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July 02, 2024: Dinger Tuesday: When the wind blows out, there's little doubt

It's Tuesday, and that means it's time for some home run props. Be sure to explore all the various promotions that sportsbooks offer on days like this. 

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Dinger Tuesday: When the wind blows out, there's little doubt

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh. Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

It's Tuesday, and that means it's time for some home run props. Be sure to explore all the various promotions that sportsbooks offer on days like this (see below for more). You will want to opt in to those promotions in order to take full advantage of the day and cash in homers for the entire slate.

We're following the weather factors for our two favorite home run props today. Forecasts have the Brewers-Rockies and Phillies-Cubs games as the two most primed for a boost to homers, and it's there we look.

Looking for long-bomb bets tonight

Charlie Blackmon (+900 FanDuel)

Brewers at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Colorado's Charlie Blackmon just hit a homer yesterday against the Brewers, and we're hoping to see a streak begin to build. Blackmon hasn't found many HRs on the year, but he does have three in his past nine at home, and every single homer he has hit on the season has come against RHP.

Blackmon has a home run in two of his last three against the Brewers, and with favorable winds at Coors Field, we're liking taking a chance on some great odds in a game that could offer plenty of deep shots.

Honorable mention: Brendan Rodgers & Christian Yelich


Brandon Marsh (+600 FanDuel)

Phillies at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET

When considering who on Philadelphia hits right-handed pitching best, Brandon Marsh seems to be one of clear choices. His average, BABIP and ISO ratings all come in among the best from the Phillies, a trio of metrics that aim to quantify how well a better performs at the plate vs. a certain type of handedness.

Marsh has been a bit quiet on the homer front of late, but he did hit a dinger last time he was on the road, and he hit two homers in the same game last June at Wrigley. We're hoping that history pushes this pick over the edge, but there were a few more options of note below in this one.

Honorable mention: Seiya Suzuki & Alec Bohm


Today's promos

DraftKings

  • DraftKings Homerfest: Bet any player to hit a HR today and earn towards a bonus bet for every home run hit on Tuesday
  • WNBA No Sweat Bet: Place a WNBA bet and get a bonus bet back if you lose
  • Wimbledon 50% profit boost
  • MLB 50% Live Bet Profit Boost

FanDuel

  • Dinger Tuesday: Place a HR bet and get Bonus Bets for each Home Run both teams hit in that game
  • Parlay Boost Builder Profit Token: Build a 3 leg parlay and get a 15% profit boost. Get an additional 10% boost for each leg added
  • WNBA 30% Profit Boost

In the news ...

Mavs sign Klay Thompson; Celtics and Cavs lock up key pieces — There's plenty of NBA news to roundup we weren't able to get to yesterday, as free agency continues on. The Dallas Mavericks added Klay Thompson yesterday on a three-year deal, adding another shooter to surround Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Boston has locked up its championship core, signing Jayson Tatum to the richest contract in NBA history, and also securing Derrick White to a long-term deal. The Cavaliers also locked up their star, coming to an agreement on a new contract with Donovan Mitchell. The Mavericks (+1000), Celtics (+295) and Cavaliers (+4000) are all in the upper-half of the league for title odds next season.

USMNT fails to advance to Round of 16 in Copa America — The disappointments keep coming for the USMNT, falling to Uruguay 1-0 last night and failing to advance out of the group stage at Copa America. Widely regarded as one of the most talented pools of players the United States has ever had, the pressure is on to figure things out quickly in advance of the 2026 World Cup, which North America is hosting. The future of head coach Gregg Berhalter is very much TBD, but some wonder if it would be too little, too late at this point.

Oilers add Jeff Skinner, Nashville's big day worth a second look — We saw the team that lost in the Stanley Cup Final last year hoist it one season later, and the Edmonton Oilers are gearing up to do just that next. The Oilers added Jeff Skinner yesterday, a big boost to their top-six, and they also signed Viktor Arvidsson and re-signed Adam Henrique to round out their scorers surrounding their two stars. The Oilers are currently the +850 favorites to win it all next season. We do have to give a bit more attention to just how great of a day the Nashville Predators had yesterday. The signings of Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei round out one of the NHL's best rosters, as Nashville has ended each of their past two regular seasons on an incredibly strong note. The Preds currently sit at +1800 to win next year's Stanley Cup, a future worth backing now.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Mets-Nationals under 0.5 runs in first inning 

Washington's DJ Herz is a perfect 5-0 to the NRFI to begin his career, and New York's Sean Manaea is 74-27 since 2019 to this prop. Add in that no team scores less in the first than the Nationals, and we have a clear bet worth making to begin this evening.

Latest Odds:  -120
2 Angels-Athletics under 0.5 runs in first inning 

We have a pair of offenses who typically fail to get going early in this one. Oakland scores a first inning run at the fourth-lowest-rate in the league, and Los Angeles isn't far behind, with the 10th-lowest first-inning scoring rate. That couples nicely with the day's starters, as Oakland's Mitch Spence is 6-2 to the NRFI and Jose Soriano is 9-3 to the NRFI. Fade the first here.

Latest Odds:  -140
3 Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty

The Lynx have been the WNBA's best team over the last 10 games according to net-rating, sitting at +12.6, and they just beat New York by five in the Commissioner's Cup. Grab Minnesota +5.5 in this one.
Tuesday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Lynx
+5.5 (-120) +200 > 166.5 (-110)
Liberty
-4.5 (-112) -210 < 166.5 (-110)
4 Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces

Indiana has been playing much better basketball of late, and likely don't deserve to be as big of underdogs as they are here. Las Vegas's net-rating sits at just four points greater than the Fever over the last 10 games. We'll back Caitlin Clark and Indiana to keep this somewhat close with a bet on the Fever +13.5.
Tuesday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Fever
+13.5 (-105) +710 > 178.5 (-108)
Aces
-13.5 (-110) -1000 < 178.5 (-110)
5 Washington Mystics @ Los Angeles Sparks

The Sparks are one of the league's worst teams this season and over the last 10 games, while Washington has been playing far better basketball than what we saw to begin the year. We'll ride with the Mystics here on the moneyline.
Tuesday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mystics
+2.5 (-118) +110 > 163.5 (-110)
Sparks
-1.5 (-125) -125 < 163.5 (-106)

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