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June 14, 2024: NBA Finals Game 4: Make some hay on this same-game parlay for Celts-Mavs

Sam Bennett netted one last night if you went his way alone, but Leon Draisaitl couldn't finish the parlay job. We're opting for something a bit more conservative to take with us for tonight's Game 4.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NBA Finals Game 4: Make some hay on this same-game parlay for Celts-Mavs

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Sam Bennett netted one last night if you went his way alone, but Leon Draisaitl couldn't finish the parlay job. We're opting for something a bit more conservative to take with us for tonight's Game 4. Could this be the last NBA bet of our year?

NBA bankroll-builder to head into the weekend

First leg: Jaylen Brown 20+ points

The Finals MVP favorite has 22, 21 and 30 points in three games this series, and he's averaging 26 points per game over his last seven meetings with the Mavericks.

Brown has been awesome, both shooting and driving the lane, and his offensive output isn't going away. The Celtics wing has averaged 24.9 points per game this postseason, going for 20+ in seven straight. We like this number as a foundational piece of this builder in Game 4.

Second leg: Derrick White 3+ threes made

Derrick White threes has been one of our favorite bets all series long, and he's drained 11 in all, going for 3+ in all three games. The Celtics guard has logged four treys in back-to-back games, and he's shot 8+ threes in eight straight games.

That volume is translating to makes, and there's no reason to think that slows down tonight.

Third leg: Al Horford 4+ rebounds

Transparently, we were hoping to have Horford as 5+ boards be a parlay leg, but FanDuel does not offer that denomination, so we're watering him down even more to be on the safe side, and push this SGP into plus-money territory for tonight.

Horford has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game this postseason, logging 5+ boards in all but one game. On the season, he has 4+ boards in 91% of his games, and without Porzingis, Horford should only see more time.

Thus far, he's hauled in seven, seven and five rebounds this series, so by all means, move him up to 6+ if you'd like.

This trio of prop looks comes in at +102 on FanDuel. We like all of them at higher numbers also, so if you want to be aggressive you have the green light from us, we're just looking for some consistent hit-rates that seem poised to continue.


Today's promos

DraftKings

  • NBA No Sweat SGP: Place a SGP for Game 4 and get a bonus bet back if your bet loses
  • Get a +200 odds surge to use on any player to hit a home run today

FanDuel

  • 30% SGP profit boost for Celtics-Mavericks
  • 30% MLB SGP profit boost
  • 25% boost on any U.S. Open bet

In the news ...

Florida Panthers take 3-0 Stanley Cup Final lead — You could have went to fill up your cup in the second period and sat back down and saw the score jump from 2-1 to 4-1, and that quick barrage was all she wrote in Game 3. Florida ultimately won 4-3 and are now just one win away from their first Stanley Cup. Edmonton just has not been able to generate enough offensively, especially on the power play, and while they may get one at home, this series is all but done. 

Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy first-round leaders at U.S. Open — This will be a bit outdated by the time it hits your in-box; such is the nature of the morning tee times. However, Round One saw McIlroy and Cantlay each shoot 5-under, with Ludvig Aberg sitting at -4. Scottie Scheffler had a rough Thursday at +1, but even that has not been enough to knock him down the board too much; he's still +450 to win. We kind of like a flyer on Bryson DeChambeau, who has obviously been in the mix of late and is inside the top five as of this morning. You can back him to win at +900.

Trevor Lawrence signs new contract to tie him for highest-paid player in the NFL — We have another QB contract domino falling, as Jacksonville has extended its former No. 1 overall pick, signing Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million deal. His annual salary now ties him with Joe Burrow for the highest-paid player in the league. While this isn't necessarily a surprise, it does highlight a difficult trend for teams; there are no true contract tiers in place for the QB position. Lawrence is a fine passer, but he is not an elite player, yet he's being paid as one. A similar issue happened just over a year ago, when the Giants handed Daniel Jones a monster contract rather than losing him. This trend is going to continue putting teams in binds, with the most logical next domino being Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, who for better or worse is likely about to become the highest-paid player in NFL history.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

This series is toast in our eyes. The Mavericks just do not have the firepower to keep up with the Celtics. Boston is too deep and too talented, and they've dropped just two games all postseason long. Boston at -105 on the moneyline is a bargain, so we're backing it.
Friday, 8:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Celtics
+1.5 (-119) -105 > 210.5 (-110)
Mavericks
+1.5 (-105) +100 < 210.5 (-109)
2 Saturday: Florida Panthers @ Edmonton Oilers 


Edmonton games have been far higher-scoring at home this postseason, averaging 7.0 goals per game, and that's the exact mark we got in Game 3. With the Oilers continue likely to be aggressive to try and generate something, that should lead to goals on both ends. Roll with over 5.5.

Latest Odds:  +100
3 Ranger Suarez over 4.5 Ks 

Suarez has been one of baseball's best this year for Philadelphia, and that should continue today in a big game against Baltimore. Suarez is over this line in 10 of 13 games, averaging 6.5 Ks per game, and his advanced metrics all suggest these have been well-earned strikeouts. Baltimore is fanning at the seventh-highest rate for LHP over the last month, so expect Suarez to rack 'em up.

Latest Odds:  +100
4 Logan Allen over 15.5 outs 

Cleveland's Allen is over this line in 62% of his starts this season and four of his last five, and he seems to be in a strong spot for another outing of 6+ innings. Toronto has been one of the worst lineups against lefties all season-long, but especially in the last month. Their wRC+ is the lowest in the league, and their OBP is second-worst. If they can't get hits off, it would suggest Allen can have an efficient night on the mound, so that's where our bet will go.

Latest Odds:  +115

Betting News & Notes

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