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May 31, 2024: NHL playoffs: Load up on the Stars for Game 5

Great question, yes, we did win both of our bets shared yesterday. That always feels good, and we may as well just go ahead and keep on doing the "winning" thing.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NHL playoffs: Load up on the Stars for Game 5

Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Great question, yes, we did win both of our bets shared yesterday. That always feels good, and we may as well just go ahead and keep on doing the "winning" thing. The only playoff game is between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars in a big Game 5, so it's there we go.

No telescope needed to find value in the Stars

The play: 

  • Dallas Stars moneyline
  • Wyatt Johnston point
  • Jason Robertson 2+ shots

The odds: 

  • +234 FanDuel

The reason:

  • Dallas has won five straight games this postseason following a loss, outshooting its opponents in four of them. Back at home, the Stars should be able to better control the pace and grab a pivotal third game in this series. We especially like the Stars after they blew a quick 2-0 lead in Game 4. Expect an aggressive and dominant Stars team to show up in front of their home faithful.
  • If the Stars are going to win, it goes without saying they need to score some goals. Wyatt Johnston is a natural choice to get involved. The 21-year-old forward has emerged as a star, and he now has four points in his last three games, including goals in back-to-back games. Johnston has seven points in nine home games and has been Dallas' most dominant even-strength player for much of this postseason.
  • Jason Robertson has popped in the two games since Roope Hintz returned to the lineup, piling up seven SOG on 11 attempts. Robertson has 2+ shots in 75% of his games this year when Hintz plays, and he has 2+ shots in 11 of his last 13 against the Oilers.

Nothing too crazy from us today, so enjoy the game, and see you next week!


In the news ...

Mavericks move on to NBA Finals, to face Boston Celtics — Dallas easily dispatched the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5, winning 124-103. With the win, the Mavs head back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2011. It will be Dallas vs. Boston in the NBA Finals, and Game 1 is not until next Thursday. As it stands, the Celtics are -225 favorites to win it all, while the Mavericks are +185. Game 1 moneyline odds are identical prices. Boston has won all four meetings against Dallas over the past two seasons.

Florida Panthers take huge Game 5 on the road — The Panthers grabbed a massive win on Thursday night, beating the Rangers 3-2 and taking an identical 3-2 series lead. The Eastern Conference Final now heads back to Florida on Saturday, and the Panthers have a chance to go back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight season. We have a feeling they do just that, as do sportsbooks, considering the Panthers are -170 to win Game 6.

Tatum and Doncic open as Finals MVP favorites — Predictably, the two star players on their respective teams have opened as the betting favorites to win Finals MVP. Tatum is the -130 favorite on the heavily-favored Celtics, while Doncic may offer some value at +210. If you think Dallas wins it all, rather than bet them to do it at +185, you might be better suited spreading a pair of bets on Luka MVP at +210 and Kyrie Irving to win MVP at +3000. The Finals tip off on June 6.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars

We can't help but think a return to Dallas might bring with it another lower-scoring game. The first two games of this series saw four and five goals, so while things did open up in the last two games, we're thinking that may just be a product of playing in Edmonton. Roll with under 5.5 in this one.
Friday, 8:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Oilers
+1.5 (-238) +110 > 5.5 (-115)
Stars
-1 (+128) -128 < 5.5 (-135)
2 Miles Mikolas under 4.5 Ks 

Today seems like a good day to fade St. Louis' Mikolas, who has gone over this 4.5 line in just four of 11 on the season. Today brings with it a tough matchup against a Phillies team that hits RHP incredibly well, and does not strike out often (fifth-lowest rate). Mikolas has gone under in five of the last six against Philadelphia, failing to exceed 3.5 in four straight.

Latest Odds:  -150
3 Sixto Sanchez under 2.5 Ks 

This could be a sweaty fade at just 2.5, but all the numbers suggest Sixto Sanchez should struggle to pile up strikeouts against Texas. Since growing his role as a starter, Sanchez is under this in four of six, landing on three Ks on the two games he went over. His advanced numbers have him as one of the worst strikeout pitchers in MLB, and that's a tough place for success against a Rangers team that strikes out at the fourth-lowest rate against RHP. Fade Sanchez today and enjoy the sweat.

Latest Odds:  +140
4 Jose Soriano over 5.5 Ks 

We have to consider fading the Seattle Mariners with opposing strikeout props, as no team strikes out more often against right-handed pitching than Seattle. That should open the door for another strong showing from Soriano, who has gone over this line in three of his last four and six of his last nine. Nab the over on the Angels righty later tonight.

Latest Odds:  -150
5 Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty

The Liberty are the far better team in this one and worth a wager. New York's +7.6 net-rating is third-highest in the league, while Washington's abysmal -11.6 net-rating is second-worst. This really shouldn't be much of a contest. Grab New York -13.5.
Friday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mystics
+14.5 (-112) +750 > 160.5 (-110)
Liberty
-13.5 (-110) -1000 < 160.5 (-110)
6 Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx

We expect the difference in this one to be defense. Minnesota has it (second-best defensive rating), Phoenix does not (second-worst defensive rating). Call us crazy, but that's more than enough for us to load up a spread bet. Back the Lynx at -6.5.
Friday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mercury
+7 (-110) +240 > 163.5 (-118)
Lynx
-6.5 (-108) -298 < 163.5 (-105)

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