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July 11, 2024: MLB: Pounce on these plus-money props

We're feeling a bit frisky on this fine Thursday afternoon, so we're interested in attacking a few plus-money props in MLB based on some friendly matchups.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB: Pounce on these plus-money props

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

We're feeling a bit frisky on this fine Thursday afternoon, so we're interested in attacking a few plus-money props in MLB based on some friendly matchups. Let's cash!

A plus-money prop party for MLB Thursday

Tanner Houck 9+ strikeouts (+450 FanDuel)

It's never a bad idea to fade the Oakland Athletics, especially when it comes to strikeout props. The A's have the highest whiff rate (29.1 percent), the lowest chase contact rate (49.0 percent) and the second-lowest zone contact rate (79.1 percent) in MLB this season. They also have the third-highest strikeout rate against righties over the last week (28.3 percent).

Houck hasn't been racking up a ton of strikeouts of late, but he's recorded at least nine Ks four times this year. He struck out a season-high 10 batters in his lone start against Oakland back in April, and he has a whopping 47.1 percent K rate against current Athletics hitters. 

Heliot Ramos to record 2+ hits (+220 FD)

Ramos is on an absolute tear at the plate right now. The San Francisco Giants outfielder is batting .390 and slugging .683 over his last 46 plate appearances, and he's recorded multiple hits in six of his last 10 games. He couldn't ask for a better matchup to stay hot. 

Toronto Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman loves to challenge hitters with his fastball. The right-hander throws his 4-seam fastball 53.0 percent of the time, which is one of the highest rates among qualified pitchers. That's great news for Ramos, who's batting .344 with a .690 xSLG, a .461 xwOBA and a 71.8 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season. 


In the news ...

Anthony Edwards leads Team USA over Team Canada in first Olympic tune-up — Team USA's Olympic men's basketball team took down Team Canada, 86-72, on Wednesday night in its first exhibition leading up to the Paris games. Edwards paced the Americans with 13 points off the bench, while Steph Curry added 12 points and Anthony Davis chipped in 10 points and 11 rebounds. Team Canada (+1100) is the second favorite behind Team USA (-470) to win the gold medal, so the Americans might be unbeatable after a few more weeks of building chemistry. 

Gregg Berhalter out as USMNT manager after Copa America disaster — United States men's national team fans were calling for Berhalter's job after the team flamed out in the group stage at the 2024 Copa America, and they quickly got their wish. The U.S. Soccer Federation announced on Wednesday that Berhalter has been relieved of his duties. The goal is to replace him in time for USMNT's September friendlies. Jurgen Klopp, Thierry Henry, Marcelo Bielsa and Mauricio Pochettino are a few names involved in early speculation. 

Jontay Porter pleads guilty to wire fraud conspiracy — Former NBA player Jontay Porter pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud on Wednesday and was released on $250,000 bond. He will be sentenced on Dec. 18. Porter was banned from the NBA in April for violating the league's gambling rules. The former Toronto Raptor pulled himself out of games early so that his unders on player props would hit. Porter is facing up to 20 years in prison. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Jordan Hicks under 16.5 outs recorded 

This line is simply too high. Hicks has gone under this number in 12 straight starts and 15 of his 18 starts this season. He's already over his career-high in innings pitched, and he's starting to run out of gas. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most patient lineups in MLB, so they'll make Hicks work for every out. 

Latest Odds:  -140
2 Yandy Diaz over 1.5 total bases 


This is an ideal setup for Diaz to have a big game at the plate. In 31 career plate appearances against Nestor Cortes, Diaz is batting .400 and slugging .833 with four doubles and three home runs. He's also batting .538 and slugging 1.000 against lefties over the last 20 days. 

Latest Odds:  -110
3 Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty

The Sky have enjoyed a friendly schedule to this point, so this will be their first test on the second night of a back-to-back. New York, on the other hand, has already played two back-to-backs. The Liberty won both second-nighters and won the most recent one by 21. Give us the Liberty -9.5. 
Thursday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Sky
+10 (-110) +420 > 166.5 (-110)
Liberty
-9.5 (-110) -550 < 166.5 (-105)
4 Houston Astros team total over 4.5

Miami Marlins starter Roddery Munoz ranks in the third percentile in xERA (6.05) and the first percentile in barrel rate (13.1 percent) among qualified pitchers. The Astros have the fourth-highest batting average (.276) and the fifth-highest wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, so they should be able to jump on Munoz early and light up the scoreboard.  

Latest Odds:  -120
5 Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

In 103 combined plate appearances against Luis Castillo, current Angels hitters have a .199 xBA and a .319 xwOBA. Los Angeles is starting Jack Kochanowicz in his MLB debut, but this is a great matchup against a Mariners lineup batting just .191 with a wRC+ of 81 against righties this month. We'll take the first five innings under 4.5. 
Thursday, 9:38 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mariners
-1.5 (+100) -165 > 8.5 (-114)
Angels
+1.5 (-115) +148 < 8.5 (-102)

Betting News & Notes

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2024 Olympic men's basketball odds: Team USA soars after beating Canada

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WNBA best bets: Expert picks for Sky vs. Liberty on Thu. 7/11 

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