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March 06, 2024: NCAAB bets: Finding some mid-major value amid the Madness

March Madness is officially here, folks. No, Selection Sunday isn't until March 17, but we can still warm up for the NCAA Tournament with some conference tournament action leading up to the big day.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NCAAB bets: Finding some mid-major value amid the Madness

Appalachian State Mountaineers forward Donovan Gregory (11). Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

March Madness is officially here, folks. No, Selection Sunday isn't until March 17, but we can still warm up for the NCAA Tournament with some conference tournament action leading up to the big day. Let's check out some mid-major conferences and see if we can pick off a few tournament winners at big prices. 

Conference tournament picks

Sun Belt: Appalachian State Mountaineers (+200 FanDuel)

The Sun Belt Conference seems to be a two-team race between James Madison (28-3) and Appalachian State (26-5). Whichever team comes out on top will be a dangerous first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament, but we're going with the bigger price in App State.

There isn't much of a difference between these two teams. James Madison is only 13 spots higher than App State in KenPom's efficiency rankings, but the Mountaineers swept the season series and defeated No. 13 Auburn in the non-conference. These prices should be close to equal, so we'll take the value on App State. 

Patriot League: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (+1100 DraftKings)

This is strictly a bet on the price. Lehigh is the second choice at +700 to win the Patriot League at other sportsbooks, but DraftKings is being kind enough to lay a +1100. Please and thank you.

Colgate (22-9, 16-2 in conference) is a massive favorite to win the tournament. The Raiders are by far the best team in the conference, and they'll get to play every game on their home court. Although Lehigh limped to a 12-17 record in the regular season, the Mountain Hawks played Colgate tough, losing by only three points in both matchups. 

Lehigh plays Lafayette, a team it swept in the regular season, in the first round. Then, the Mountain Hawks would likely face Boston U, which they lost to by a combined three points in two matchups this season. Lehigh steps up its game against the heavy hitters in the Patriot League, so this is worth a sprinkle at 11/1. 


In the news ...

Giants won't use the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley — For the first time in his career, Saquon Barkley is about to become an unrestricted free agent. The New York Giants won't place the franchise tag on Barkley for the second consecutive season, leaving the star running back free to choose his next team in free agency. According to SportsLine, the Houston Texans are the favorites to land Barkley this summer. 

Undermanned Cavaliers snap Celtics' 11-game winning streak — The Cleveland Cavaliers entered Tuesday night's bout against the red-hot Boston Celtics missing Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus. They then lost Evan Mobley to an ankle sprain in the third quarter, allowing the Celtics to build a 22-point lead. Somehow, the beat-up Cavs put together a furious comeback in the fourth quarter to win outright as 8.5-point underdogs and snap Boston's 11-game winning streak. Cleveland is +950 to win the Eastern Conference. 

The PGA Tour stars return for the Arnold Palmer Invitational — After a few lackluster weeks on the PGA Tour, the stars are back for the fourth signature event of the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scottie Scheffler (+650) and Rory McIlroy (+800) top the odds board, but we like a few guys further down in the outright market.

Florida Panthers acquire Tarasenko — Today, the Florida Panthers reached a deal with the Ottawa Senators to acquire two-time All-Star Vladimir Tarasenko, as first reported by Darren Dreger. Tarasenko has 17 goals and 24 assists in 57 games this season. The Panthers are +700 favorites to win the Stanley Cup.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Villanova Wildcats @ Seton Hall Pirates

Villanova is on a roll with five wins in its last six games. This is a team the advanced metrics have loved all season, and the results are finally starting to reflect the strong play. In a crucial game for their NCAA Tournament hopes, the Wildcats should take care of business against a Seton Hall team they bested by 26 a few weeks ago. We'll take Nova +1.5. 
Wednesday, 6:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Villanova
+1.5 (-119) +100 > 133 (-110)
Seton Hall
-1 (-110) -110 < 133 (-110)
2 Connecticut Huskies @ Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette lost to UConn by 28 points a few weeks ago, but this is a much different team on its home floor. The Golden Eagles are 11-4 against the spread at home this season, and they've won their last six home games by an average of 20.3 points. This spread is taking too much stock in the first matchup, so we'll take the Golden Eagles to cover +5.5. 
Wednesday, 8:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Connecticut
-4.5 (-120) -220 > 150.5 (-118)
Marquette
+5.5 (-110) +190 < 150.5 (-108)
3 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks

This is a brutal spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are coming off a miraculous comeback win against the Celtics, they have to fly to Atlanta for a back-to-back and they'll likely be without Mitchell, Strus and Mobley. If there was ever a letdown spot in the NBA, this would be it. Give us the Hawks -2.5.
Wednesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Cavaliers
+2.5 (-108) +118 > 214.5 (-105)
Hawks
-2.5 (-109) -130 < 214.5 (-115)
4 Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors

The Bucks are starting to hit their stride with six straight wins, and they knocked off the Los Angeles Clippers last game without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup. The Greek Freak is questionable to suit up on Wednesday night, but if he plays, Milwaukee will likely close as a favorite. We're grabbing the Bucks +4.5 now and hoping for some good injury news. 
Wednesday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Bucks
+4.5 (-118) +145 > 226.5 (-111)
Warriors
-3.5 (-112) -162 < 226.5 (-110)
5 Matthieu Pavon top-20 finish

The Arnold Palmer Invitational may have a star-studded field, but we're targeting a lesser-known player to have a strong finish this week. Matthieu Pavon has two wins and eight top-15 finishes in his last 12 worldwide starts. The Frenchman is on fire with his irons and putter right now, so finishing top 20 in a 69-player field shouldn't be an issue. 

Latest Odds:  +200

Betting News & Notes

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