ receptions.

Fourth leg: George Kittle 3+ receptions

Don't sleep on the other tight end in this game, George Kittle. Kittle has 3+ catches in 14 of 18 games this season, and with the Chiefs star corners on Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Kittle should see some favorable matchups throughout.

Again, these four parlayed together on FanDuel is +292.


Long-shot lotto parlay

If you're looking for a ridiculous parlay, we've got you covered there.

First and second leg: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 50+ yards and TD

MVS has come on strong of late for Kansas City, with three 30+ yard catches in his past two games. That deep-threat ability could come in handy, as the 49ers have started to be a bit more leaky to explosive passes of late. They've allowed three 20+ yard completions in each of their two playoff games, and had allowed the 10th-most explosive passes over the last month and a half of the regular season.

If MVS breaks deep for another big catch, why can't he find the end zone too?

Third leg: Brock Purdy TD

Purdy has been showing off his legs a bit more of late, with 62 yards in his two playoff games. It certainly would be a nice time to leave it all out there, and should San Francisco find themselves in close, a Purdy run would certainly catch the Chiefs off guard with them likely selling out to stop McCaffrey. 

Hey, this is a long shot, but, it's +13000 on DraftKings. We'll throw a cup of coffee on it.

Enjoy the big game!!


In the news ...

NFL individual awards announced — NFL Honors was held last night, and the biggest betting surprise was likely Joe Flacco taking home Comeback Player of the Year honors over Damar Hamlin despite joining Cleveland for just a few games. At one point, you could have bet Flacco at +6000 to win the award. Elsewhere, Lamar Jackson won his second MVP and C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson of the Houston Texans won the two Rookie of the Year honors, the second time in the past two years teammates won both awards. Christian McCaffrey won OPOY, and Cleveland continued to clean up, with head coach Kevin Stefanski winning Coach of the Year and Myles Garrett winning DPOY. 

NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2024 announced — The latest Hall of Fame class for the NFL was announced last night, and it's a star-studded group that includes Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Andre Johnson, Patrick Willis and Devin Hester. Randy Gradishar and Steve McMichael were both also named to the Hall as senior candidates. The biggest snub has to be Antonio Gates, the Chargers' star tight end, on his first year of eligibility. Gates will have to wait another year, but his inclusion seems only a matter of time.

Knicks seem to win trade deadline day — Trade deadline day in the NBA passed without too much excitement, but one team in particular seems to have made significant improvements to their rotation, that being the New York Knicks. New York acquired Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, a pair of wings both shooting over 40% from deep this year, valuable assets for a team that is quietly loaded with talent. Following the moves, New York's title odds improved from +2500 to +2000, the seventh-best odds in the league. We have been bullish on the Knicks for a few weeks now; they're worth a look no doubt.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions 

McCaffrey has gone over this 4.5 catch line in three of his last five games, with the two unders both resulting in four reception totals. Eight of the past nine RBs to see Kansas City have covered their reception prop, and McCaffrey figures to be heavily involved in this one. Grab this over.

Latest Odds:  -125
2 Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions 

Purdy tossed an interception in the NFC Championship Game and should have his hands full against one of the NFL's elite secondaries. On the sport's biggest stage, we'll fade Purdy a tad with a bet on him throwing a pick. He has seven INTs over his past eight games.

Latest Odds:  -125
3 Dayton Flyers @ Virginia Commonwealth Rams

Dayton is definitely the better team here, owning a stronger efficiency ranking on both ends of the floor. Sporting an impressive 5-2 record on the road, we'll back the Flyers here to win at -110.
Friday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Dayton
-1 (-105) -110 > 135 (-110)
Virginia Commonwealth
+1.5 (-110) +105 < 135 (-106)
4 San Diego State Aztecs @ Nevada Wolfpack

Both sides here play an extremely slow brand of basketball, coming in 235th and 252nd, respectively, in pace of play. These are two teams that tend to play better on defense than they do with the ball in their hands. To us, that sounds like an under, so that's the path we take with under 140 points.
Friday, 8:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
San Diego State
+2.5 (-108) +118 > 140 (-110)
Nevada
-2 (-110) -132 < 140 (-110)
5 Pittsburgh Penguins @ Minnesota Wild

When these two meet, goals tend to follow. Six of the past seven meetings between the Penguins and Wild have seen 7+ goals, with four of those games going for 9+ total. We'll trust that head-to-head history and grab over 5.5 here.
Friday, 8:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Penguins
-1 (+135) -124 > 5.5 (-140)
Wild
+1.5 (-225) +115 < 5.5 (-132)
6 Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks

The Oilers fell one win short of tying the longest winning streak in NHL history, but we like them to bounce back here against a Ducks team that has not played in 10 days. Edmonton has beaten Anaheim in five straight meetings and eight of the past nine, often handily. Roll with Oilers -1.5 tonight.
Friday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Oilers
-1.5 (-114) -275 > 6.5 (-103)
Ducks
+1.5 (-102) +235 < 6.5 (-110)

Betting News & Notes

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Super Bowl MVP: Focusing on our top five betting choices 

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Super Bowl picks: Experts’ prop and MVP bets for 49ers-Chiefs

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Super Bowl King of Props: Action in the other end zone

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Two Super Bowl player props built on explosive plays

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Super Bowl prediction and pick: THE Isiah Pacheco prop to bet

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For all the latest betting news, check out the
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