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August 21, 2024: Golf best bets: This week, Rory is the story

One of our favorite ways to approach golf betting is to zig when others are zagging, and that's exactly what we're going to do this week for the BMW Championship. 

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Golf best bets: This week, Rory is the story

Rory McIlroy is still the best driver on the PGA Tour, and last week was only the second time all season he lost strokes from off the tee. Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship from Castle Pines Golf Club, an 8,130-yard behemoth of a course that will set the record for the longest yardage in PGA Tour history. One of our favorite ways to approach golf betting is to zig when others are zagging, and that's exactly what we're going to do with a pair of finishing position bets on two players no one wants to touch right now. 

Buying low at the BMW Championship

Rory McIlroy top-5 finish (+260 FanDuel)

Who in their right mind is betting on McIlroy this week? The Northern Irishman is coming off the second-worst driving week of his career last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. McIlroy shot 73-74-74 in the final three rounds to finish at 9 over par for the tournament, and he beat only one player in the 70-man field. Who would want any part of that?

Us, that's who.

Due to his uncharacteristic struggles last week, McIlroy is plummeting down the odds board for the BMW Championship. That's the perfect time to pounce on a top-three player in this field — a field that just happens to be the smallest of the season with only 50 players teeing it up. We're willing to write off last week as an anomaly. McIlroy is still the best driver of the golf ball on the PGA Tour, and last week was only the second time all season he lost strokes from off the tee. The last time he lost strokes with his driver was at the Players Championship in March, and he bounced back with a solo third in his next start. 

Will Zalatoris top-10 finish (+450 DraftKings)

Another player who can't sniff a betting card right now, Zalatoris has been patently terrible for the last four months. The 28-year-old missed five cuts and didn't finish better than T41 in his last 11 starts of the regular season, but something seemed to click last week. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Zalatoris finished T12 and gained strokes in all four major categories for the first time since the Genesis Invitational in February. 

We don't know if he's all the way back just yet, but he surely can ride some of that momentum to a golf course that should fit his eye. When Zalatoris was tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, his lone win came at TPC Colorado, another long mountain course at high elevation. Calculating distances at elevation will be crucial this week, and Zalatoris clearly knows how to navigate the thin mountain air.


In the news ...

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner won't face a suspension after testing positive for PEDs — The tennis world was up in arms on Tuesday after the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) announced that Sinner won't be suspended after failing multiple tests for the performance-enhancing drug Clostebol. The World No. 1 tested positive for Clostebol twice during the Indian Wells Open in March. Sinner claimed the drug entered his system through a spray a staff member applied to an open wound in Italy. The Italian is +280 to win the U.S. Open.

Jahmyr Gibbs on pace to play in Week 1 after suffering hamstring injury — Detroit Lions fans (and fantasy managers) were worried when Gibbs went down with a hamstring injury in practice last week, but it seems like the setback won't impact his availability for the start of the season. Head coach Dan Campbell expects Gibbs to return to practice next week and be good to go when the Lions take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Gibbs's rushing yards total for the season is set at 850.5. 

Braves knock off Phillies to inch closer in NL East race — The Phillies looked to have the NL East all but locked up a few weeks ago, but the Braves refuse to go away. Atlanta took down Philadelphia, 3-1, on Tuesday night to climb within 6.0 games on the division lead. The Phillies are still -1150 to win the NL East, but that line won't last long if the Braves find a way to sweep this crucial three-game series. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

The magic is starting to wear off for Matt Waldron and his knuckleball, as the San Diego Padres starter has given up 14 hits and 12 earned runs over his last two starts. Meanwhile, the Twins are 14-7 in games started by Simeon Woods Richardson this season. We'll take Minnesota as a road dog. 
Wednesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Twins
+1.5 (-188) +114 > 8.5 (+100)
Padres
+1.5 (-225) -125 < 8.5 (-112)
2 Nick Castellanos over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

This is a perfect setup for Castellanos. The Phillies outfielder is on an eight-game hitting streak, and he's batting .611 and slugging .833 in his career against Braves starter Max Fried. 

Latest Odds:  -145
3 Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

This is a matchup between two of the coldest lineups in MLB. The Tigers and Cubs rank 30th and 28th, respectively, in wRC+ over the last week. To help our cause, the wind is also protected to blow straight in from center field at Wrigley Field. The under 7.5 is the play.
Wednesday, 8:05 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Tigers
+1.5 (-161) +140 > 7.5 (-105)
Cubs
-1 (-112) -158 < 7.5 (-105)
4 Kansas City Royals team total over 1.5 first 3 innings

Johnny Cueto is back for his 2024 debut after putting up a 6.02 ERA and a whopping 7.8 percent home run rate last season. He should struggle out of the gate against a Royals lineup that ranks third in OPS and fourth in wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. KC also ranks third in MLB in runs per game at home. 

Latest Odds:  -110
5 Minnesota Lynx @ Las Vegas Aces

Sportsbooks continue to overrate the Aces and underrate the Lynx. Las Vegas has been a favorite in every game this season and is 10-16 against the spread, while Minnesota is 9-4 against the spread on the road and 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Give us the Lynx +7.5.
Wednesday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Lynx
+7.5 (-115) +270 > 166.5 (-110)
Aces
-7 (-110) -315 < 166.5 (-110)

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