Yardbarker

The Bark Bets Newsletter

September 17, 2024: NFL futures: Time to jump on these awards markets

Week 2 of the NFL season has come and gone, and the season award markets are starting to take shape. Let's find the best value in those markets. 

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
Subscribe  |  Read in Browser

NFL futures: Time to jump on these awards markets

New York Jets wide receiver Mike Williams. Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 2 of the NFL season has come and gone, and the season award markets are starting to take shape. With some data now at our disposal, it's a good time to hit these award markets before the prices change drastically as the season wears on. Let's add some juicy futures to our portfolio with two longer shots in the Offensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year markets. 

Time to pounce on NFL awards

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Brian Thomas Jr. (+3000 DraftKings)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled in the passing game through two weeks, but the answer to their problems is right in front of them. Thomas, the talented rookie out of LSU, already leads the team with 141 receiving yards and a touchdown. The only issue is Trevor Lawrence has targeted him only eight times in two games. As Lawrence and Thomas built a more steady connection, Thomas is going to take over as the No. 1 receiving option in this offense sooner rather than later. 

Thomas has already displayed his explosiveness and big-play ability with 23.5 yards per catch and a 66-yard grab this past Sunday. He'll be able to put up some monster statistical games once Lawrence starts feeding him more targets. This price is only going to come down as Thomas gets more involved in the passing game. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Mike Williams (+15000 FanDuel)

The Comeback Player of the Year market is a fun one to target because of the volatility from week to week. Remember Joe Flacco's win from last season? He was priced as high as 250-1 before ripping off four straight wins to close out the season and lead the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs. It's all about catching a contender the week before his price plummets, and we could have another case of that with Williams this week. 

Williams missed the last 14 games of last season after tearing his ACL. He was fantastic before going down with that injury, as he went for 19 catches, 249 yards and a touchdown through the first three games of the season. The New York Jets are being careful with his usage early on, but Williams's snap count jumped from 18 percent in Week 1 to 65 percent in Week 2. It wouldn't be a surprise is he out-snaps Allen Lazard in Week 3.

The Jets are getting ready to take on the New England Patriots on Thursday night, and Williams could see a big role with Christian Gonzalez marking Garrett Wilson on the outside. Aaron Rodgers is going to use Williams as his deep threat this season, and if that begins this week, Williams could be 50-1 or lower in this market by Friday. 


In the news ...

Falcons win 'MNF' thriller after Eagles' late blunder — Philadelphia Eagles fans were already celebrating a "Monday Night Football" victory and a 2-0 start to the season. That's when Saquon Barkley dropped what would've been the game-ending completion for a first down, and Kirk Cousins drove the Atlanta Falcons 70 yards for a game-winning touchdown to stun the home crowd and leave with a 22-21 victory. The Falcons are +225 to win the NFC South, while the Eagles are still -135 favorites to win the NFC East. 

Panthers bench Bryce Young, will start Andy Dalton in Week 3 — The Carolina Panthers expected a bounce-back year from Young under new head coach Dave Canales, but he's only looked worse in 2024. The former No. 1 overall pick is 31/56 for 245 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions through two games, and he has the worst QBR (9.1) in the NFL. Canales is done getting embarrassed, so he made the decision Monday to bench Young and start Dalton against the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday. After the news dropped, Carolina went from +7 to +5.5 in the game almost immediately. 

Dolphins sign Tyler Huntley following Tua Tagovailoa's injury — With Tagovailoa still in concussion protocol and uncertain for the coming weeks, the Dolphins aren't waiting around to fill the missing spot. On Monday, Miami signed Huntley off the Baltimore Ravens' practice squad. Skylar Thompson is expected to start against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, but head coach Mike McDaniel won't hesitate to go to Huntley as soon as he gets familiar with the offense. The Dolphins are five-point underdogs against Seattle. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty


Quick Picks

1 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

We're interested in fading both starting pitchers in this matchup. Zebby Matthews has given up 15 earned runs in his last 10.1 innings of work, and Gavin Williams has been struggling with his command and ranks in the third percentile in average exit velocity. We'll take the over 8.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Twins
+1.5 (-182) +120 > 8 (-109)
Guardians
+1.5 (-213) -133 < 8 (-118)
2 Miami Marlins +0.5 first 5 innings

It's always scary to bet against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but if you're going to do it, make sure Bobby Miller is on the mound. Miller ranks in the first percentile in xERA (7.06), the second percentile in barrel rate (12.3 percent) and the second percentile in hard-hit rate (48.5 percent), and the Marlins have been swinging the bat well against righties. 

Latest Odds:  +114
3 Kansas City Royals -0.5 first 5 innings

Cole Ragans loves pitching against the Detroit Tigers. Current Tigers hitters are batting just .150 with a .267 xwOBA and a .258 xSLG in 48 plate appearances against the left-hander, while Casey Mize has gotten shelled against this Royals lineup in the past. 

Latest Odds:  -120
4 Salvador Perez over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Perez leads the Royals in hits (27) and RBIs (20) over the last month, and this is a juicy matchup for him. In 24 career plate appearances against Mize, Perez is batting .478 and slugging .696 with a home run and two doubles. 

Latest Odds:  +110
5 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Ryan Feltner has been a rare bright spot for the Rockies of late. The right-hander has given up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last 11 starts, and Colorado is 5-1 in his last six games. Give us the Rockies on the moneyline. 
Tuesday, 8:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Diamondbacks
-1.5 (-102) -146 > 11 (-120)
Rockies
+1.5 (-114) +130 < 11 (-110)

Betting News & Notes

MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, preview for Tuesday, Sept. 17

Read More

Dougherty's NFL Week 3 'Beat the Line' picks

Read More

Braves vs. Reds MLB parlay picks for Tuesday, Sept. 17

Read More

NFL predictions: Which 0-2 teams have the best playoff chances?

Read More

Yankees vs. Mariners prediction, pick, odds for Tuesday, Sept. 17

Read More

Nearly three-quarters of Circa Survivor field eliminated after just two weeks

Read More

Nationals vs. Mets prediction, pick, odds for Tuesday, Sept. 17

Read More
For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
Sports News, Rumors & Quizzes

TERMS OF SERVICE    PRIVACY POLICY    CONTACT US    MY ACCOUNT    SUBSCRIBE    ADVERTISE    JOBS

     

To ensure delivery of these emails, please add news@yardbarker.com to your address book.
If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can safely unsubscribe here.

Copyright 2025 YB Media, LLC.
1534 Plaza Lane, #146, Burlingame, CA 94010.
All Rights Reserved