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July 25, 2024: MLB best bets: A great day for K's

While the Thursday is always a bit light in MLB, there's still more than enough to parse through, especially on the afternoon slate.  

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB best bets: A great day for K's 

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Max Scherzer. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

While Thursday is always a bit light in MLB, there's still more than enough to parse through, especially on the afternoon slate. These games get going in just a few hours, so make sure you get to it for a simple bankroll builder on the bump. 

We say K: Bring on the afternoon fans

Max Scherzer has started finding his groove a bit of late, twice ending up with 6+ strikeouts over his last three starts. He's certainly not had as good of a year as we remember him routinely having, but a matchup with the slumping White Sox is just what the doctor ordered.

Over the last 30 days, Chicago is fanning at the third-highest rate against RHP, and no team hits righties worse on the season (or the last month) than the White Sox. That should give Scherzer the leash he needs to hit the mark on his Ks today, and it helps that the last time he saw Chicago, he piled up nine strikeouts.

Chris Bassitt has been quite steady down at the 5+ Ks number, reaching the number in eight of his last 10 starts, averaging 5.7 Ks/game. He's also covered this number in three straight starts against Tampa Bay. The Rays are a friendly foe for a righty trying to rack up some strikeouts, fanning at the seventh-highest rate across the last month. We like Bassitt to put on a solid outing this afternoon for Toronto.

Betting: Max Scherzer 6+ Ks & Chris Bassitt 5+ Ks (+115 FanDuel)


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In the news ...

Knicks extend head coach Tom Thibodeau — The New York Knicks have had an active summer, adding key pieces and extending others, and next in line is their coach. New York has inked head coach Tom Thibodeau to a new three-year contract that will take him through the 2028 season. "Thibs" and the Knicks have reached the second round in two straight years, and expectations are high heading into the 2024-25 season with the core of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and OG Anunoby, and New York is currently +450 to win the Eastern Conference.

Olympics soccer off and running — While the Opening Ceremonies for this year's Olympics are Friday, the games are in full swing, headlined by all 16 participating soccer teams already bagging a game. France is the current favorite to win gold at home at +160, who beat the USMNT 3-0 in a game that was actually encouraging for the young U-23 American squad. Spain, who beat Uzbekistan in a close contest, are the second favorites at +200, followed by Argentina (+450) and Morocco (+650) who tied 2-2 in their first match, which had a crazy finish.

Mounting concern that Christian Yelich could be out for season — Milwaukee Brewers star Christian Yelich left Wednesday's game in the sixth inning due to a back injury, and has been placed on the 10-day injured list. There are reports suggesting this back injury could be serious enough to force Yelich out for the rest of the season. Yelich is currently leading the National League in batting average (.315) and on-base percentage (.406), and his absence would be a serious blow to a Milwaukee team sitting atop the NL Central. The Brewers are currently -550 to win the division, but there may be some value in looking to St. Louis (+700) or Pittsburgh (+2000), who are six and seven games back respectively.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. 

Quick Picks

1 Francisco Lindor over 1.5 total bases 

The Mets' Lindor is rolling, logging a hit in nine straight games. He's turned a corner the last few games in the total bases market, piling up 19 bases in his last three, a streak we can get behind. Lindor looks all the better when you see that he's hitting .419 off Chris Sale in 32 plate appearances. That's a rich sample size.

Latest Odds:  +135
2 Randy Arozarena over 1.5 total bases 

Tampa's Arozarena has nine hits in his last eight games and 2+ total bases in four of his last six. He seems poised to build on his strong hitting of late when you consider his .429 average off the day's starter Chris Bassitt in 14 plate appearances.

Latest Odds:  +140
3 Chris Sale over 7.5 Ks 


Atlanta's Sale is over this number in four of his last five and seven of his last 10, and now he gets a Mets team that is striking out at the sixth-highest rate against LHP over the last month. Five straight lefties have covered their strikeout prop against the Mets, we'll back one of baseball's best strikeout pitchers today to do the same.

Latest Odds:  -115 
4 Toronto-Tampa Bay under 0.5 runs in the first inning 

As far as NRFIs go, this seems to be the most enticing on today's board. Blue Jays starter Bassitt is 113-33 to the NRFI since 2019, and Taj Bradley is 27-7 to this prop since he became a starter. Factor in that Toronto scores a run in the first inning at the fourth-lowest frequency, and it all adds up to to a quiet opening frame.

Latest Odds:  -145

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