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September 23, 2024: Today is made for a Kincaid led parlay

Coming off a wild NFL Sunday in Week 3, Roger Goodell is hooking us up with an intriguing double-header on Monday Night Football. We cashed our last primetime

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Today is made for a Kincaid led parlay

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Coming off a wild NFL Sunday in Week 3, Roger Goodell is hooking us up with an intriguing double-header on Monday Night Football. We cashed our last primetime Same Game Parlay on Thursday Night Football between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, so let's go for back-to-back winners with a juicy SGP+ for the MNF double-dip. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

Jaguars alternate spread +7.5 

We love backing desperate 0-2 teams in Week 3, especially when they've played better than their record suggests. The Jaguars could be 2-0 just as easily as they've gone 0-2, as they rank 31st in the NFL in luck rating through two weeks. The Bills, on the other hand, rank fifth in the same metric. 

All we need is Trevor Lawerence to clean up his mistakes and the offense as a whole to improve in the red zone, and the Jags should have a chance to win this game. Given all the sloppiness and coaching issues we've seen from this team through two weeks, though, we'll play it safe and trust them to keep it close.

Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions

The Bills made an effort to get Kincaid more involved in the passing offense early in their Week 2 matchup against the Miami Dolphins. Once Buffalo took a big lead, Josh Allen barely had to throw the ball the rest of the game. We expect Allen to air it out more on Monday night in what should be a closer game, and Kincaid is the receiving weapon he trusts the most in this offense. 

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Over 46.5

The Commanders look like a textbook over team early in the season. Washington can move the ball with Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr., and the defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per play (6.2). It would've given up way more than 18 points against the New York Giants last week if Brian Daboll was smart enough to add another kicker with Graham Gano injured. 

The Bengals offense figured some things out against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, putting up 25 points and going for 5.2 yards per play against a sturdy defense. This feels like a shootout.

Mike Gesicki under 27.5 receiving yards

Gesicki is off to a hot start with 10 catches for 109 yards through two games, but this pace isn't sustainable. The tight end has played only 48 of the team's 115 offensive snaps (41.7 percent) so far. Joe Burrow has been feeding Gesicki with targets with Tee Higgins off the field, but the talented wide receiver is returning for his debut on Monday night. Gesicki will take a back seat in this passing attack. 

Throw those four legs together, and we get a +738 SGP+ on FanDuel. Let's cash another one!

In the news ...

Underdogs continue to dominate in the NFL — It's a bad year to hammer favorites or compete in a survivor pool, as underdogs continue to outperform expectations early in the NFL season. Underdogs went 7-6 against the spread on Sunday, and all seven won outright. Andy Dalton led the Carolina Panthers to their first win of the year against the Las Vegas Raiders, Bo Nix sliced up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to record his first career win with the Denver Broncos and Matthew Stafford led a heroic comeback to give the Los Angeles Rams a crucial win against the San Francisco 49ers. If you want to ride the underdog train, the Jaguars are +210 and the Commanders are +295 to win on Monday Night Football.

Chiefs survive upset bid against Falcons on SNF — Underdogs have been coming for the Super Bowl contenders early in the season, but the Chiefs have dodged every bullet thus far. On Sunday Night Football, Kansas City escaped with a 22-17 victory against the Atlanta Falcons to improve to 3-0 on the year. Rashee Rice led the way on offense with 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, and Nick Bolton shut the door with a game-winning tackle on 4th and 1 while the Falcons were driving. The Chiefs are +500 favorites to win their third straight Super Bowl.

Caitlin Clark, Fever get blown out in first playoff game — The WNBA playoffs got underway on Sunday, and the Indiana Fever are already in big trouble. Indiana got blown out, 93-69, in Game 1 against the Connecticut Sun, while Clark struggled with just 11 points on 4-17 from the field and 2-13 from three. Elsewhere around the league, the New York Liberty handled the Atlanta Dream, the Minnesota Lynx escaped against the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces beat the Seattle Storm. The Liberty are +125 favorites to win the WNBA title. 

Quick Picks

1 Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola has dominated this Cubs lineup throughout his career, as current Chicago hitters are batting just .181 with a .276 xwOBA and a 28.9 percent strikeout rate in 135 plate appearances against him. The Cubs are rolling with a bullpen game, and their pen has the third-highest FIP (4.93) in the league over the last two weeks. Give us the Phils -1.5.
Monday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Cubs
+1.5 (-125) +163 > 8 (-115)
Phillies
-1.5 (+112) -188 < 8 (-125)
2 Cody Bellinger under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Bellinger won't be thrilled about his matchup on Monday night. In 20 career plate appearances against Nola, the Chicago Cubs outfielder is batting only .158 with eight strikeouts and no extra-base hits. He's also batting just .211 with one run scored over the last week.

Latest Odds:  -130 DK
3 Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Tanner Houck and Chris Bassitt have fantastic track records against these respective lineups. Current Blue Jays hitters are batting just .176 with a .290 xwOBA against Houck, while current Red Sox hitters are batting .197 with a .260 xwOBA against Bassitt. We'll take the under 8.
Monday, 7:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Red Sox
+1.5 (-205) +100 > 8 (-110)
Blue Jays
+1.5 (-176) -112 < 8 (-133)
4 Matt Chapman to record 2+ total bases

Chapman isn't swinging the bat well right now, but this is a great matchup for him to snap out of his funk. In 15 career plate appearances against Eduardo Rodriguez, Chapman is batting .429 and slugging .714 with four doubles.

Latest Odds:  -110 FD

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