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June 03, 2024: NBA Finals futures: Some longer-odds plays for series leaders

We have a brief lull in the sporting calendar, as we await the start of the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final. Our best course of action to start a fresh week seems to be in the series futures market.

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NBA Finals futures: Some longer-odds plays for series leaders

Boston Celtics guard Derrick White. Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

We have a brief lull in the sporting calendar, as the NBA Finals don't start until Thursday and the Stanley Cup Final gets going on Saturday. We touch on MLB below the fold, but our best course of action to start a fresh week seems to be in the series futures market. Today is NBA; tomorrow we'll look to the ice.

Series leader futures for the NBA Finals

Sportsbooks are offering a ton of intriguing options before these series get underway, namely which player will lead the Finals in a variety of statistics. For some, we have heavy favorites, but that only opens the door to some value elsewhere.

We'd recommend going light on most of these. They are some longer-odds looks we like!

Most points: Jaylen Brown (+1300)

Luka Doncic is the understandable favorite in this market (-205), but we like a sprinkle on Jaylen Brown to take home the points leader crown. Brown had a big Eastern Conference Finals, averaging 29.75 points per game, and the last time Boston was in the NBA Finals, he was their high scorer for the series over Jayson Tatum. 

On the season, the Mavericks definitely struggle to slow down opposing wings, allowing the seventh-most points per game to SFs and the ninth-most to SGs. However you categorize Brown, he should have room to operate in this series and has been a massive reason for Boston's success.

Most threes: Derrick White (+250)

We do like Luka Doncic here at +100, but we're going to the board a bit to Derrick White at +250. Luka has averaged 3.4 made threes per game this postseason on 9.8 three-point attempts per game. Very solid numbers and terrific volume.

White isn't that far behind him, though. The Celtics guard has averaged an identical 3.4 made threes per game on 8.4 attempts per game.

While he shoots a touch less than Doncic, he's making the same amount. That's enough for us to take the better odds and back White to have a big shooting series.

Most rebounds: Dereck Lively II (+1400)

All-Rookie second-teamer Dereck Lively II has been a key cog for Dallas' run this postseason, averaging 7.2 boards per game across their 16 games, and seeing a major uptick of late.

Over his last six, Lively has averaged 9.3 boards per game. That's a role that we can get behind in a market like series-rebound leader. The two favorites are Tatum and Doncic, but Lively should see plenty of rebounding chances; it's just about converting them.

In the news ...

Stanley Cup Final is set with Florida vs. Edmonton — We had both NHL Conference Final series wrap up this weekend in six games. Florida took down New York 2-1 on Saturday to advance to their second-straight Stanley Cup Final, while Edmonton beat Dallas 2-1 yesterday to make their first Cup final since 2006. Connor McDavid headlines the final as a Canadian team looks to hoist the Stanley Cup for the first time in 31 years. As it stands, Florida are -130 favorites to win, while McDavid is the +220 favorite to win the Conn Smythe. The Final will begin Saturday in Florida.

Justin Jefferson becomes highest-paid non-QB — Vikings star WR Justin Jefferson has finally reset the market as we all thought he would, signing a four-year, $140 million contract extension with Minnesota on Monday, including $110 million guaranteed. Jefferson now becomes the highest-paid non-quarterback, and has forced the hands of other teams who were waiting things out with their WRs, namely Dallas and CeeDee Lamb and Cincinnati and Ja'Marr Chase. Jefferson will either have veteran Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy throwing him the football this season, and he's +1500 to win another Offensive Player of the Year award.

MLB owns the sporting calendar today — This Monday is all about Major League Baseball, as it's the only league in action for the first time all season. This sure seems like a good time to highlight that our team is hard at work every day churning out resources and best bets for you to take to the diamond. We've got Action Network's experts offering their best picks, and YB's own Jack Dougherty is dissecting the prop market on the daily. Be sure to explore our Sports Betting Hub every day for the latest MLB picks and predictions.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Tylor Megill over 4.5 Ks

The Mets' Megill is averaging 6.6 Ks/game across his last five starts and now draws a Nationals team that has allowed three of the last four starting righties to cover their K prop against them. The Nationals are one of the worst teams at hitting RHP, which should give Megill a path to 6+ innings today. He's over in five straight starts, averaging 7.4 Ks/game when he goes at least six.

Latest Odds:  -130
2 Grayson Rodriguez over 5.5 Ks

Baltimore's Rodriguez is over this line in seven of nine this season, and has gone for 7+ in four of his last five. It's nice to see a pitcher cashing his prop with room to spare, and he's also gone over against Toronto in two of the past three meetings. The Blue Jays aren't a great K target, however, three straight RHPs have covered their K prop against Toronto, so things may be sliding a bit in this lineup. Grab the over for Rodriguez.

Latest Odds:  -115
3 Nathan Eovaldi over 4.5 Ks

Fading the Detroit Tigers is always a good idea in the strikeouts market. The Tigers are striking out at the eighth-highest rate against righties, and that's good news for a guy of Eovaldi's caliber who has logged 8+ Ks in five of his last 10 and has gone over this measly 4.5 line seven times in his past 10 starts. Back the Texas starter to have another solid outing.

Latest Odds:  -135
4 Matt Waldron over 4.5 Ks

San Diego's Waldron is picking up some major steam on the mound of late, fanning 6+ batters in four straight, averaging 7.75 per game in that stretch. Tonight he'll see an Angels team striking out at the 10th-highest rate against RHP while also struggling to hit righties. Load up another big Waldron day.

Latest Odds:  -130

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