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July 17, 2024: For British Open value, look to the weather report

The 2024 British Open begins bright and early Thursday morning. Due to the wet and windy conditions expected at Royal Troon, it's possible to predict how specific players will perform in the first round based on the weather forecast.

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For British Open value, look to the weather report

Rickie Fowler, who tees off at 1:26 p.m., will be hitting the toughest stretch at Royal Troon while the wind is blowing against him with gusts up to 30 mph. Jack Gruber-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 British Open begins bright and early Thursday morning. Due to the wet and windy conditions expected at Royal Troon Golf Club, it's possible to predict how specific players will perform in the first round based on the weather forecast. Let's use the Scotland weather to our advantage and target a two-pack of Round 1 bets for The Open. 

Riding the Scotland winds to winning Round 1 bets

Rickie Fowler Round 1 score over 72.5 (-115 FanDuel)

Betting round props for the British Open is just as much about reading the weather as it is about the players themselves. For the first round on Thursday, the strongest winds are projected to come between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. local time. That means Rickie Fowler, who tees off at 1:26 p.m., will be hitting the toughest stretch at Royal Troon while the wind is blowing against him with gusts up to 30 mph. 

These are going to be tough scoring conditions for anyone teeing off around that time, especially if they aren't in form. Fowler missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open last week while ranking dead last in the field in strokes gained on approach. It's hard to imagine him turning that around when he's forced to hit multiple iron shots into the teeth of the strongest wind of the day. 

Sungjae Im Round 1 score under 71.5 (+105 FD)

Whereas Fowler ended up in the worst section of Thursday's draw, Im caught a break with his 7:52 a.m. tee time. The wind looks to be much more benign in the morning, so the South Korean will be playing the tough back 9 during the best scoring conditions of the day. 

Im also enters the British Open in great form, as he's recorded three straight top-12 finishes while gaining strokes on approach and from putting in all three starts. He shot 63-67-67-69 at The Renaissance Club last week en route to a T4 finish, and he finished T20 at The Open last year. We expect him to get off to a strong start at Royal Troon. 


In the news ...

AL beats NL yet again as Jarren Duran steals All-Star Game MVP — The American League's dominance in the MLB All-Star Game continues. The AL defeated the NL, 5-3, on Tuesday night to improve to 20-4 in the ASG since 2000. On a night when Shohei Ohtani blasted a three-run home run and Juan Soto recorded two RBIs, it was Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran who swept in and won the MVP award thanks to a game-winning two-run homer in the bottom of the fifth inning. Duran was as high as 50-1 to win MVP.

Brandon Aiyuk requests a trade from the 49ers — The Aiyuk saga in San Francisco took another turn on Tuesday, as the star wide receiver reportedly requested a trade, per Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. The 49ers have no intention of trading Aiyuk, but they've also been reluctant to offer him a big-money contract extension this offseason. The 26-year-old is about to enter the fifth and final year of his rookie deal, but he wants a long-term commitment before suiting up for the reigning NFL champs. The 49ers are co-favorites with the Kansas City Chiefs at +600 to win the Super Bowl in 2025.

No. 2 pick Alexandre Sarr has disastrous 0-of-15 shooting night in NBA Summer League — Washington Wizards fans covered their eyes on Tuesday night while Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, went scoreless on 0-of-15 shooting from the field against the Portland Trail Blazers in the Las Vegas Summer League. Sarr is now shooting only 19.5 percent from the field in summer league while averaging just 6.7 points per game. The Frenchman clearly has some developing to do on the offensive end, but he's only +1000 to win Rookie of the Year. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Tyler Kolek to score 10+ points

Kolek has been one of the most effective playmakers in the NBA Summer League with 7.0 assists per game, but he's shooting just 35.7 percent from the floor and 14.3 percent from three. We expect him to be aggressive against the Sacramento Kings to snap out of his shooting slump. 

Latest Odds:  -108
2 Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

If you haven't been paying attention to the NBA Summer League, the Lakers have been the worst team in Las Vegas. Los Angeles is 0-4 with an average losing margin of 15.3 points, so we'll gladly fade them against No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher and the Hawks. We'll take Atlanta -3.5. 

Latest Odds:  -110
3 Caitlin Clark over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists

Clark is poised to explode on Wednesday night, as the Dallas Wings have the worst defensive rating in the WNBA. Dallas also plays at the third-fastest pace in the league, which should create more shot attempts, potential assists and rebound chances for Clark.  

Latest Odds:  -106
4 Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings

This pick falls under the same theme as our Clark prop. The Fever and Wings are the two most profitable over teams in the WNBA this season, going a combined 32-17 to the over so far. Dallas and Indiana are also the two worst teams in the league in terms of defensive rating, so we'll take the over 178.5. 
Wednesday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Fever
-3.5 (-112) -175 > 178.5 (-110)
Wings
+4 (-110) +158 < 178.5 (-108)

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