Yardbarker

The Bark Bets Newsletter

August 20, 2024: MLB homer props: Let's take a trip to Dinger City

FanDuel has scratched its Dinger Tuesday promotion (at least for this week), so it looks like we'll have to make them pay with a loaded MLB slate on deck.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
Subscribe  |  Read in Browser

MLB homer props: Let's take a trip to Dinger City

Tampa Bay Rays DH Brandon Lowe (8) and infielder Christopher Morel (24) celebrate after they both scored against Arizona. Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel has scratched its Dinger Tuesday promotion (at least for this week), so it looks like we'll have to make them pay with a loaded MLB slate on deck. For this week's edition, we're looking to fade two starting pitchers who regularly run into barrels due to their high 4-seam fastball rates. You know what they say: The harder the pitcher throws, the farther the ball will go.

Let's target two sluggers who love jumping on fastballs for our own Dinger Tuesday celebration. 

Dinger Tuesday two-pack

Brendan Rodgers (+600 FanDuel)

Washington Nationals left-hander DJ Herz has one of the highest 4-seam fastball rates (55.2 percent) in MLB this season. The 23-year-old averages only 94 mph on his heater, which is why he's given up 10 home runs in 12 starts and ranks in the 13th percentile in barrel rate (10.0 percent).

Rodgers will be salivating looking ahead to this matchup, as the Colorado Rockies second baseman is batting .374 and slugging .571 with a 50.7 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seam fastballs this year. He's also batting .500 with a 1.141 OPS against lefties over the last two weeks.

Brandon Lowe (+320 FD)

These odds are pretty low for a player who's batting only .180 over the last 15 days, but this is a perfect setup for Lowe. Although his recent batting average doesn't reflect it, Lowe is crushing right-handed pitching with a 64.5 percent hard-hit rate in that 15-day span. Now he gets to face Oakland Athletics righty Joey Estes, who gives up a ton of barrels and hard-hit balls due to his 53.5 percent 4-seam fastball rate. Well, Lowe has a .561 xSLG and a 56.1 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year.

The kicker, though, is the strong wind projected to blow out to right-center field at Oakland Coliseum during the game. That's ideal for Lowe, who's hit 15 of his 16 home runs this season to the right side. Ride that wind, Brandon!


In the news ...

Commanders officially name Jayden Daniels starting QB — On Monday, Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn announced that Daniels has won the starting quarterback job. This isn't shocking news considering Daniels has been working with the first-team offense throughout training camp, but now it's official. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is right behind Caleb Williams at +475 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Justin Herbert returns to practice for the first time this month — Herbert was in a walking boot for two weeks after being diagnosed with a plantar fascia injury in his right foot on July 31, but it looks like he'll be ready for Week 1. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback returned to practice on Monday, and head coach Jim Harbaugh said he, "looked great with a capital G." The Chargers are +110 to make the playoffs this season. 

Austin Riley suffers broken hand, expected to miss 6-8 weeks — The Atlanta Braves are fighting to hold onto the final wild-card spot in the National League, but they'll have to do so without one of their best hitters down the stretch. Riley, who ranks third on the team this year in home runs (19) and RBIs (56), suffered a fractured right hand after being struck by a 97-mph fastball on Sunday. He'll miss the rest of the regular season. The Braves are only 1.5 games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL wild-card race, but they're still -330 to make the playoffs.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is a pitcher you want to play to the extremes due to how boom-or-bust he can be, and he's been much better at home this season. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.70 ERA and a .297 xBA through two starts. We'll take the Marlins moneyline.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Diamondbacks
-1 (-117) -150 > 7.5 (-115)
Marlins
+1.5 (-125) +135 < 7.5 (-114)
2 Marcell Ozuna over 1.5 strikeouts

Ozuna is either striking out or getting a hit over the last week, and chances are we see more of the former in this matchup. In 53 career at-bats against Zack Wheeler, Ozuna is batting just .170 with a 37.7 percent strikeout rate. 

Latest Odds:  +185
3 Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

Matthew Boyd looked sharp in his 2024 debut, going 5.1 innings and giving up only three hits and one run against the Chicago Cubs last week. Luis Gil has been up and down all season, but he can throw a gem against a Guardians lineup that ranks 29th in OPS and wRC+ against righties this month. Give us the under 8.5.
Tuesday, 7:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Guardians
+1.5 (-156) +130 > 8 (-114)
Yankees
-1 (-109) -150 < 8 (-125)
4 New York Liberty team total over 94.5

This is as severe of a mismatch as you'll find in the WNBA. The Liberty have the best offensive rating in the league, while the Dallas Wings have the worst defensive rating by a wide margin. Dallas also plays at the third-fastest pace, which will give the Liberty more possessions than they typically get. 

Latest Odds:  -115
5 Seattle Mariners moneyline first 5 innings

You don't get rich betting against the Dodgers, but if you fade them, make sure you do it when Walker Buehler is on the mound. Buehler has given up at least three earned runs in seven of his nine starts this season, and LA has gone 4-5 in those games. On the other side, Bryce Miller is coming off back-to-back scoreless outings.

Latest Odds:  +120

Betting News & Notes

MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Tue. 8/20

Read More

Golf best bets: Jack Dougherty's outright picks for the BMW Championship

Read More

MLB strikeout props for Tue. 8/20: Fade this pitcher vs. KC

Read More

College football picks, predictions: Key matchup advantages for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech and SMU vs. Nevada, Sat. 8/24

Read More

MLB best bets, picks, predictions for Tue. 8/20: It ain't Ober till it's Ober

Read More

WNBA same-game parlay for Wings vs. Liberty on Tue. 8/20

Read More

What’s On Tap: NFL Preseason, Travers Stakes, College Football Season Opens in Dublin

Read More
For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
Sports News, Rumors & Quizzes

TERMS OF SERVICE    PRIVACY POLICY    CONTACT US    MY ACCOUNT    SUBSCRIBE    ADVERTISE    JOBS

     

To ensure delivery of these emails, please add news@yardbarker.com to your address book.
If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can safely unsubscribe here.

Copyright 2025 YB Media, LLC.
1534 Plaza Lane, #146, Burlingame, CA 94010.
All Rights Reserved