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September 06, 2024: NFL best bets: We Love these alternate prices on Packers-Eagles

What a brutal way to kick off the NFL season. We lost the second half under by 0.5 points to ruin our SGP. Pain. Let's take a different approach with Friday night's NFC battle between the Eagles and Packers. 

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NFL best bets: We Love these alternate prices on Packers-Eagles

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK

What a brutal way to kick off the NFL season. We cashed three of our four parlay legs for Kansas City Chiefs-Baltimore Ravens rather easily, but we lost the second half under by 0.5 points to ruin our SGP. Pain.

Let's take a different approach with Friday night's NFC battle between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers.

Catch the books sleeping with alternate lines for Eagles-Packers

Christian Watson 90+ receiving yards (+1100 DraftKings)

Week 1 is our best chance to catch the sportsbooks sleeping and cash in on some juicy prop bets. Not even the smartest football minds in the world know exactly how NFL teams are going to look out of the gate, so that creates hidden value on some players they don't know how to price just yet. 

Watson battled injuries all year in 2023, but the former second-round pick has game-breaking speed and the size and skill to make contested catches down the field when healthy. Jordan Love and the Packers are going to test this questionable Eagles secondary with deep shots, and Watson is the best candidate to take the top off the defense. Green Bay has a crowded wide receiver room with no true No. 1, but Watson has the best chance to assume that role in 2024. Go prove it on Friday night. 

Jahan Dotson anytime touchdown scorer (+650 FanDuel)

It's going to be easy for defenses to forget about Dotson in the red zone when facing this Eagles offense. With Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith demanding all the attention, opposing teams will be more than happy to leave Dotson in one-on-one situations against linebackers or nickel cornerbacks. Remember, this is a former first-round draft pick with a ton of talent. He scored seven touchdowns in just 10 starts as a rookie with the Washington Commanders, and that was when defenses were actually game-planning for him.

The Packers aren't going to worry much about Dotson when the Eagles get in scoring range, and that's when Kellen Moore can strike. 


In the news ...

Chiefs survive by a toe in NFL opener — What a way to start the 2024-25 NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs knocked off the Baltimore Ravens, 27-20, on Thursday night after Isaiah Likely caught what looked to be a touchdown on the final play of the game. The Ravens were getting set to go for two and the win, but reviews showed Likely's toe grazed the white line as he came down with the catch. Likely still went off for 111 yards and a touchdown on nine catches, while Lamar Jackson threw for 273 yards and rushed for 122 more. As for the Chiefs, Rashee Rice led the way with seven catches for 103 yards, and Xavier Worthy showed his electrifying speed with 68 total yards and two touchdowns on only three touches. The Chiefs are +450 to three-peat as Super Bowl champions.

Russell Wilson dealing with calf injury, might not be ready for Week 1 — The Pittsburgh Steelers may be without their starting quarterback this Sunday. Wilson was limited in practice on Thursday due to calf tightness — the same calf he injured early on in training camp. If Wilson isn't able to play, Justin Fields will take over under center against the Atlanta Falcons. The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs in the game, but that line could be on the move depending on Wilson's ability to practice on Friday.

Jessica Pegula reaches first career grand slam final — Pegula defeated Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 on Thursday to reach the U.S. Open women's final. It will mark the American's first appearance in a grand slam championship match. On the men's side, Americans Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz will do battle on Friday with a trip to the final on the line. Pegula is a +250 underdog against Aryna Sabalenka. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Jesus Sanchez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Sanchez is the hottest hitter in the Miami Marlins lineup with his .545 batting average over the last week, and he doesn't mind going up against Zack Wheeler. In 18 career plate appearances against Wheeler, Sanchez is batting .412 with a double and only four strikeouts. 

Latest Odds:  +110
2 Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

This is a high total for the two coldest lineups in MLB. The White Sox and Red Sox rank 29th and 30th, respectively, in OPS and wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. Davis Martin has been the most impressive Chicago starter over the last few weeks, and the wind will be blowing in from center field at Fenway Park. Give us the under 8.5. 
Friday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
White Sox
+2 (-110) +240 > 8.5 (-109)
Red Sox
-1.5 (-135) -275 < 8.5 (-104)
3 Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

We have a lot of faith in both offenses down in Brazil. The Eagles are an All-Star team on that side of the ball, and they should start out strong in the first year with Moore calling the shots. Jordan Love is poised to take another step forward in 2024, and the Eagles have a ton of question marks in the linebacker room and secondary. We'll take the over 48.5.
Friday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Packers
+1.5 (-108) +105 > 48.5 (-108)
Eagles
-1.5 (-109) -118 < 48.5 (-110)
4 Cole Ragans over 7.5 Ks 

Ragans has gone over this line in three of his last four starts, and he's had success against this Minnesota Twins lineup in the past. In 55 combined plate appearances against the left-hander, current Twins hitters have a 36.4 percent strikeout rate. 

Latest Odds:  +120 
5 Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears

We can't leave you for the weekend without a pick for Sunday's NFL action. This is a classic case of a team getting too much respect in the betting market due solely to offseason hype. The Bears have the pieces to be a great team in the near future, but that likely won't start in Caleb Williams's first career start. Fade the hype and take the Titans +4.5. 
Sunday, 1:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Titans
+4.5 (-111) +190 > 43.5 (-112)
Bears
-3.5 (-110) -180 < 43.5 (-110)

Betting News & Notes

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