2018 NFL division preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos

2017 record: 5-11 (fourth in AFC West)

Key additions: CB Tramaine Brock, S Su’a Cravens, CB Adam Jones, QB Case Keenum, P Marquette King, DT Clinton McDonald, S Shamarko Thomas, RT Jared Veldheer

Notable losses: RB C.J. Anderson, OL Allen Barbre, RB Jamaal Charles, WR Bennie Fowler, TE Virgil Green, WR Cody Latimer, LB Corey Nelson, QB Brock Osweiler, QB Trevor Siemian, CB Aqib Talib

Top draft picks: OLB Bradley Chubb, WR Courtland Sutton, RB Royce Freeman, CB Isaac Yiadom

2018 outlook: The past two seasons, the Broncos’ offense held back a championship-caliber defense. One of the worst quarterback seasons in franchise history (Siemian, Osweiler and Paxton Lynch combined for 22 interceptions; Siemian ranked last in 2017 Total QBR) prompted Denver to gamble that Keenum’s Vikings showing was indicative of future success  rather than a well-timed outlier. Keenum, however, will have more help than Siemian did.

From 2015-17, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders did the heavy lifting and just about all lifting associated with the Broncos’ air attack. Courtland Sutton and possibly DaeSean Hamilton and Jake Butt will bring vital auxiliary help. Sanders and Thomas are probably set for their finale together given their 2019 cap numbers ($17.5M and $12.9M, respectively), but this season features Denver’s most weaponry since before Julius Thomas and Wes Welker’s 2014 injuries. The Broncos' offensive line has uncertainties, however. Left tackle Garett Bolles was spotty as a rookie, and for a fifth straight season the Broncos open with a new right tackle. (A declining Veldheer takes over.) 

Denver’s defensive stats last season reflected its woeful quarterback situation. The Broncos ranked third in yardage but allowed 23.9 points per game (22nd). Pass rushers and cornerbacks have powered this team for years, but Talib’s departure will test the formula. Brock will fill Bradley Roby’s old right cornerback role in nickel sets when All-Pro Chris Harris shifts inside, and Denver’s pass rush has a better chance to affect games this season. Chubb brings elite skills to DeMarcus Ware’s old job and could unleash Von Miller (10 sacks last year, the lowest full-season total of his career). Despite just five Super Bowl starters remaining, ingredients for a top-caliber defense still exist.

Are they better or worse than last season? Probably much better. Beyond Anderson’s 1,000-yard season, nothing went right for the 2017 Broncos’ offense. Keenum (first in QB DVOA last season) is the best Broncos QB since the 2014 version of Peyton Manning.

Best-case scenario: Because of Keenum’s strange career arc, these Broncos have a wide range of possibilities. The best of these would be an AFC West championship and a chance to deploy its deeper roster in the playoffs. That’s in play in an unpredictable division.

Worst-case scenario: Texans/Rams Keenum resurfaces, and the much-hyped rookie class shows it’s not ready to make important contributions in this pivotal season. This would push the Broncos closer to a full-scale rebuild.

Record prediction: 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs

2017 record: 10-6 (AFC West champion)

Key additions: CB David Amerson, CB Kendall Fuller, QB Chad Henne, ILB Anthony Hitchens, QB Matt McGloin, CB Orlando Scandrick, WR Sammy Watkins, RB Damien Williams, NT Xavier Williams

Notable losses: CB Kenneth Acker, CB Phillip Gaines, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, NT Bennie Logan, CB Terrance Mitchell, DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches, S Ron Parker, CB Marcus Peters, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, QB Alex Smith, RB Charcandrick West, WR Albert Wilson, ILB Ramik Wilson

Top draft picks: OLB Breeland Speaks, NT Derrick Nnadi, OLB Dorian O’Daniel

2018 outlook: In trading Smith and giving the keys to Patrick Mahomes, the AFC West’s most reliable team shook up its operation more than at any point during Andy Reid's tenure. For a generation, the Chiefs trotted out a succession of free agents or trade acquisitions at quarterback — including ex-49ers Steve DeBerg, Joe Montana, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Smith — but now are attempting to groom a high-end prospect for the first time in over 30 years.

Smith offered a high floor and guided K.C. to four playoff brackets in five years (and five winning seasons); Mahomes brings tantalizing talent but will not be as reliable in 2018. Fortunately, the Chiefs have a veteran offensive line and the NFL's best skill-position quartet in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt and Watkins. While Watkins isn’t worth $16 million per year, Mahomes has better weaponry than Smith did in any of his five years in western Missouri.

Those weapons will need to put up points often because the Chiefs have issues across their defense. The No. 31 DVOA defense before Peters was traded, the Chiefs have injury-prone edge rushers, are thin up front beyond Chris Jones and have a dominant safety (Eric Berry, 30 by season's end) coming off a second severe injury. The Defcon 1-level situation in Kansas City, though, exists at cornerback. Peters’ volatility notwithstanding, he's an elite ballhawk and changed games for three seasons (and the Rams' offer wasn't worth the trade). The Fuller-fronted replacement crop has much to prove.

Are they better or worse than last season? A bit worse. That said, Mahomes brings franchise-changing potential. However, future Chiefs outfits — presumably with better defensive personnel — will reap the benefits if the new gunslinger is legit.

Best-case scenario: If the Chiefs have a franchise passer from the jump and keep Berry, Justin Houston and Dee Ford healthy, they can three-peat in the West for the first time and make noise in January (in theory, because January's been a notorious Chiefs stumbling block).

Worst-case scenario: Mahomes needs more time, and Kansas City’s pass defense is torched frequently against a tough schedule.

Record prediction: 9-7

Los Angeles Chargers

2017 record: 9-7 (second in AFC West)

Key additions: TE Virgil Green, C Mike Pouncey, QB Geno Smith, K Caleb Sturgis

Notable losses: DE/LB Jerry Attaochu, S Tre Boston, QB Kellen Clemens, TE Jeff Cumberland, TE Antonio Gates, OL Chris Hairston, LB Chris McCain, OL Matt Slauson, LB Korey Toomer, OL Kenny Wiggins

Top draft picks: S Derwin James, LB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Justin Jones

2018 outlook: Nearly joining the 1992 Chargers as the only team to surmount an 0-4 deficit and make the playoffs, the Bolts are positioned well for a quality follow-up. The Raiders tumbled from their lofty 2016 perch, the Chiefs traded a starting quarterback who beat the Bolts eight straight times and the Broncos signed a high-variance journeyman passer. The Philip Rivers-led roster looks like the division’s best, but does the fact that the Bolts are devoid of a home-field advantage intervene during a season that looks otherwise promising?

Although Hunter Henry went down early, Rivers has plenty of skill-position talent on which to rely. Melvin Gordon made it through 16 NFL games for the first time. Keenan Allen played a full season after missing 23 games from 2015-16. Mike Williams should make a much more relevant statement about his professional capabilities than he did as an injured rookie, Tyrell Williams (1,787 air yards since 2016) is an underappreciated auxiliary target and Travis Benjamin is a streaky deep threat. Add to this the Bolts' Pouncey signing and Forrest Lamp being healthy, and this is an attack that could threaten any AFCer.

Last season’s No. 3 scoring defense now has James — the player most viewed as 2018's Round 1 steal. The Bolts remain geared around explosive edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram (41.5 sacks as a pair) and have young cornerbacks Trevor Williams and Desmond King to compensate for Jason Verrett’s unavailability alongside Casey Hayward. Los Angeles’ run defense (31st last season) didn’t receive many reinforcements, but overall the Bolts boast the division’s most balanced starting lineup.

Are they better or worse than last season? Slightly better. James and Pouncey, and a healthier Mike Williams, should cancel out Henry’s "classic Chargers"-style setback. Though, Gates will probably still hover as an option if/when the Bolts see scant tight end production.

Best-case scenario: The Bolts (nine or fewer wins every year of the decade) finally put it together and become a frightening No. 3 seed. Would their outlook be even better in San Diego with a fan base that wasn't the NFL's smallest? A playoff game at StubHub Center would be quite weird.

Worst-case scenario: Maybe the best Chargers roster since the LaDainian Tomlinson years can’t stay healthy and sees a less well-rounded rival steal the division.

Record prediction: 10-6

Oakland Raiders

2017 record: 6-10 (third in AFC West)

Key additions: OL Oday Aboushi, WR Martavis Bryant, DL Tank Carradine, TE Derek Carrier, S Marcus Gilchrist, CB Leon Hall, WR Dwayne Harris, LB Derrick Johnson, LB Emmanuel Lamur, RB Doug Martin, CB Rashaan Melvin, WR Jordy Nelson, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, DE Frostee Rucker, FB Keith Smith, LB Tahir Whitehead, LB Kyle Wilber, CB Daryl Worley, DT Gabe Wright, CB Shareece Wright

Notable losses: DE Khalil Mack, CB David Amerson, DE Denico Autry, LB NaVorro Bowman, CB T.J. Carrie, WR Michael Crabtree, K Sebastian Janikowski, P Marquette King, DB Keith McGill, T Marshall Newhouse, FB Jamize Olawale, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Sean Smith, DL Jihad Ward

Top draft picks: LT Kolton Miller, DT P.J. Hall, OL Branden Parker, DE Arden Key

2018 outlook: Two seasons after going 12-4, the Raiders moved in a vastly different direction. Jon Gruden is back, and he’s increased the Raiders roster’s average age — among other changes — upon returning. The 10-year “Monday Night Football” analyst signed 11 players who were 30 or older — by far the most of any team this offseason — and is shipping out recent Reggie McKenzie draft picks (one of them being one of the best draft choices in Raiders history). This made for an interesting offseason.

A day after seeing what the Rams' Aaron Donald extension did to the defensive contract landscape, the Raiders traded their best player since Charles Woodson's first stay. Khalil Mack's departure guts the Raiders' 2018 defense, but it looked like the team was already going to struggle this season. Now, it's essentially a certainty the Raiders will endure a rough season in their penultimate Bay Area year. Northern California Raider fans have now seen Mark Davis commit to making the franchise the only one in NFL history to leave its original market twice, and after a bounce-back 2016 provided hope after more than a decade of futility, observed Davis and de facto GM Gruden pull the trigger on a controversial deal. 

Mack's rookie contract containing a fifth-year option, while Derek Carr's and Gabe Jackson's didn't, allowed the Raiders to delay paying their best player while extending his important but inferior draft-class peers. On Saturday, the Raiders shipped off their best draft pick since 1998 (Woodson) and a possible Hall of Famer, doing so potentially against McKenzie's wishes. While the future picks are nice, the Raiders had a top-10 NFL player; their goal with the newly acquired 2019 and '20 first-rounders will be to find a prospect remotely close to Mack's level. And when you look at Gruden teams' draft histories, excepting Woodson and dominant specialists, they aren't pretty. (And the Bucs' top Gruden-era pick, Aqib Talib, peaked elsewhere.) 

This is a massive risk, one that ends the Gruden 2.0 honeymoon, and it sends a poor message to current Raiders and Raider fans.

While the Mack trade is now the Raiders' offseason story, Carr will at least be Gruden’s best quarterback since probably Rich Gannon. Gruden’s said Carr has more talent than anyone he’s coached — which seems a bit hyperbolic considering Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Derrick Brooks played for Gruden. The 55-year-old coach is by far the best of Carr's career, and there's room for improvement. Carr's 6.8 yards-per-attempt figure ranked 20th last season, and that figure was only at 7.0 during his MVP3 2016 slate. Oakland’s interior offensive line is as good as any in football, but the Raiders' skill-position talent (three of the five starters are over 30 after the Nelson signing, and Amari Cooper is coming off a down season) adds to the mystery surrounding this team.

Even if the Mack deal may prove ill-fated, Gruden was right to scrap most of the Raiders’ previous defensive blueprints. The team hasn't produced a top-16 unit since 2010. Oakland’s staff is big on rookies Key and Maurice Hurst as interior rushers, and a healthy season of Gareon Conley would be crucial to his development. But questions abound, and there don’t seem to be many long-term answers penciled in as starters on this defense.

Are they better or worse than last season? The Raiders flat-lined after their 2016 rise, and this year's roster looked misshapen before the Mack trade. This team appears much worse than last year's. Thanks to that 10-year contract, Gruden will get time to rebuild. But his first offseason back brought chaos.

Best-case scenario: A lot could happen for a Raiders team that now has a better coach, but part-time general manager Gruden's roster will limit coach Gruden. Strong debuts from the 2018 rookies will be a great place to start this new era, because it's hard to foresee a competitive season.

Worst-case scenario: Out of the league since 2008, Gruden shows he has a lot of catching up to do and this strange roster -- wounded by the trade of its best player -- fails to string together many wins.

Record prediction: 4-12