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June 11, 2024: MLB best bets: It's Dinger Tuesday!

We have a respite from the finals action tonight, and luckily such a break comes to us on a Tuesday, so you know what that means: Dingers.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB best bets: It's Dinger Tuesday!

Texas Rangers second base Marcus Semien (2) celebrates with Texas Rangers right fielder Adolis Garcia (53) after hitting a home run. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

One more Evan Bouchard shot last night sure would have been nice. We have a respite from the finals action tonight, and luckily such a break comes to us on a Tuesday, so you know what that means: Dingers.

Be sure to opt in to sportsbooks' Dinger Tuesday promotions to fully take advantage of the day. Let's find us a few homer props worth backing.

Ding-dong: Homers are here

Cody Bellinger (+425 BetMGM best price)

The Cubs' Bellinger has not hit a home run in nine games, but he's starting to get good wood on the ball, recording 2+ total bases in three of his last four games thanks to some hard-hit balls.

This evening, Bellinger and Chicago face off against Tampa Bay and Zach Eflin, and Bellinger has two HRs in 13 plate appearances against the Rays' righty.

We like that history mixed in with a guy who just seems due to go yard sooner before later.

Marcus Semien (+550 DraftKings best price)

Semien seems like one of the better bets to make on the Rangers end later tonight on the road against the Dodgers. Semien may have just 11 HRs on the year, but he's hit lefties far better for power this season.

James Paxton is toeing the rubber for the Dodgers, and all seven of his allowed HRs this year have come off the bats of righties. Semien also has found some success against Paxton in the past, knocking two homers and two doubles against him in 17 plate appearances.

Factor in that Semien just belted a home run on Sunday and now has two in his last six games, and we're liking a bit of momentum to build for tonight in Los Angeles.


Promos of the day

FanDuel

  • Dinger Tuesdays: Place a HR prop on any 6/11 game and get Bonus Bets for each Home Run both teams hit in that game
  • Parlay Boost Builder: Opt-in and apply a 15% boost to a 3-leg parlay, and receive an additional 10% boost for each leg you add

ESPN BET

  • One Dinger Everyone Wins: Place a $20+ parlay+ wager with odds +400 or longer. Regardless of the outcome, if there is a Home Run hit in the game, receive a $10 bonus bet

DraftKings

  • MLB Early Win: Win your moneyline bet if your team leads by at least 2 runs at ANY time, even if they lose the game
  • WNBA No Sweat Bet: Place a WNBA bet and get a bonus bet back if you lose

In the news ...

Florida Panthers take 2-0 series lead in Stanley Cup Final — We have another 2-0 finals lead, this time on the ice, as the Florida Panthers won 4-1 on Monday to build a Stanley Cup Final lead they may not relinquish. Evan Rodrigues led the way with two goals, and Sergei Bobrovsky is the massive Conn Smythe favorite now (-160) thanks to just one goal allowed through two games. Edmonton has been more competitive on home ice and will look to make this a series on Thursday, and they're currently -135 to win Game 3.

Dan Hurley staying at UConn — After flirting with the Los Angeles Lakers, Dan Hurley has decided to remain at UConn and pursue a three-peat with the Huskies program he's built. While it does seem Hurley has NBA aspirations down the line, it's clear there's some unfinished business in Storrs he'd like to see through first. The Lakers will continue their coaching search, and a name to monitor is once again JJ Redick. UConn is +1000 to win it all next season, the best odds in the nation, tied with Alabama and Kansas.

Get your U.S. Open prep in now — The U.S. Open tees off on Thursday from Pinehurst No. 2, but you may want to get in your betting prep now as you pocket a few winner bets in advance of the action. YB's golf expert Jack Dougherty put together his pitch (at +330) for Scottie Scheffler, who just seems to have the exact skill set that matches this course. If you're looking for some sleeper picks, consider Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka, both of whom come in at 100-1 and were broken down in more depth by the Action Network experts.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Max Fried over 5.5 Ks 

We're going to have to jump on this one. Atlanta's Fried is over this line in six of his past eight, and he's piled up an astronomical 28 Ks across his last three starts. Today he faces an Orioles team that fans at the seventh-highest rate vs. LHP, a team he had 7 Ks against last meeting. Grab this over.

Latest Odds:  -160
2 Paul Skenes over 7.5 Ks 

It's time to join the Paul Skenes ride and enjoy the show, as the Pittsburgh rookie has been a revelation on the mound since he was called up. He's averaging 7.6 Ks per game in five starts, going over this line in three of his last four, and his swinging strike rate sits in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers. St. Louis strikes out at the 10th-highest frequency against righties, Skenes should have another productive outing.

Latest Odds:  +100
3 Cal Quantrill over 1.5 walks allowed 

Colorado's Quantrill has walked 2+ batters in eight of his last 10 starts, and the last time he saw Minnesota, he logged three walks. The Twins are walking at the fifth-highest rate against RHP over the last month, which should help us hit this over tonight.

Latest Odds:  -165
4 Washington Mystics @ Atlanta Dream

The Mystics continue to struggle this year, 0-12 on the season with the league's second-worst net-rating. We'll gladly back the Dream at home against this lowly Washington side. Roll with Atlanta -6.5.
Tuesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mystics
+7.5 (-118) +250 > 155.5 (-110)
Dream
-6.5 (-112) -295 < 155.5 (-105)
5 Minnesota Lynx @ Las Vegas Aces

Don't sleep on Minnesota here against the two-time defending champs, the Lynx have been the better team this season both in the standings and in the advanced metrics. We're liking Minnesota to keep this one close, grab the Lynx +6.5.
Tuesday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Lynx
+6.5 (-108) +245 > 165 (-110)
Aces
-6 (-110) -278 < 165 (-112)
6 Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm

Seattle has the edge in all the important stats we'd care to see, and their fast offensive pace against a Sparks defense that leaves something to be desired paints our direction clearly tonight. We're on Seattle -11.5.
Tuesday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Sparks
+11.5 (-105) +490 > 157.5 (-110)
Storm
-11.5 (-105) -588 < 157.5 (-108)

Betting News & Notes

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WNBA best bets: Expert picks, player prop, predictions for Tue. 6/11

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MLB parlay: Pirates vs. Cardinals +719 same-game parlay for Tue. 6/11 

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Stanley Cup Final bets: Latest betting look at the series and the Conn Smythe

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MLB best bets: Props, picks, predictions for Tue. 6/11

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Euro 2024 group stage best bets: Scotland vs. Germany, Switzerland vs. Hungary, Netherland vs. Poland

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For all the latest betting news, check out the
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