Drafting NFL players is hard. Looking back at where a player should have been drafted with 12 years of context on how their career panned out is easy. Nonetheless, it's an interesting exercise to wonder how a draft class would end up if the league's general managers were omniscient.
Until 2022, former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith was even viewed as a second-round bust. Despite being a star at West Virginia, Smith slid to the 39th overall pick in 2013, where he was selected by the New York Jets. But Smith fizzled out in New York after four seasons, beginning his journey back to being a quality starter with the Seahawks.
Smith's resurgence in Seattle and potential sustained success with the Las Vegas Raiders moved him up to the first round in Pro Football Focus' 2013 NFL redraft. That sent him to the Dallas Cowboys at No. 18 overall — setting him up for success much quicker in his career.
"It was a slow burn for Smith to become one of the better starting quarterbacks in the NFL, which makes his position in a redraft a bit tricky," PFF writers Max Chadwick, Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema wrote. "But now knowing what he is capable of, perhaps a different draft spot gets us to his best years quicker. He did not earn a single-season PFF passing grade above 75.0 as a starter until 2022 but has since recorded marks of 75.4, 82.1 and 81.9."
In his five total seasons with the Seahawks (three as the starter), Smith totaled a 68.5 percent completion percentage, 76 passing touchdowns and 36 interceptions in 54 games. He went 28-24 as the team's starter after holding a 12-18 record with the Jets. It was a resurgence that was unmatched until Sam Darnold — also drafted by the Jets — rejuvenated his career with the Minnesota Vikings last season. Darnold is now also set to become the Seahawks' starter in 2025.
Seattle didn't have a first-round pick in 2013, so there was no new pick for the team in the redraft. It was also one of the team's worst drafts of that era, so no other players the Seahawks selected rose into the inaugural round.
Smith landing with the Cowboys absolutely could have altered the course of his career. Dallas was coming off an 8-8 season and quickly became an NFC contender over the next few seasons at the back-end of Tony Romo's career. Smith could have sat for a year or two to learn under Romo and develop.
Instead of becoming a starter again at 32 years old, Smith could have had a chance to maximize his prime. However, with every circumstance being different, it's impossible to predict exactly how Smith's career would have played out.
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