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July 09, 2024: Dinger Tuesday: All things point to homers in these matchups

We've got three games on the docket that stand out for potential homer fests, and that's where we'll go to take advantage of some of the Tuesday home run promotions. 

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Dinger Tuesday: All things point to homers in these matchups

Oakland Athletics center fielder JJ Bleday. D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Our hitter trends had a solid 3-1 day, with a few of the highlighted players going off for big games. Hopefully you were able to put that to more use. We're thinking of structuring our intros like that a bit more this summer with so much baseball ahead.

We turn to the second day of the week, and you already know what that means.

Tuesday means dingers, so let's lock in

We've got three games on the docket that stand out for potential homer fests, and that's where we'll go to take advantage of some of the Tuesday home run promotions sportsbooks tend to run.

Oakland-Boston

Weather factors for why we're targeting: Projected 9% boost to HRs, 32% boost to extra-base hits

Who we like: JJ Bleday (+525 Caesars)
The Athletics' lead-off man has just 11 homers on the season, and he's gone 11 straight without one, so why target him tonight?

That's quite simple: he has had Boston starter Brayan Bello's number. In just five plate appearances, Bleday has gone yard twice. That's just history we cannot pass up. With Bleday hitting first in Oakland's lineup, we should be guaranteed at least two at-bats against Bello, and possibly three. Sign us up for another Bleday HR off Bello.
 
Honorable mention: Rafael Devers (+215 FanDuel)
Devers is scorching hot, with three homers in his past two games, and he's hit a HR in four of his last five games at home.

Colorado-Cincinnati

Weather factors for why we're targeting: Projected 40% boost to HRs, 5% boost to extra-base hits

Who we like: Rece Hinds (+500 Fanatics)
Rece Hinds hit a homer in his MLB debut, so why not just make it one of the best starts to a professional career ever by having the Reds prospect go long once again?

Hinds hit 13 HRs in 77 games this year in AAA, and he hit 23 last season in AA. His debut has us liking a look his way for Cincy in a game that seems ripe for plenty of dingers.

Honorable mention: Brenton Doyle (+575 Caesars)
Doyle has five home runs in his last 10 games and has been hot at the plate of late, piling up 12 hits across his last seven games.

LA Dodgers-Philadelphia

Weather factors for why we're targeting: Projected 31% boost to HRs, 8% boost to extra-base hits

Who we like: Teoscar Hernandez (+440 FanDuel)
We're always a sucker for batter vs. pitcher history, and you have to love seeing Hernandez's two HRs in just nine plate appearances against Philly starter Zack Wheeler. Hernandez has had some solid games of late at the plate, tallying 15 total bases in his last six games, and he has four HRs in his last 10 on the road.

Honorable mention: Alec Bohm (+520 FanDuel)
Bohm hits righties better for power and has two HRs in his last six at home.


Today's promos

DraftKings

  • DraftKings Homerfest: Bet any player to hit a HR today and earn towards a bonus bet for every home run hit on Tuesday
  • MLB 50% Live Bet Profit Boost
  • Wimbledon Profit Boost Pack
  • 50% Soccer SGP boost

FanDuel

  • Dinger Tuesdays: Place a HR bet and get Bonus Bets for each Home Run both teams hit in that game
  • Parlay Boost Builder: Build a 3-leg parlay and get a 15% profit boost. For each additional leg, the profit boost will increase by 10%
  • WNBA 30% Profit Boost
  • Soccer SGP 50% Profit Boost
  • Tennis 30% Profit Boosts

In the news ...

Dan Hurley signs six-year extension with UConn — After publicly flirting with the Lakers, Dan Hurley has made it official, signing a new six-year extension with UConn for $50 million to remain their head basketball coach. Hurley and the Huskies have won two straight national titles and will be looking to become just the second team ever to win three in a row. Connecticut is the +1000 favorite to win it all next year.

Euros and Copa America semis start today — The international tournaments for soccer have been a treat, but they're winding down, as the semifinals begin today for both the Euros 2024 and the Copa America. YB's soccer expert Alyssa Clang has you covered for the best ways to bet for today's two games, Spain vs. France and Argentina vs. Canada. Make sure you check out the detailed preview, you'll walk away a smarter soccer bettor today.

Tiger Woods turns down opportunity to be Ryder Cup captain in 2025 — The U.S. Ryder Cup performance last season was a disaster, and the hope is that next year's team steps up. Tiger Woods had a chance to captain the group ahead of the 2025 matchup at Bethpage Black in New York, but has opted instead to keep his focus on the PGA Tour and LIV Golf merger. The presumptive next man up appears to be Keegan Bradley, who was left off last year's Ryder Cup team but has past success as part of the team.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

We've got a solid recipe for an over at Fenway tonight. The weather forecast projects a 23% boost to runs, the highest on the slate, and both starters have an ERA north of 4.30. We'll follow those numbers and grab over 10 in this one.
Tuesday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Athletics
+1.5 (-109) +175 > 10 (-115)
Red Sox
-1.5 (-104) -200 < 10 (-110)
2 Masataka Yoshida over 1.5 total bases 

The Boston humidity has provided us an expected boost in extra-base hits, a 32% projected increase in all. Off that, Yoshida seems to be an interesting choice here to exceed this total bases line. He's over this line in five of his last seven at home, and hits righties far better. We like backing him here at this price.

Latest Odds:  +100
3 Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases 

De La Cruz loves to face off against Colorado, going over this line in six straight meetings, logging a hit in seven straight. The Cincinnati weather is suggesting a boost to hits across the board, so we'll follow De La Cruz's history here at a great price.

Latest Odds:  +125
4 Twins-White Sox under 0.5 runs in first inning 

Chicago's Erick Fedde has hit the NRFI in eight of his last 10 starts, while Minnesota's Bailey Ober is 55-19 to this bet for his career. The White Sox score a run at the third-lowest frequency in the first inning, so we'll gladly fade the opening frame in this one tonight.

Latest Odds:  -130
5 Minnesota Lynx @ Los Angeles Sparks

This game should go to the Lynx, as they've been one of the best teams in the league all season long. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 1-9 in their last 10 games and owners of the second-lowest net-rating in the league during that stretch. Trust in Minnesota and back them at -3.5 tonight.
Tuesday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Lynx
-3.5 (-115) -185 > 157.5 (-110)
Sparks
+4.5 (-110) +170 < 157.5 (-112)

Betting News & Notes

MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Tue. 7/9 

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MLB strikeout props for Tue. 7/9: Fading Blake Snell is the way to go

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NFL futures: Betting on which teams lead the league in points scored

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WNBA best bets: Lynx vs. Sparks odds, picks, predictions for Tue. 7/9

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