10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 5: Notre Dame vs Arkansas, Alabama vs Georgia, Lots of Overs

No way, no how, no chance could you have watched San Diego State from the start of this season and think it had a prayer of staying with a Cal team that was in full control against Minnesota.

In the 28 years I've been doing this, the total domination by the Aztecs in their 34-0 win has to be the single weirdest, blindside wrong call I can remember, especially as the No. 1. 

I thought Illinois would come close against Indiana. Oops. I thought Oklahoma was about to rise up and rock against Tulsa. Double-oops. 

Short memory, gear up for the next play, and ... Week 5, you owe me.

Record So Far: 21-19
@PeteFiutak

10. Florida State at Virginia

Line: Florida State -7 
Pick: Florida State 
- Game Preview, Prediction

If you're ever going to fade me - and occasionally, you totally should - this is the one to go with because I am next-level, Golden Bachelor-awful at picking Friday night games.

Thursday games are no problem - overloving me some me, I tend to crush those. Friday? Forget it - I do buy the belief that Friday games, even more than Thursday, throw off a team's rhythm.

Whatever. As good as Virginia is, and as dangerous as the offense is, run the ball and you beat the Cavaliers. (And Florida State is No. 1 in the nation in rushing, even if it's because it played West Texas A&M and Kent State.)

9. Alabama at Georgia

Line: Point Total 52.5
Pick: Over
- Game Preview, Prediction

Aware that I'm supposed to pick things and know what I'm doing, this is a flat-out coin flip game. I'm picking Georgia and don't care about the 2.5 or 3, but that's not why you called. 

These two defenses have a ton of NFL talent, and the offenses will each flirt with 30 points anyway.

8. Tennessee at Mississippi State

Line: Point Total 62.5
Pick: Over
- Game Preview, Prediction

You know how hard it is to get past a 62.5 point. total? Mississippi State hasn't been close to that in any of its three games against FBS teams.

On the flip side, all four Tennessee games went roaring past the mark - last week, the Vols put up 56 on UAB. I'm going with the latter. 

These two and their loaded passing games should trade haymakers all game long.

7. New Mexico State at New Mexico

Line: New Mexico -14.5
Pick: New Mexico State 

Begging for your forgiveness on this indulgence, but I have to.

Streaks are all fluky. They're just random outcomes that have nothing to do with each other. The ball isn't hitting black just because it landed on red the last ten spins. However ...

2018 was the last time a New Mexico vs New Mexico State rivalry game was decided by more than 14 points. The last five were close, and nine of the last ten were decided by fewer than two touchdowns.

6. Notre Dame at Arkansas

Line: Point Total: 63.5
Pick: Florida State
- Game Preview, Prediction

Again, if getting past 62.5 is hard, 63.5 is even scarier.

Notre Dame and Texas A&M put up 81. The Irish and Purdue combined for 86. Arkansas is averaging 43.5 points per game, and now it gets an Irish D that's struggling against the run. 

Notre Dame will hang at least 40. Do your part, Hogs.

5. BYU at Colorado

Line: BYU -6.5
Pick: BYU
- Game Preview, Prediction  

You know that Army team that won at Kansas State? It couldn't do anything in a 28-6 loss on Thursday night at East Carolina.

BYU's running game worked just fine at East Carolina last week in a 34-13 win.

I have a sneaky feeling that BYU is going to be a thing in the Big 12. It can run, it can stop the run, and it'll do both in Boulder.

4. Utah State at Vanderbilt

Line: Point Total 58.5
Pick: Over
- Game Preview, Prediction

When I first took a guess at the point total, I thought it would be well into the 60s, considering Texas A&M beat Utah State 44-22 a few weeks ago.

Nope.

Vanderbilt has scored 44 points or more in three of its four games, including 70 against Georgia State. Utah State has scored 97 points combined in its last two games, and it'll carry its share of the load.

3. Notre Dame at Arkansas

Line: Notre Dame -4.5
Pick: Notre Dame
- Game Preview, Prediction

Here's the deal, so just get used to it. (Unless the Irish biff along the way, in which case, cheerfully ignore the blather I'm about to spew.)

I believe Notre Dame is running the table, the defense will get fixed by the end of the year, and it'll do some more damage once it gets into the College Football Playoff. 

Lines of 4.5 are for the NFL. If you like a college team to win, and the line is less than a touchdown, just do it. The Irish will run for close to 300 yards on the Hogs, and while it will be close, the 4.5 is a cost-of-doing-business line.

2. UMass at Missouri

Line: Point Total, 55.5
Pick: Missouri
- Game Preview, Prediction 

For all those who have been with me for years, and for those new to the party ...

If there's a reasonable chance that one side can hit the over by itself, take the shot. 

The worry here is that UMass doesn't score, or Mizzou throttles down, like it did in the 45-3 win over the Minutemen last year. But with two weeks off after this, and with Alabama next, the backups will keep trying.

Now to set the dial on serious. Before taking one step further, I beg of you, just walk away. 

We've done some fine work here, and we've had a few laughs, but go, get out, and look at a tree or something, because ...

1. San Diego State at Northern Illinois

Line: San Diego State -2.5
Pick: San Diego State 

We don't parlay here. Rule No. 2: We don't chase. Rule No. 3: We really don't parlay here. Rule No. 4: Revenge picks never, ever, ever, ever work.

I'm not parlaying - we don't parlay - but after last week with my call that Cal would roll with ease, I'm chasing and revenging triple-hard here. So, again ... just walk away ...

Northern Illinois played Maryland tough in a 20-9 loss, and wasn't awful against Mississippi State. However, the offense is among the worst in America - it struggled against Holy Cross, too.

San Diego State was totally miserable against a bad Washington State team, became the 1985 Chicago Bears last week against Cal - those Bears couldn't do anything against a totally dominant Aztec D - and yes, there's a massive flake factor happening here.

However, if the team that played like that in Snapdragon shows up in DeKalb ...

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.