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July 12, 2024: NFL futures: These are the long-odd props you're looking for

While some look at this time of year as the downtime in sports, there are some high-quality events you should know about this weekend.  

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NFL futures: These are the long-odds props you're looking for

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

While some look at this time of year as the downtime in sports, there are some high-quality events you should know about this weekend. We've got the women's Wimbledon finals on Saturday, the men's final on Sunday, and the finals for both the Euros (Spain vs. England) and Copa America (Argentina vs. Colombia). We have all of that below the fold, plus MLB looks down in Quick Picks.

With all that established, it may seem silly we're about to talk NFL, but we've stumbled on some longer-odds futures we'd like to discuss to take us into the weekend.

Pocketing a pair of long-odds NFL prop futures

Ezekiel Elliott to lead NFL in Rushing Touchdowns (+6000 FanDuel)

This is an interesting one to us. By all accounts, the market is valuing the Dallas Cowboys as a team quite favorably, one of the favorites to come out of the NFC. In such a world, their offense is likely to be among the league's best, and when that's the case, there's plenty of touchdowns scored.

The Cowboys hopped in a time machine this offseason and made Ezekiel Elliott one of their key free-agent signings to take on lead RB duties, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him specialize in short yardage and red zone situations.

Should the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb combo continue to be among the NFL's best, the Cowboys likely find themselves near the goal line plenty. There's easily a path here for Zeke to be one of the red-zone volume leaders this season, and given that, we don't hate a sprinkle on him at 60-1 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns.

Dalton Kincaid to lead NFL in Receiving Touchdowns (+10000 DraftKings)

This is admittedly an outrageous bet to place at 100-1, but it sure feels worth a couple bucks when you put just a bit of thought into it.

Listen, Dalton Kincaid has one of the best quarterbacks in the league throwing to him in Josh Allen, and he's on a Buffalo offense that lost their most targeted pass-catchers in Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Sure, some other WRs may pick up the slack, but there's an enticing option here that it's Kincaid who becomes the biggest beneficiary of all the volume up for grabs.

Kincaid was a first-round pick of the Bills last April, and it was because of his ability as a dynamic, pass-catching threat out of the tight end position. Kincaid caught 5+ balls in all five games without Dawson Knox last year, catching a pair of touchdowns.

Knox or not, Kincaid could work more as a big slot, and he could easily be Allen's most trusted option this fall.

There are crazier bets to make, if you ask us.


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In the news ...

Euros and Copa America finals this Sunday — Get prepped now for a weekend full of championship soccer, as we have both the Euro and Copa America finals set for Sunday. The headlining match has to be in the Euro 2024 tournament as Spain faces off against England, and we have one of the sharpest soccer minds on the case in Alyssa Clang, breaking down all the action here. Sunday night will see Argentina and Colombia squaring off for the Copa America title, with Lionel Messi and Argentina the -175 favorites to continue flexing their international dominance.

Wimbledon wraps up this weekend — We'll have a pair of new Wimbledon champs by weekend's end. In Friday's first men's semifinal, Carlos Alcaraz defeated Daniil Medvedev in four sets, and will play either Novak Djokovic or Lorenzo Musetti in the Gentlemen's Final on Sunday. The women's bracket has the final on Saturday, with Barbora Krejcikova the -145 favorite over Jasmine Paolini (+115).  

Paul Skenes with another terrific outing all but stamps his Rookie of the Year campaign — The dominance of Pittsburgh Pirates rookie pitcher Paul Skenes just keeps on coming. Skenes threw seven no-hit innings on Thursday, striking out 11. He's all but secured Rookie of the Year in the NL, as his odds currently sit at -700. Now eyes turn to the Cy Young market, where Skenes is flying up the board, currently 11-1 to win the award, the fourth-best odds. That's an uphill climb given his late start on the season, but he's got two more months to keep racking up big strikeout outings, and his ERA is currently at an astounding 1.90. Zack Wheeler is the current NL Cy Young favorite, owning a 2.70 ERA and 126 Ks.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Byron Buxton over 1.5 total bases 

Buxton is absolutely rolling for Minnesota. He's logged 2+ total bases in seven straight games and 13 of his last 15, and that seems likely to continue tonight. The Giants are trotting out a lefty to begin tonight, and Buxton is hitting .317 against LHP this year. Load up the Twins slugger with confidence.

Latest Odds:  +120
2 Trea Turner over 1.5 total bases 

Turner is humming for the Phillies right now, recording 2+ hits in three straight games and seven of his last 10. In that span, he's averaging 3.7 total bases per game, a stretch we will gladly get behind. Turner is hitting .341 against LHP this season.

Latest Odds:  -135
3 Jose Altuve over 0.5 hits 

Toss an Altuve hit into a parlay today, as it seems like a tremendous bet. He has a hit in 12 of his last 14, averaging 1.5 hits per game in that span. In 44 plate appearances against Andrew Heaney, Altuve is hitting .317, a rich history we can get behind.

Latest Odds:  -290 
4 Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever

We're liking the Fever here at home, they've been playing much better basketball of late, winners of six of their last 10, which includes a home win over Phoenix just two weeks ago. We'll back the home dogs at +3 here.
Friday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mercury
-2.5 (-112) -142 > 175 (-114)
Fever
+3 (-110) +130 < 175 (-112)
5 Las Vegas Aces @ Atlanta Dream

This is an easy one, we have to back the Aces, who are playing like the best team in the league over the last 10 games, owners of the WNBA's best net-rating at +11.3. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 2-8 in their last 10 with a -8.6 net-rating to boot. Load up Las Vegas -14.5 later tonight.
Friday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Aces
-14.5 (-110) -1111 > 168.5 (-110)
Dream
+14.5 (-110) +800 < 168.5 (-114)

Betting News & Notes

MLB Opening Pitch: McGrath's expert picks, odds, preview for Fri. 7/12

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Euro 2024 best bets: How to bet Spain vs. England in Sunday's final 

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MLB best bets: Odds, picks, predictions for Fri. 7/12

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Copa America best bets: How to bet Colombia vs. Argentina in Sunday's final 

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WNBA best bets: Action Network expert picks for Fri. 7/12

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MLB strikeout props for Fri. 7/12: Randy is dandy ... for a fade

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NFL futures: Two teams we'll back to be the No. 1 seed

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