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August 05, 2024: MLB best bets: Hey fam, we like Pham to lead this +795 parlay

Happy Monday, sports bettors. The 2024 Olympics continue to roll on from Paris, but we have our eyes on a few juicy hitter-pitcher matchups for Monday night's MLB slate.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB best bets: Hey fam, we like Pham to lead this +795 parlay

St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Tommy Pham. Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Monday, sports bettors. The 2024 Olympics continue to roll on from Paris, but we have our eyes on a few juicy hitter-pitcher matchups for Monday night's MLB slate. Let's target a trio of red-hot batters and craft a bankroll-building parlay to kick off the week. 

Hits + runs + RBIs = $

Leg 1: Tommy Pham over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Mets at Cardinals, 5:15 p.m. ET

No one was happier at the MLB trade deadline than Pham, who left the black hole known as the Chicago White Sox to join the St. Louis Cardinals. In six games with his new squad, Pham is batting .381 and slugging .714 with four runs and a team-leading seven RBIs. 

The outfielder will be salivating ahead of this matchup, as he's batting .500 with two home runs and two doubles in 12 career at-bats against New York Mets starter Sean Manaea. It also looks like ideal hitting conditions at Busch Stadium with scorching hot temperatures and a helping wind blowing out to left field. 

Leg 2: Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Reds at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

Roddery Munoz is one of our absolute favorite starters to fade in 2024. The Miami Marlins right-hander ranks in the first percentile xERA and barrel rate this season, and he's given up eight earned runs and four homers over his last two starts. 

De La Cruz is crushing righties over the last 15 days, batting .440 and slugging .720 with a 234 wRC+ in that span. His elite barrel rate and bat speed provide the perfect counterpunch against Munoz. 

Leg 3: Tyler Fitzgerald over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Giants at Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

Fitzgerald has morphed into prime Barry Bonds since the All-Star break. The San Francisco Giants slugger is batting .327 and slugging .808 with a team-leading seven home runs, 13 RBIs and 12 runs scored over the last 15 days. He's batting .368 and slugging .842 against lefties in that span, and there's no better lefty to face than Patrick Corbin.

Corbin ranks in the first percentile in xBA and the fourth percentile in xERA this season. Fitzgerald faced the Washington Nationals southpaw earlier this year, and he went 3-3 with a double and two singles against him. 

Put it all together, and you get a +795 parlay on DraftKings. Let's cash!


In the news ...

Noah Lyles wins photo finish in dramatic men's 100-meter final — The "world's fastest man" title still belongs to Lyles, but just barely. The American sprinter edged out Jamaica's Kishane Thompson by 0.005 seconds in the 100-meter final to win the gold medal for Team USA. Lyles will also compete in the men's 200m race this week, where he's a -460 favorite to win gold. 

Scottie Scheffler shoots final-round 62 to win gold medal in men's golf — The Olympic men's golf competition came down to the wire, but it was Scheffler who triumphed in the end as he typically does. The World No. 1 fired a bogey-free 62 on Sunday to erase a four-stroke deficit and win the gold medal. Great Britain's Tommy Fleetwood took home silver, while Japan's Hideki Matsuyama won bronze. Team USA is now -480 to lead the Paris Olympics in gold medals. 

White Sox continue their push toward history with 20th straight loss — The Chicago White Sox are looking to make history this week, but not the kind you want to be remembered for. On Sunday, the White Sox dropped another game to the Minnesota Twins to push their losing streak to 20 games. One more loss and Chicago will tie the American League record set by the 1988 Baltimore Orioles. The MLB record for most consecutive losses is 23 by the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. The White Sox are +150 against the Oakland Athletics Monday night. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

This is a fade of Marlins starter Roddery Munoz. The right-hander ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.14) and barrel rate (13.8 percent) this season, and he's given up eight earned runs and four homers in his last 10 innings of work. Give us the Reds on the moneyline. 
Monday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Reds
-1 (-112) -141 > 8 (-130)
Marlins
+1.5 (-135) +120 < 8 (-115)
2 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

This is a scary bet to place because Kyle Hendricks and David Festa both have ERAs north of 6.8, but these are ideal conditions for an under. It's going to be a bit chilly in Chicago with the wind projected to blow strongly in from center field. Fly balls won't carry very far on Monday night, so we'll take the under 7.5.
Monday, 8:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Twins
-1 (+110) -120 > 7.5 (-133)
Cubs
+1.5 (-160) +105 < 7.5 (-105)
3 Andrew Heaney under 15.5 outs recorded 

Heaney hasn't been a consistent innings-eater this season. The left-hander has gone under this line in four straight and 13 of his 21 starts in 2024. He's also gone under this line in all three of his starts against the Houston Astros. 

Latest Odds:  +100
4 Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases 

We're not done fading Heaney just yet. In 28 career plate appearances against the southpaw, Alvarez is batting .524 and slugging .714 with a home run and a double. The slugging hasn't been there for Alvarez of late, but this is a perfect matchup for him to snap out of his funk. 

Latest Odds:  +100
5 James Paxton under 1.5 walks 

Paxton has struggled with his command this season, but he should be able to limit his walks against an aggressive Kansas City Royals lineup. The Royals have the fourth-lowest walk rate against lefties over the last 10 days (4.6 percent), and Paxton has a tiny 1.9 percent walk rate against current KC hitters.

Latest Odds:  +100

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