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October 09, 2024: MLB playoffs: A dinger prop for each DS game

What a day we have on deck for die-hard baseball fans. Say hello to Wednesday's loaded slate of four MLB divisional series games.  

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB playoffs: A dinger prop for each DS game

Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12). Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

What a day we have on deck for die-hard baseball fans. Say hello to Wednesday's loaded slate of four MLB divisional series games. With a full schedule of playoff baseball on deck, let's put together a fun, all-day sweat with one home run prop for each game. 

Hunting for divisional series dingers 

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

Kyle Manzardo (+650 DraftKings)

Manzardo has a 47.1 percent hard-hit rate and a 41.2 percent fly-ball rate over the last three weeks. He leads the Guardians in slugging percentage (.676) and xSLG (.528) against 4-seam fastballs this season, and Tigers starter Keider Montero throws his 4-seamer 41.7 percent of the time. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Kyle Schwarber (+350 FanDuel)

Schwarber is typically priced around +200 to hit a home run, so we'll gladly take a stab at the +350 in a familiar matchup. In 24 career at-bats against Mets starter Jose Quintana, Schwarber is batting .292 with a home run and a double. Schwarber actually had a higher batting average (.300) and slugging percentage (.490) against lefties than he did against righties in the regular season. 

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr. (+450 DK)

Witt is returning home to Kauffman Stadium for the first time this postseason, so you know we're backing him with a home run prop. The Royals star hit .382 and slugged .676 with 14 home runs at home in the regular season. Witt is ice cold in the ALDS, but that's giving us a break on his price in his return to Kauffman. 

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

Shohei Ohtani (+340 FD)

Padres starter Dylan Cease is a decent target to fade with a home run prop because he throws his 4-seam fastball 43.5 percent of the time and gives up an 8.5 percent barrel rate. Ohtani has a .722 xSLG and a ridiculous 65.9 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season, which explains why he's hit three homers off Cease in only 17 ABs against him. 


In the news ...

Jets fire Robert Saleh after 2-3 start — The New York Jets fired Saleh on Tuesday, two days after their mistake-filled loss to the Minnesota Vikings in London. Saleh was 20-36 in three-plus years as the head coach and never recorded a season better than 7-10. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was named the interim head coach. With a new leader in charge, the Jets are +350 to win the AFC East. 

Mets, Padres inch closer to NLCS matchup — The NLCS may be starting to materialize. On Tuesday night, the New York Mets smoked the Philadelphia Phillies, 7-2, and the San Diego Padres squeaked past the Los Angeles Dodgers, 6-5, to take 2-1 leads in their respective series. New York and San Diego are one win away from punching their tickets to the NLCS. The Padres are +115 to win the National League, while the Mets are +210.

Texans place Nico Collins on injured reserve — Collins tweaked his hamstring on a 67-yard touchdown catch against the Buffalo Bills, and the injury turned out to be worse than we thought. On Wednesday morning, the Houston Texans placed the star wide receiver on IR, meaning he'll miss at least the next four weeks of action. Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell will need to step up for C.J. Stroud in his absence. The Texans are still -470 favorites to win the AFC South.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Alex Cobb over 12.5 outs recorded

Cobb made his season debut on Aug. 9 and got shelled for nine hits and five runs, but he's been great since then with only five hits allowed and one earned run in his last 11.2 innings of work. The veteran righty cleared this line in all three of his starts this season, and the Guardians want him to eat up as many innings as possible.

Latest Odds:  +100
2 Ranger Suarez under 1.5 earned runs allowed

Suarez struggled down the stretch after coming off the injured list, but we're trusting his postseason history here. In nine career playoff appearances, the Phillies lefty has a 1.62 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP. Philadelphia will also be quick to pull Suarez at the first sign of trouble. 

Latest Odds:  +105

3 Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases 

Freeman is having a quiet series so far, but this is his chance to make a mark against Dylan Cease. In 11 career at-bats against Cease, Freeman is batting .455 with four singles and a double. 

Latest Odds:  -120


Betting News & Notes

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Phillies vs. Mets prediction, pick, odds for NLDS Game 4 on Wednesday, Oct. 9

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Yankees vs. Royals prediction, pick, odds for ALDS Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 9

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Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, picks, odds for NLDS Game 4 on Wednesday, Oct. 9

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