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April 15, 2024: NBA playoff futures: Let's fade these favorites

The NBA regular season has come to a close, and we're excited to get rolling with the playoffs. Now that we have an idea of what the bracket will look like, it's the perfect time to target a two-pack of conference futures.

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NBA playoff futures: Let's fade these favorites

Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown (7). Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA regular season has come to a close, and we're excited to get rolling with the playoffs. Now that we have an idea of what the bracket will look like, it's the perfect time to target a two-pack of conference futures. We're fading the favorites with these two longer shots to reach the NBA Finals. 

Philadelphia 76ers to win the Eastern Conference (+850 FanDuel)

It's hard to trust any team in the Eastern Conference right now. The Milwaukee Bucks are limping into the playoffs with an injured Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Cleveland Cavaliers finished the regular season with nine losses in their last 15 games, and they ranked 22nd in net rating over that span. The New York Knicks are a great regular-season team, but they don't have the star power to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The 76ers have been untrustworthy for years, but they went 31-8 with Joel Embiid in the lineup this season. Philadelphia finished the regular season on an eight-game winning streak with the best net rating in the league over that span. If they can knock off the Miami Heat in the play-in tournament, the Sixers would be favored over the No. 2 seed Knicks, and they wouldn't have to face the Celtics until the Eastern Conference Finals. This might be the only team outside of Boston that can make the NBA Finals. 

Dallas Mavericks to win the Western Conference (+800 FD)

The Denver Nuggets are by far the most likely team to come out of the Western Conference, but we'd like to fade the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves because of their youth and inexperience. 

The Mavericks finished the season with an NBA-best 12-3 record in the last 15 games, and they had the best defensive rating in the league over that span. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have never looked better as teammates, and it's such a huge advantage in the playoffs to have two players who can create their own shot at the end of games. Dallas is our favorite flier in the West. 


In the news ...

Scottie Scheffler wins The Masters — Scheffler entered the 2024 Masters as the heavy betting favorite to win (+400), and he showed why on Sunday at Augusta National. While everyone else in contention crumbled down the stretch, Scheffler made four birdies on the back 9 to shoot a 68 and win by four strokes at -11. The World No. 1 now has two green jackets in his locker, and he's going to be the favorite for the other three major championships in 2024. 

NBA Play-In Tournament begins this week — The NBA regular season wrapped up on Sunday, and now we turn our attention to the NBA Play-In Tournament. On Tuesday, the New Orleans Pelicans (+1) will host the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Sacramento Kings (+2.5) will host the Golden State Warriors. On Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) will face off against the Miami Heat, and the Chicago Bulls (-3) will take on the Atlanta Hawks. Of the eight play-in teams this year, the Sixers have the best odds to win the title at +1900. 

Colts sign DeForest Buckner to two-year, $46 million extension — The Indianapolis Colts are locking down a defensive stalwart, signing Buckner to a two-year extension worth $46 million. The defensive tackle has recorded at least 7.0 sacks in six straight seasons, and he's coming off a career-high 81 tackles in 2023. Buckner is 200-1 to win Defensive Player of the Year next season. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros

If you like offense, this is going to be the game for you. The Braves and Astros rank first and third, respectively, in MLB this season in batting average and OPS. Braves starter Darius Vines will be making his first start in 2024, and Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti gave up seven earned runs in his first start of the year. Take the over 10. 
Monday, 8:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Braves
-1 (+110) -112 > 10 (-115)
Astros
+1.5 (-145) -102 < 10 (-118)
2 Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

The Mets have turned it on after a rough start to the season. Over the last week, New York ranks first in MLB in batting average, second in OPS and second in runs per game. The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven games, and sportsbooks are still rating them closer to the team that started 0-5. We'll take the Mets' moneyline at -122.
Monday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Pirates
+1.5 (-190) +110 > 8.5 (-108)
Mets
+1.5 (-213) -122 < 8.5 (-105)
3 San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

We have a classic case of the wrong team favored here. The Brewers are batting .313 with a .890 OPS and 8.4 runs per game over the last week, and Padres starter Joe Musgrove has the second-highest xwOBA in MLB among qualified pitchers. Musgrove has surrendered at least four earned runs in three of his four starts this year, and we expect the struggles to continue against a red-hot Milwaukee lineup. Give us the Brewers moneyline at +112.
Monday, 7:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Padres
+1.5 (-210) +105 > 8.5 (-102)
Brewers
+1.5 (-180) -112 < 8.5 (-110)
4 Charlie Blackmon to record 2+ total bases

Blackmon loves facing off against Aaron Nola. In 27 career at-bats against the Philadelphia Phillies starter, Blackmon is batting .407 with two home runs and four doubles. Six of Blackmon's 14 hits this season have been extra-base hits, so we like him to record at least two total bases in a great matchup. 

Latest Odds:  +115
5 Merrill Kelly over 1.5 walks

Kelly recorded a career-worst 9.6 percent walk rate last season, and his control issues have lingered into 2024. The Arizona Diamondbacks starter has the 15th-highest out-of-zone rate (54.5 percent) to start the season. The Chicago Cubs rank third in MLB in walk rate (10.6 percent), so we like the over here. 

Latest Odds:  -140 

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