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July 30, 2024: Dinger Tuesday: Look for a bomb from Bohm

Happy Dinger Tuesday to all who celebrate. The baseball gods have blessed us with multiple hitter-friendly weather games on the MLB slate, and we're looking to take advantage with a handful of home run props. 

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Dinger Tuesday: Look for a bomb from Bohm

Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Dinger Tuesday to all who celebrate. The baseball gods have blessed us with multiple hitter-friendly weather games on the MLB slate, and we're looking to take advantage with a handful of home run props. 

Let's get down to business. 

Taking advantage of dinger-friendly weather

Cubs at Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET

It's going to be hot and humid in Cincinnati with the wind projected to blow out to center field, creating a whopping 39 percent boost to home runs, per Ballpark Pal. 

Best bet: Tyler Stephenson (+480 FanDuel)

Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele does a great job at limiting home runs, but Stephenson is one hitter who can jump on a mistake. In 17 career plate appearances against Steele, Stephenson is batting .563 and slugging .875 with a homer and two doubles. The Cincinnati Reds catcher has also hit seven of his 11 home runs this season at home. 

Honorable mention: Cody Bellinger (+520 FD)

The Reds haven't announced a starting pitcher yet, but Bellinger can take advantage of these hitter-friendly conditions with his career-high 34.9 percent fly-ball rate. 

Yankees at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

High humidity combined and a strong wind blowing out to left-center field are creating a 36 percent boost to home runs at Citizens Bank Park.

Best bet: Alec Bohm (+600 FD)

Bohm hasn't gone yard since making the semifinals in the Home Run Derby, but he's still swinging the bat well. The Philadelphia Phillies third baseman has a team-high 53.8 percent hard-hit rate since the All-Star break. Gerrit Cole is giving up a 10.7 percent barrel rate because he throws a high percentage of fastballs, and Bohm is batting .333 with a .530 slugging percentage against fastballs this year.  

Honorable mention: Giancarlo Stanton (+295 DraftKings)

Stanton is batting .313 with two dingers and a double in his career against Aaron Nola. That makes sense considering Nola's most used pitch is his curveball, and Stanton is slugging a ridiculous 1.059 against curveballs this year. We love Stanton in this matchup, but his price is too low to warrant a best bet. 


In the news ...

USA women's basketball dominates, Coco Gauff upset at Paris Olympics — The United States women's basketball team began its gold medal quest with a dominant 102-76 victory against Japan. WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson led the way with 24 points and 13 rebounds, and Breanna Stewart was right behind with 22 points. Team USA is -23.5 against Belgium on Thursday. In the women's tennis singles competition, Gauff suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of Croatia's Donna Vekic 7-6, 6-2.  

Braves, Dodgers, Astros get busy ahead of MLB trade deadline — It's hard to keep up with all the deals flying in from MLB insiders ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline. The Atlanta Braves brought back an old friend by trading for 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler. The Los Angeles Dodgers killed two birds with one stone by landing Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech in a three-team trade with the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago White Sox. In the American League, the Houston Astros bolstered their rotation by adding Yusei Kikuchi, and the Kansas City Royals made a deal for Michael Lorenzen. Teams still have until 6 p.m. ET to make trades. 

Aaron Judge hits two more home runs to strengthen grip on AL MVP race — Judge was already a massive favorite to win AL MVP, but his odds dipped even more after crushing two homers against the Philadelphia Phillies in a 14-4 victory for the New York Yankees. The Bronx bomber leads all AL hitters in home runs (39), RBIs (99) and OPS (1.142), and he's now -1000 to win the MVP award.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

The Yankees and Phillies combined to score 18 runs on Monday night, and we're expecting another high-scoring game with the wind projected to blow strongly out to left-center field. Both Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola have been giving up a ton of barrels lately, so don't be scared of the big names on the mound. Take the over 9.5. 
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Yankees
+1.5 (-200) +100 > 9.5 (-103)
Phillies
+1.5 (-178) -112 < 9.5 (-110)
2 Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

Speaking of hitter-friendly weather games, the wind is projected to blow strongly out to left field with gusts up to 30 mph at Fenway Park. These are two of the hottest lineups in MLB, and both bullpens are decimated heading into this matchup. Give us the over 10. 
Tuesday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mariners
-1 (+108) -114 > 10 (-120)
Red Sox
+1.5 (-154) +100 < 10 (-115)
3 J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs 

Realmuto has been ice cold since returning from the injured list, but this is the perfect matchup to help him out of his funk. In 20 career at-bats against Cole, Realmuto is batting .550 with 10 singles and a home run. 

Latest Odds:  -110
4 Michael Wacha under 2.5 earned runs allowed

There's nothing Wacha loves more than facing the Chicago White Sox. In 105 combined plate appearances against Wacha, current White Sox hitters are batting just .141 with a .224 xwOBA and a .271 xSLG. Chicago also might trade more of its top hitters before this game even starts.  

Latest Odds:  -135

5 Nikola Jokic over 8.5 rebounds

Serbia is taking on Puerto Rico on Wednesday morning, and Jokic should feast on the glass in this matchup. Puerto Rico got out-rebounded by South Sudan, 55-37, in Game 1 because it has only one player on its roster taller than 6-foot-8. 

Latest Odds:  -140

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