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October 14, 2024: Monday Night Football should be Easy Breece-y

After a high-scoring Sunday in the NFL, the Week 6 slate comes to a close on "Monday Night Football" with an AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets.

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Monday Night Football should be Easy Breece-y

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

After a high-scoring Sunday in the NFL, the Week 6 slate comes to a close on "Monday Night Football" with an AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. We're seeing some value down the board in the prop markets for this matchup, so consider this your formal invitation to join us for a plus-money prop party to kick off the new week.

A plus-money prop party for 'MNF'

Breece Hall 100+ rushing yards (+500 DraftKings)

The Jets need to find a way to get Hall going in the running game. The talented running back has recorded 19 carries for only 27 yards over the last two weeks, while Aaron Rodgers has attempted 96 passes in that span. New York has to flip that offensive game plan, and this is the perfect matchup to deploy it.

The Bills rank 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per rush (5.2). Derrick Henry, the best running back Buffalo has faced this season, torched this defense for 199 rushing yards on 24 carries in Week 4. The Bills consistently give up explosive runs, so Hall should be able to break a few long ones in what should be a busy night for him on the ground.

Dawson Knox anytime touchdown scorer (+600 DK)

Josh Allen is quickly losing faith in his new wide receiving corps. The Bills quarterback has completed only 25 of his 59 pass attempts (42.4 percent) for 311 yards over the last two weeks. What's the best way to get back in a groove when the wide receivers can't be trusted? Go back to old reliable, of course. 

In this case, old reliable is Knox. Allen has targeted Knox 271 times and connected with him for 22 touchdowns during their tenure in Buffalo. Dalton Kincaid presents more upside as a receiver, but Knox is still playing close to 50 percent of the team's offensive snaps every week. If Allen wants to get this passing offense going again, it would make sense for him to target the weapon he feels the most comfortable targeting near the end zone. 

In the news ...

Favorites get back on track in NFL Week 6 — The 2024 NFL season was shaping up to be the year of the underdog, but favorites finally got their revenge in Week 6. NFL favorites have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread through 13 games this week. The most notable result was the Detroit Lions laying the smackdown on the Dallas Cowboys in a 47-9 road victory. The only underdogs to win outright were the Chicago Bears against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts against the Tennessee Titans. If you think the favorites keep rolling, you can take the Bills -1 on Monday Night Football.

Aidan Hutchinson fractures tibia and fibula, could be out for the season — Although the Lions had the most impressive win in Week 6, they left Dallas with a much bigger loss. Hutchinson, who's already racked up 7.5 sacks this season, collided with a teammate during a pass rush and fractured his tibia and fibula on the play. The star defensive end had surgery on Sunday night. Hutchinson is expected to make a full recovery, but he might not be able to suit up for the rest of the season. The Lions are still +370 to win the NFC.

Dodgers dominate Mets to take 1-0 lead in NLCS — The Los Angeles Dodgers made quite the statement in Game 1 of the NLCS, as they blanked the New York Mets, 9-0, to take a 1-0 series lead. Jack Flaherty was lights out with only two hits allowed in 7.0 innings, while Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts combined for four RBIs and three runs scored in the win. Los Angeles is now -330 to win the NLCS and advance to the World Series. 

Quick Picks

1 Sean Manaea over 15.5 outs recorded

The Mets are in a tough spot after having to blow through five pitchers in Game 1, so they need Manaea to eat up as many innings as he can in Game 2. The left-hander's wonky delivery can frustrate this Dodgers lineup and force a ton of chases out of the zone.

Latest Odds:  -125 DK
2 Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

We're fading both starting pitchers in Game 1 of the ALCS. Carlos Rodon ranks in the fourth percentile in barrel rate this season and got shelled for seven hits and four runs in his first playoff start. On the other side, current Yankees hitters have a .379 xwOBA and a .519 xSLG in 88 plate appearances against Alex Cobb. Give us the over 7.5.
Monday, 7:38 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Guardians
+1.5 (-160) +140 > 7.5 (+100)
Yankees
-1 (-115) -160 < 7.5 (-115)
3 Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

We're expecting some runs in this game, and Soto should play a big part in that. In 12 career plate appearances against Cobb, Soto is batting .636 and slugging a ridiculous 1.273 with two home runs and a double.

Latest Odds:  -120 DK

Betting News & Notes

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets predictions, odds, preview: Raybon's NFL picks for 'Monday Night Football'

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Bills vs. Jets parlay for +1500 'Monday Night Football' SGP

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Bills vs. Jets anytime touchdown scorer props for 'Monday Night Football' 

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MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's predictions, expert picks, odds, for Monday, Oct. 14

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Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, pick, odds for NLCS Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 14

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College football odds, picks: Week 8 early bets for Georgia vs. Texas, Iowa vs. Michigan State and more

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