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August 14, 2024: Delivering some FRL bets for FedEx St. Jude Championship

With Round 1 getting underway on Thursday morning, let's gun for a juicy payout with a short first-round leader card for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

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Delivering some FRL bets for FedEx St. Jude Championship

Ludvig Aberg has been a first-round monster all season and should get off to a hot start. Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Sports

The FedEx Cup Playoffs get started this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship from TPC Southwind, as the top 70 players in the standings begin the race for the $25 million prize. With Round 1 getting underway on Thursday morning, let's gun for a juicy payout with a short first-round leader card for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

First-round leader fun for the FedEx Cup Playoffs

Ludvig Aberg (+2800 FanDuel)

We're big on Aberg this week, so we might as well double down on him with a FRL bet.

This will be Aberg's first appearance at TPC Southwind, but he fits this golf course perfectly. TPC Southwind demands accuracy off the tee and on approach due to its thick rough and multiple water hazards, and Aberg ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in total driving and ninth in strokes gained on approach. He also ranks sixth in par-4 scoring average, which will be crucial this week because TPC Southwind features 12 par 4s and only two par 5s. 

Aberg has been a first-round monster all season, ranking 12th on Tour in Round 1 scoring average. He should get off to a hot start.

Justin Thomas (+4000 FD)

Thomas is all over the place right now, but volatility is your friend with first-round leader bets. You want to target players who can stack up birdies in a hurry if they get hot with the putter, and JT certainly fits that mold. 

A few weeks ago, Thomas shot an 8-under 62 at the Genesis Scottish Open to take the first-round lead. He shot a 7-under 63 at the Travelers Championship before leaving for Scotland. Most importantly, he has a sparkling track record at TPC Southwind with a win and three top-13 finishes in four starts. Thomas' price is so big because his consistency isn't there right now, but you don't need consistency for one great round of golf. 

Alex Noren (+7000 FD)

Moving to a long shot for our final pick, Noren has been one of the best first-round performers on the PGA Tour this year. The Swede ranks fourth on Tour in Round 1 scoring average, and he's gone 65-69-67 in his last three opening rounds. 

Noren's game plan is always to keep his ball on the short grass because he isn't a bomber, and when he does miss greens, he's one of the best scramblers on Tour, especially out of thick rough. That's ideal for TPC Southwind.


In the news ...

Juan Soto cracks three home runs as Yankees regain AL East lead — The American League East race is going to be a fight to the finish, as the New York Yankees (71-50) currently hold a 0.5-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles (70-50) in the division. The Yankees jumped back into first place with a 4-1 win against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night thanks to Soto's first career three-home run game. New York is -175 to win the AL East, while Baltimore is +135. 

J.J. McCarthy to undergo knee surgery for meniscus tear — Minnesota Vikings fans caught a glimpse of their future over the weekend when McCarthy threw two touchdowns in his preseason debut. The rookie quarterback looked good in his first game as a pro, but he unfortunately suffered a meniscus injury in the process. McCarthy will undergo surgery and be out indefinitely. He could miss anywhere between a few weeks and "many months" (per NFL Network) depending on the severity of the tear. Minnesota is now +1100 to have the fewest regular-season wins this year. 

Brandon Aiyuk reportedly choosing between the 49ers and Steelers — The Aiyuk saga appears to be close to a conclusion, but the star wide receiver will have to choose his path forward. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a deal in place to trade for Aiyuk, but the San Francisco 49ers have also offered the WR a long-term contract. A decision could come at any moment. Aiyuk's receiving yards prop for this season is set at 1000.5. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Chicago Cubs team total over 3.5

Alex Cobb made his first start of the season last week and got smacked around for nine hits and five runs. The right-hander gave up a whopping 63.5 percent hard-hit rate and a .450 xBA in the game, so we're interested in fading him until he shows us something.  

Latest Odds:  -130
2 James Wood over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Wood is batting .386 with a team-leading 12 runs scored and 10 RBIs over the last 15 days, and this is another solid matchup for him. Dean Kremer throws his 4-seam fastball 33 percent of the time, while Wood has a ridiculous 82.6 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year. 

Latest Odds:  +100
3 Davis Martin over 2.5 walks allowed 

Martin has struggled to find the strike zone through three starts. The right-hander is giving up a 13.0 percent walk rate, and now he has to face a New York Yankees lineup with the highest walk rate against righties this season (10.0 percent). 

Latest Odds:  +100
4 Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

Neither of these offenses is lighting it up right now. This is more of a fade of both starting pitchers. Jose Berrios ranks in the ninth percentile in xERA (5.14) this season, while Tyler Anderson has given up a .378 xBA and a .421 xwOBA to current Blue Jays hitters. The wind is also projected to blow straight out to center field at Angel Stadium. Give us the over 8.5.
Wednesday, 9:38 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Blue Jays
+1.5 (-222) -102 > 8.5 (-118)
Angels
+1.5 (-182) -112 < 8.5 (+102)
5 Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

Robbie Ray has been fantastic with his .196 xBA, 31.8 percent hard-hit rate and 28 strikeouts through 20.1 innings of work this season, and the Braves have the highest strikeout rate against lefties over the last month. Atlanta is 0-3 in Grant Holmes's three starts this year, and he's given up 13 hits and eight earned runs in his last 9.2 innings. We'll take the Giants moneyline. 
Wednesday, 9:45 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Braves
+1.5 (-194) +110 > 7.5 (-115)
Giants
+1.5 (-225) -121 < 7.5 (+100)

Betting News & Notes

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