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July 05, 2024: The futures are now: We like these NFL futures bets

We hope you all enjoyed a great Fourth of July and are gearing up for the weekend! Today is all about the NFL, looking ahead to a few of the futures we've come across in our studies up to this point.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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The futures are now: We like these NFL futures bets

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9). Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

We hope you all enjoyed a great Fourth of July and are gearing up for the weekend! We at Bark Bets have opted for an abbreviated version of today's newsletter so we might too be able to get out in the sun and enjoy a bit of the summer.

Today is all about the NFL, looking ahead to a few of the futures we've come across in our studies up to this point. We've got three bets above the fold and four more below in Quick Picks.

Enjoy, and we'll see you back here on Monday!

NFL futures can bring on some delayed fireworks

Joe Burrow to win Comeback Player of the Year (+250 DraftKings)

ICYMI, the NFL and Associated Press worked to clarify the voting criteria for the Comeback Player of the Year award. The idea is to more properly focus on a player returning from an injury or the like that kept them off the field, which would conceivably throw away the narrative for many of the recent winners here, that being a player coming back from just being a bad player.

With that caveat, there are fewer choices to make, and we much prefer the outlook on Joe Burrow's 2024 compared to Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins.

We've been pounding the Bengals drum for some time, and after a year in which they missed the playoffs, largely due to Burrow's injuries, a return to health should in turn power one of the AFC's top seeds. Burrow could easily be pushing for MVP honors if he plays like we know he's shown himself capable of, but Comeback Player of the Year would be in the bag in such a scenario.

De'Von Achane to lead NFL in Rushing Yards (+2000 DraftKings)

This is a fun one, and one you really should get in the pocket now. Sure, Miami's De'Von Achane may not be the clear starting running back yet for the Dolphins, but in what world is he not dominating touches this year?

Achane rattled off a ridiculous 800 yards in his rookie season on just 103 carries, good for an absurd 7.8 yards per carry. Those types of numbers are unheard of, as the speedy running back consistently broke off massive touchdown runs when he got opportunities.

Mike McDaniel's zone-running scheme seems to be the perfect fit for Achane's skills, and if he gets a larger workload and comes anywhere close to his 2023 efficiency numbers, look out.

Keon Coleman Most Regular Season Receiving Yards Among Rookies (+600 DraftKings)

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the presumptive favorite to lead the NFL rookies in receiving this season, and for good reason. He immediately slots in as WR1 on Arizona and has all the tools to be a star wide receiver in the league.

With that established, we like looking down the line a bit to Keon Coleman, who was taken in the second round by the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo has lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, which opens up 241 targets and 1,929 yards. Obviously, Coleman shouldn't be expected to take on all of that work - that would be historic.

However, it goes to show that there is a ton of work up for grabs, and Coleman is one of the clear leaders to siphon off 100+ targets from Josh Allen. Tight end Dalton Kincaid should see a big uptick, as should the lone returning wide receiver in Khalil Shakir.

Coleman, though, slots in as a quintessential WR1 build at 6-foot-4, and Allen likely looks the rookie's way early and often to see if he can be trusted. We like taking a chance on a big rookie year out of Buffalo here.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Los Angeles Chargers to make playoffs

The Chargers did lose their top wide receivers, but they've built up their offensive line through the draft, and have key defensive pieces at every level. That, and they have an established elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. It's that latter point you can bet was the draw for Jim Harbaugh to leave Michigan and become the Chargers' next head coach. Last time Harbaugh came to the NFL and took on a team in transition, he led them to an NFC Championship in year one. While that type of run may not be in the cards for the Chargers, we like this price on them making a playoff push in the AFC.

Latest Odds:  +110
2 Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Caleb Williams is well set up for success, and we do think he likely takes this award should he lead Chicago to a playoff spot like we think he will. However, this is a price worth backing on Washington's Jayden Daniels. The most recent Heisman winner has shown himself to be an elite dual-threat, and as we've seen often in the past, young quarterbacks with rushing chops tend to lean on that early. Daniels should be producing both through the air and on the ground, and stacking up touchdowns in the process. He could easily have the more productive individual rookie season among the top QBs, and we'll stake a bet on just that.

Latest Odds:  +550
3 Josh Allen to win MVP

This coming season is a big one for the star Bills QB. Allen has lost his top pass-catchers from last year, and now must elevate the entire group similarly to what we've seen Patrick Mahomes do in Kansas City. We know he can do it, and when you tack on his rushing abilities, we're thinking a massive statistical season is coming for Allen. We like his chances to take home his first MVP while powering the Bills to one of the AFC's top seeds.

Latest Odds:  +850
4 Drake Maye under 2400.5 passing yards

There is no guarantee Drake Maye will even be the Week 1 starter in New England, it really seems as if he won't be. Working on that assumption, it seems only natural we run to this Maye under for his first season with the Patriots. New England has easily one of the least inspiring groups of skill-position players, so we're not expecting much passing success from this offense this year.

Latest Odds:  -110

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