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July 19, 2024: Hooray! Baseball's back (and so is baseball betting)

The All-Star break is officially over, putting an end to one of the uneventful sports betting weeks of the entire year. We've never been more excited to see a full slate of MLB games on the schedule.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Hooray! Baseball's back (and so is baseball betting)

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown. Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The All-Star break is officially over, putting an end to one of the more uneventful sports betting weeks of the entire year. We got creative with the WNBA and NBA Summer League in the meantime, but we've never been more excited to see a full slate of MLB games on the schedule.

To celebrate baseball's return, let's target our two favorite plus-money prop bets for Friday's MLB slate. 

Throwing a prop bet party for MLB's return

Elly De La Cruz over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110 DraftKings)

This is a great setup for De La Cruz to have a monster day at the plate. Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.29) and xBA (.316), the second percentile in hard-hit rate (48.3 percent) and the 16th percentile in barrel rate (9.8 percent).

In his short career against Corbin, De La Cruz is 5-8 (.625) with a home run. The Cincinnati Reds slugger is also batting .321 and slugging .607 against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. De La Cruz should be a regular on the base paths in this matchup, and he's the best in the game at generating runs with his legs. 

Hunter Brown 9+ strikeouts (+280 FanDuel)

Fading the Seattle Mariners with strikeout props has been one of our favorite activities this season. The Mariners rank dead last in MLB in zone contact rate, 27th in chase contact rate and 28th in whiff rate. Seattle also has the highest strikeout rate against righties this month (31.8 percent). 

Brown has recorded nine strikeouts in two starts this year, and one just happened to come against Seattle last month. This is a decent spot for an alternate line play. 


In the news ...

Shane Lowry leads British Open after second round; Tiger Woods misses cut — The blustery conditions at Royal Troon Golf Club are tormenting some of the top players in the world, but not Lowry. The Irishman fired a 2-under 69 on Friday to move to 7 under par and overtake the outright lead at the British Open. The second round isn't over yet, but Lowry should hold onto the lead with the wind picking up in the afternoon. Woods didn't handle the weather as well, as he shot +14 through two rounds to miss the cut. Lowry is the live betting favorite to win the British Open at +200. 

Russell Westbrook expected to join Nuggets after sign-and-trade — The Denver Nuggets are adding a former MVP to the fold in their quest to return to the NBA Finals. On Thursday, the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz agreed to a sign-and-trade deal involving Westbrook, and the veteran point guard is reportedly expected to sign with Denver after Utah waives him and buys out the remainder of his contract. The Nuggets are +850 to win the NBA championship in 2025. 

Bronny James puts up another strong performance in NBA Summer League — Don't look now, but James is starting to figure out the NBA Summer League. The second-round pick recorded his second strong performance in a row on Thursday night with 13 points on 5-of-10 shooting and 1-of-3 from three in a 93-89 win against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Los Angeles Lakers will be thrilled with James's improvement in Las Vegas after a brutal start to his pro career. Despite his improved play, James has dropped back to +30000 to win Rookie of the Year. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

The Phillies should feast on Martin Perez in this matchup, as the left-hander has given up 24 hits and 12 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings of work. On the other side, current Pirates hitters have just a .195 xBA and a .270 xwOBA against Aaron Nola. We'll take the Phillies -1 with a huge pitching advantage.
Friday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Phillies
-1.5 (+104) -166 > 8 (-115)
Pirates
+1.5 (-115) +145 < 8 (-115)
2 Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

The Reds should be bigger favorites in this matchup. Current Cincinnati hitters are batting .446 with a .445 xwOBA and a .623 xSLG in 62 plate appearances against Corbin, and Frankie Montas has been lights out on the road this season. Give us the Reds moneyline.
Friday, 6:45 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Reds
-1 (+102) -125 > 9 (-118)
Nationals
+1.5 (-152) +110 < 9 (-133)
3 Juan Soto over 0.5 runs scored

This is a major misprice by DraftKings, as Soto is -220 on FanDuel to score a run on Friday night. The New York Yankees star is batting .452 with a .514 on-base percentage in his career against Zach Eflin, and we love the discount we're getting here. 

Latest Odds:  -125 
4 Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

The Astros are a team we like to make a run in the second half, and that starts Friday. Brown is on fire with one earned run or fewer in five of his last seven starts, and Seattle ranks dead last in MLB in batting average and OPS against righties this month. Give us the 'Stros moneyline.
Friday, 10:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Astros
+1.5 (-222) +100 > 7 (-115)
Mariners
+1.5 (-198) -109 < 7 (-133)
5 Collin Morikawa top-10 finish

Let's throw in a live British Open bet to sweat this weekend. Morikawa got off to a slow start at Royal Troon, but he closed with three birdies on the toughest stretch of the golf course to shoot a 1-under 70 in the second round and get inside the top 20. We like him to make a move on Saturday and finish strong.

Latest Odds:  +105

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